In Asia there is a serious potential for conflict in the South China Sea over Taiwan. The US State Department on Wednesday expressed its “deepening concern” about the threat of worsening violence in Mali as the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission there (MINUSMA) begins its withdrawal. In Europe, Russia’s incursions in Ukraine and elsewhere are of no less concern. Western military analysts worry that the fragility of peace in Western Europe may not be sustainable if Putin’s mercenaries, fighting under the banner of the Wagner Group, create provocations in other parts of Europe. Over the last four weeks, 5,000 soldiers from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group have reorganized inside Belarus. There are indications that they are preparing to interfere militarily in other countries in the region. How high must the level of provocation rise to legitimate a kinetic response from Western Europe? This is one of the questions floating around leaders in Washington this week.
Earlier this month, two Belarusian helicopters violated Polish airspace. “It seems that Belarus is becoming a permanent vector of Russian interference against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members on the alliance’s eastern flank,” according to Jakub Bornio of the Jamestown Foundation. It is not the first time Belarus has gained attention over its activities. In 2009, the joint Belarusian-Russian Zapad exercises simulated a nuclear strike on Warsaw. This was presumably to discourage Polish authorities from housing a US missile defense shield in the country. In November 2021, Eurasian Daily Monitor reported an artificial migration crisis growing in the Polis-Belarusian border area. Piotr Muller, a Polish government spokesman at the time, called the situation “intensifying” with 3,000–4,000 migrants gathered in the direct vicinity of Poland’s eastern frontier. Since then, the weaponization of migration has been a constant element of hybrid pressure, according to Bornio.
Although Prigozhin’s soldiers are said to be without heavy weaponry this could easily be remedied by equipment from Belarus and Russian military equipment already located in the country. Wagner forces that are deployed in southern Belarus just north of Ukrainian border require Kyiv to maintain forces in the northern part of the country to repel potential cross-border expeditions. This border area contains the extensive marshlands of the Pripyat dike. Heavy weapons would not be useful due to the topography of this area. Wagner’s men, armed with light artillery are outfitted for what is required on an offensive battlefield.
In part, the Wagner Group is a useful tool for Putin in the event of a hybrid campaign against NATO’s eastern flank. It may also be equally useful as a Kremlin psychological operation aimed at European societies and decision makers “by creating a feeling of insecurity, which in turn intends to minimize support for anti-Russian policies, lower confidence in those in power and introduce new levels of polarization, says Bornio. On August 14, Polskie Radio reported that the Polish Internal Security Agency detained two Russian reportedly engaged in Wagner-style psychological operations on behalf of Russia’s special services. The public split between Putin and Prigozhin provides the Russian leader with the plausible deniability that enables Moscow to deny responsibility for Wagner Group activities. In what Bornio says has emerged as the counter-narrative, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, delivered an umbrella statement saying that “any attacks by the Wagner Group will be seen as an attack by the Russian government.” It was followed recently with a similar statement by Lithuanian President Gitana Nausėda.
Last month Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka suggested, in a scripted manner, that members of the Wagner Group were asking for permission to “go on an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszow” in Poland, according to the Kremlin. By the end of July over 100 Wagner mercenaries had been deployed near the Suwalki Corridor, an area immediately southwest of the Lithuanian – polish border, between Belarus and Russia’s Kalinigrad Oblast. The corridor is a chokepoint of strategic military importance since the formation of NATO.
Military analysts are particularly concerned that Putin will use the Wagner Group to conduct hybrid incursions just below the threshold requiring a response from NATO and Western powers using sabotage, live fire in the border area, and forced border crossings by masses of immigrants, some of whom may be trained for combat. It will require a good communications strategy and a firm response from Kyiv if Wagner forces move into Ukraine or Poland. The area is heating up as last week Belarus conducted new drills near the Suwalki Corridor, increasing pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. On August 12 Poland sent several thousand troops to its border area with Belarus. It is a complex and nuanced battlefield. As the spectrum of cross-border activity increases, it may require a different level of response from NATO countries to deter Moscow
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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