Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

Following Vice President Mike Pence’s declaration on November 20 that the American people will stand with the people of Iran, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has vowed to expose the Iranian regime’s brutality and the violent campaign against Iranian protesters.

Pompeo said: “I have asked the Iranian protestors to send us their videos, photos, and information documenting the regime’s crackdown on protestors. The U.S. will expose and sanction the abuses.” Washington continues to monitor the ongoing protests in Iran and the resulting deaths. Pompeo called on the regime to cease its violence against its own people and to restore Iranian access to a free and open Internet. The choice, according to the Secretary, is with the regime.

In a recently issued statement, the US Government announced that in response to Iran’s uranium enrichment program at the Fordow facility, the United States will terminate the sanctions waiver related to the facility on December 15, 2019. US intelligence sources admit there is not good reason for Iran to resume enrichment at this site and that it simply is a new case of “nuclear brinksmanship.” Washington is seeking comprehensive negotiations that address the full range of Iran’s threats in their entirety. Pompeo pointed out that Washington’s goal remains for Iran to behave as a “normal nation.”

ARMS CONTROL

Earlier in the year, President Trump said that the United States will not negotiate on the issue of missile defense. Pompeo says that the Administration examined this issue and decided the facts on the ground had changed as only one party to the treaty was abiding by it. He added that it made no sense to stay in it.

According to Pompeo, the US worked with its European allies to ensure there was unanimity, that each nation understood the risks, costs and only then moved forward together in declaring that Russia was in violation of the treaty. Pompeo stated that “President Trump will never allow America to enter into any arms control agreement that doesn’t make sense for the United States of America or to renew any existing arms control agreement that expires if it no longer makes sense for America.”

European partners to make sure that there was unanimity, that we understood the risks, that we understood the costs, and then moved forward together, declaring that Russia was in violation and that the appropriate thing to do was for the United States to leave that treaty. That goes for a broader set of arms control issues. President Trump will never allow America to enter into any arms control agreement that doesn’t make sense for the United States of America or to renew any existing arms control agreement that expires if it no longer makes sense for America. He also pointed out that the world has changed dramatically since the signing of the treaty.

ISRAEL

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In a recent press conference, Secretary Pompeo pointed out despite the settlement announcement in Israel “there hasn’t been much support for Israel in the years leading up to this. It’s hard to imagine more isolation….” Some analysts overseas say that the Administration’s policy reversal is close to breaking the law, and at a minimum is inconsistent with international law.

UKRAINE

“I am proud of what this administration has done with respect to Ukraine,” stated Pompeo. “We reversed the massive failures of the Obama administration’s policy towards Ukraine, which truly did risk the lives of Ukrainian people and allowed Vladimir Putin to take Crimea and to fight in the Donbas against a group of Ukrainians who wanted nothing more than to defend their nation but were given just blankets and nonlethal equipment.”

HONG KONG

Secretary Pompeo recently stated that the Administration wants to see China abide by the 1997 joint declaration concerning the governance of Hong Kong by Beijing. He added that making public demands of China and threatening consequences would not help the situation there. The government in Beijing, he noted, is aware of the situation and the consequences of any action it takes.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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