A New Russian Empire? – USA Gov Policy

The former Soviet republics in Central Asia matter to the Russian Heartland today and they also should be of concern to the United States. Afghanistan, a part of that Heartland, is only 300 miles from the Indian Ocean Rimland, according to Robert D. Kaplan, writing in The Spectator. He argues that the failed US withdrawal from Afghanistan significantly changes the geopolitical environment with the US now concentrating on the outlying areas in Asia rather than those closer to Russia. The two regions, he points out, will converge in the coming years into a Greater Central Asia connected by new transportation corridors, extensive pipelines, and other modernized infrastructure.

Russian military and security services and Russian-language speakers remain dominant in Central Asia over those from China, but the eastern communist giant is making major economic inroads in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Although Russia is partnering with China in many areas, the balance slowly is changing in favor of Beijing, despite Moscow’s efforts to maintain a relationship with the Taliban. In the near future it may be left to the United States to maintain a fragile diplomatic balance between the two communist giants by denying them both their desired hegemonic status in the region.

Over the last decade Russia has worked to repair its relationship with Pakistan, weakened by Islamabad’s courting of Washington after the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Their military leaders now hold high level visits and they have restarted arms sales. The Islamabad-Moscow security partnership has strengthened and expanded while at the same time US relations with Pakistan have worsened. Russia has benefited from the political vacuum in recent years, enabling it to renew military exchange programs, training, and joint naval exercises. While Russia’s efforts are reaping results in Pakistan, it still faces risks in other parts of the region.

There are co-ethnic communities on both sides of Afghanistan’s border. Russia and the other Central Asian nations fear Afghan refugees would engender unrest inside their borders and have, thus far, refused to resettle them in the local communities. Russian political analysts also have raised concerns in Moscow that the Taliban victory may inspire Islamic extremist groups inside Russia itself. Paul Goble, of the Jamestown Foundation, points out that Russian “officials worry that Taliban or Taliban-influenced activists are likely to work to promote drug trafficking throughout Russia to fill the depleted government coffers in Kabul.” Moscow, like China, has been slow to recognize the new Taliban-led government. What at first glance may appear to be an indirect victory for Russia comes with many risks and potentially destabilizing factors.

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C. Raja Mohan, writing in Foreign Policy this week, says that the Taliban victory has pushed India closer to the United States and may deepen its rift with Russia. Closer to Moscow, Tiblisi, Georgia has opened its airport to become a major transit point for Afghan refugees, according to Goble. Yet the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Georgia responded to the accusations saying that “Russian news agencies are spreading disinformation that Tbilisi and Georgia allegedly gave shelter to Afghan refugees and that we allegedly turned Tbilisi into a refuge for those fleeing Afghanistan.” He highlighted that reference, in reality, “is to only tens of employees of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, International Republican Institute, Asian Development Bank and other international organizations functioning in Afghanistan, whose evacuation to Georgia is carried out in close coordination with international partners. Those persons will remain in Georgia for a few hours and then they will travel to the countries of their destination.” Armenian officials inside Azerbaijan in “Artsakh Republic” (Karabakh) says refugees were sent there to give Moscow trouble. Rumors are rampant and stoking the flames of fear among Russians in the borderlands. Goble notes that David Babayan, the “foreign minister” of that entity, which is currently protected by Russian peacekeepers, has alleged that “Azerbaijan has transferred militants from Afghanistan to the portions of Karabakh it controls” to destabilize the area and threaten violence and that this process has been assisted by Turkey.

The Russian propaganda machine may be celebrating the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a complete breakdown of US foreign policy and a win for Moscow, but Putin knows conflict in the region is far from over.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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