In recent years Chinese military power has increased greatly in concert with its aggressive behavior in the blue waters of the South China Sea and elsewhere, as it appears Beijing has seized this as a “period of strategic opportunity.” This is not, however, the first time in modern history that China has attempted to extend its military maritime reach. Leaders of the Republic of China in 1912 issued a series of maps with vaguely demarcated areas not dissimilar to the “9-dash line” used by China’s leaders today.
Although there is no historical evidence to support China’s claim then or now President Xi has made the issue one of national pride and a priority for his regime. Geography textbooks teach China’s youth that the line shows the true extent of its territory, helping to incorporate it into the popular culture of the country. It quickly became fact that China had justifiable rights of ownership and jurisdiction in the sea that held its name. After the long century of humiliation was this simply a step toward China retrieving its lost prestige? Or, was something else occurring far more nefarious and dangerous to the United States?
Covering vast stretches of shallow ocean, rich in minerals and other resources, leaders in Beijing risked regional instability to gain territory. While hardening the country’s defense of its maritime claims the political elite also saw the 9-dash line as a way to extend its political influence. With man-made, militarized islands acting as outposts along the line for President Xi Jinping, China gained the potential to become a 21st century Asian hegemon controlling 70% of the world’s oceanic commerce. This is a position China’s leaders claim is its rightful place as a world power.
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American Vice Admiral Andrew “Woody” Lewis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies last week said that the new reality is the US-China-Russia rivalry is heating up and American ships are no longer safe once they leave the harbor or even while dockside. His comments reinforce Defense Department warnings that China, and Russia, are developing military plans to prevent US forces from using key ports around the globe. Revived great power competition, with China firmly ensconced as a key global player, has the potential to alter how the world is impacted by Chinese expansionism as President Xi deploys his nation’s forces beyond its traditional sphere of influence. It is no longer the case today that China simply is regaining what it lost a century ago. We have entered a new period of multi-polar international order where President Xi intends to fulfill the “China Dream.” Next year marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. It looks like they will have much to celebrate.
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key analyses China.
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