Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

IRAN

Morgan Ortagus, State Department Spokesperson, announced that Secretary Pompeo is continuing restrictions on the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. “This decision will help preserve oversight of Iran’s civil nuclear program, reduce proliferation risks, constrain Iran’s ability to shorten its “breakout time” to a nuclear weapon, and prevent the regime from reconstituting sites for proliferation-sensitive purposes,” according to Ortagus.

The Secretary made two determinations with sanctions implications pursuant to Section 1245 of the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act of 2012 (IFCA): one identifying the construction sector of Iran as being controlled directly or indirectly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); and one identifying four strategic materials as being used in connection with Iran’s nuclear, military, or ballistic missile programs. With these determinations, the United States will have additional authorities to prevent Iran from acquiring strategic materials for the IRGC, its construction sector, and its proliferation programs.

CHILE

The Russians are active in the Chilean elections, according to a State Department official. The Russian influence on developments in Chile in recent days is especially prevalent in the social media environment.

The State Department regards Russian activities taking advantage of the Chilean political environment and “skewing it through the use and abuse of social media trolling and seeking – rather than allowing the citizens of Chile to have their own debate about how their country and the courses their country should take, they’ve sought to exacerbate divisions, foment conflict, and all around act as a spoiler to responsible democratic debate,” according to the official.

UKRAINE

In a recent press conference Secretary of State Michael Pompeo was questioned about US foreign policy strategy in the Ukraine. He responded that the United States has supported the Ukrainian government and delivered weapons to it so that it could defend itself from outside aggression. He pointed out that no other nation has been as generous as the United States. He added that former President Obama and Vice President Biden will have to answer if Hunter Biden is the reason why the previous Administration refused to supply the Ukraine with defensive weapons.

CHINA

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In a recent speech in New York on Thursday Secretary Pompeo said that we need to try to “help China make good choices,” and create the incentives to encourage China to do so. He added that “We want them to be successful and grow and prosper.” The Secretary pointed out that not all of Washington’s dealings with China have been win-win. “It’s been the case,” he said, “that we’ve had U.S. companies go in there and they have been given commercial access. I was pleased they made decisions on banking and insurance regulations that they’re – that are changed. These are really good signs. I’m encouraged by that. I hope they’ll continue to do that. I hope we’ll continue to open markets for them as well.”

HUMAN TRAFFICKING

Secretary Pompeo chaired a recent meeting of the President’s Interagency Task Force to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons and announced this week several key State Department initiatives. The State Department, he noted, was expanding coverage of its In-person Registration Program beyond the Washington, DC region to workers employed by consular personnel in the New York metropolitan area and in Houston, Texas. He said the US Mission to the United Nations also launched an In-person Registration Program for domestic workers employed by members of the UN Permanent Mission community.

The program is expected to be expanded in 2020 to include Los Angeles and San Francisco, and will cover domestic workers employed by UN personnel. It will enhance protection and oversight of foreign domestic workers employed by foreign mission and international organization personnel present in the US, according to the Secretary.

Pompeo also announced the Department’s third investment of $25 million in the Program to End Modern Slavery, bringing the total U.S. investment to $75 million and making it the United States’ largest anti-trafficking program. Pompeo also reaffirmed the Trump Administration is committed to ending human trafficking for its estimated 25 million global victims.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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