The breathless media coverage of the 2016 campaign, already well under way, misses some key factors.
Older voters may recall a time when it wasn’t until after Labor Day that these quadrennial marathons got truly serious. At this early stage, factors such as name recognition play a much larger role than they will as the season matures. Outrage over the failure of incumbents to resolve problems and of the failure of the opposing party to enforce alternative solutions allows “outsider” candidates to gain more traction than they are likely to keep later on.
Of course, when there is no incumbent, the races tend to be more exciting. But this edition of the presidential slugfest has several additional factors which make it even more noteworthy.
More so than almost any of its predecessors, the current administration has sought, in its own words, to fundamentally transform the nation. Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, have always ferociously fought over individual issues or general approaches to resolving national problems. But Mr. Obama has challenged several basics of domestic and foreign policy that had never been all that seriously questioned before, especially the primacy of the Constitution, America’s relationship with key allies, it’s overarching world role, the wisdom of the free market, and the sanctity of U.S. borders.
Whether one agrees with the President or not, the outcome of his endeavors has not met with any significant measure of success. Nor has he played gently with his political opponents. Hillary Clinton, his former Secretary of State and the leading candidate to succeed him, is seen as someone who is ideologically similar. She, too, deals roughly with ideological opponents.
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The combination of these factors has given rise to an exceptional sense of urgency and enthusiasm on the part of his opposition, combined with a belief that the Republican Party has a very good chance of victory in 2016, as they did in the past elections that saw the GOP obtain or keep control of the House, Senate, and most governorships. But within the Republican Party, that recent success at the ballot box did not translate into significant progress in altering White House policies, a failure that has infuriated GOP voters and some legislators such as Ted Cruz.
The poor health of the U.S. economy has also sparked outrage among voters across the ideological spectrum, giving rise to support for candidates not affiliated with politics as usual. Hence the popularity of two men at polar opposites of the ideological spectrum, socialist Senator Bernie Sanders and self-proclaimed Conservative Donald Trump.
Sanders has also gained traction, as will Vice President Joe Biden when, as expected, he declares his candidacy next month, from Ms. Clinton’s expanding legal problems. The former Secretary of State could well be facing substantial felony charges in the near future due to her failure to observe established security protocols for her official emails. A substantial percentage of classified information has been found in her personal email account. A far lesser breach occurred when General David Petraeus provided a few hand written notes to his trusted biographer, leading to his dismissal and criminal prosecution. Clinton’s breach is vastly greater, and it is difficult to see how she can avoid a similar fate.
Republican front runner Donald Trump will also face significant challenges as the 2016 contest matures. As his prior relationship (including substantial donations) to Democrats, especially the Clintons, becomes better known, as the practical impediments to some of his strategies (can 11 million aliens truly be rounded up and deported?) get more widely discussed, it may become evident that his numbers have already peaked.