Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

MIDDLE EAST

In a recent press conference Secretary of State Michael Pompeo discussed America’s leadership role in the role and how it has evolved under the Trump Administration. He said Americans live in a “complicated world, dangerous world.” He pointed out that America is no longer leading from behind, but also recognized the United States can’t be everywhere and do all things. He added that “We’re doing it right; we’re doing it well.

The work that Vice President Pence did in Ankara trying to stop the Turkish incursion was “truly lifesaving,” he pointed out. Pompeo said the complexity of the Middle East is even greater. Although the caliphate is no longer, he said “We still have threats from terrorism all around the world, not just in the Middle East, in Asia too.”

The mission at the State Department is to “deliver against President Trump’s priorities, to make sure that we’re doing this right in the true American tradition of diplomacy, and to keep the American people safe and secure,” according to Pompeo. He added that if they do their jobs well, “we’ll have to put fewer young men and women in harm’s way in the military, and we reduce the risk to our people back home, and we can continue to do the things we love to do in places like here in Kansas and take care of our families, grow our economy, all the things that Americans value.”

UKRAINE

“This is a results-based administration. This is about realism. It’s about being practical. It’s about delivering on real outcomes to keep the American people safe. Our interest in Ukraine has consistently been aimed at the singular focus of what’s in America’s best interest – that is, how do we get the outcome that keeps the American people safe,” according to Pompeo. Washington views a strong Ukraine, that is less corrupt and less under the influence of Russia’s Putin will be more secure for the Ukrainian people. And that it will help Europe in that it pushes back against the threats that are from Russia.

TURKEY

Asked if he was comfortable with the President lifting sanctions against Turkey a day after Erdogan met with Russian President Putin, Pompeo said “Yes. I recommended that to the President.”

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Vice President Pence had led a delegation along with Pompeo to meet with President Erdogan and explain to the Turkish leader that the President was “very unhappy that he had conducted an incursion into Syria.” Pompeo added that “We wanted to stop that incursion to save lives. We did that. We set up a five-day pause so that we could extract SDF fighters safely, they wouldn’t be killed as they moved back. We were largely successful in doing that.”

The Turks did halt their Operation Peace Spring which has allowed for the initiation of a permanent ceasefire phase which Washington plans to monitor. US sanctions were put in place to convince the Turkish leadership that it was in their best interest to halt that operation, to stop the death, to stop the killing that would have taken place, according to Pompeo.

VENEZUELA

Venezuela recently was given a seat on the UH Human Rights Commission to the disbelief of many member countries. Secretary Pompeo commented that “this is untethered to anything, left, right, center, and America would understand as decent and right and protecting human dignity. If you observe what’s going on in Venezuela today, you can see that it’s the antithesis of the protection of individual liberty and freedom and the rights that we all know.” The Maduro regime has long abused the citizens of Venezuela and illegally attempted to retain power. The resulting economic decay in the country and abuse has led millions of Venezuela’s citizens to seek refuge in other nations.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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