Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

There is real risk, according to Secretary of State Pompeo, to American security from China and Huawei. He said that for “too long – this is not partisan – presidents from both parties had ignored the challenges that were presented to American workers, to American technology, and to American national security that China presents.”

Pompeo pointed out that the decision that was made to list Huawei had an enormous national security component to it. “The company is deeply tied not only to China, but to the Chinese Communist Party, and that connectivity, the existence of those connections, puts American information that crosses those networks at risk.”

Pompeo has been traveling the world over the last few months talking to foreign partners about Huawei and why it is putting their citizens’ information, their citizens’ national security at risk by having that technology inside of their systems. The Secretary added that he expects to see more companies refusing to use Huawei equipment. The US wants to see a global 5G system with western values built into it, including rule of law, property rights protection, transparency, and openness not restrictive authoritarian regulations.

IRAN

The “threat from Iran, remains”, according to Pompeo. He noted Washington has had some luck in disrupting some of the tactical issues but he added that “we’re still on high alert, we’re still making sure we have the right resources in play.” The cost of a barrel of oil is now below the price it was when the US designated the IRGC a terrorist organization. Pompeo argued that he believes the US can keep the world well-supplied with oil and that the current lower price is an indication that this is happening. The Trump Administration remains adamant that it is not seeking war with Iran, but deterrence. At the same time, the US is not willing to stand by idly while US assets, and those of its partners, are attacked.

In response to a question concerning former Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent activity concerning the JCPOA (Iran deal) Pompeo said that he was not confident that others are not out there trying to conduct foreign policy deals that are against President Trump’s goals. He stated: “I’ve seen – I saw Secretary Kerry travel to Munich. There’s a security conference there every year. He was with Ernest Moniz, Wendy Sherman, and the whole gang that put in place the JCPOA, which fundamentally failed America, and it’s what we’re working to correct today.” Some in the Administration have gone as far as to label Kerry’s actions illegal under a US law called the Logan Act.

TROOPS TO MIDDLE EAST

On Thursday, May 23, President Trump announced he has approved additional forces for the Middle East after discussing the issue with acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford. The President said: “We want to have protection.”

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The Pentagon is extending the tours of approximately 600 US troops and adding just under 1,000 additional soldiers to the region. They will become a component of a Patriot antimissile battalion.

VENEZUELA

Morgan Ortagus, State Department Spokesperson, reaffirmed Washington’s position on the leadership situation in Venezuela on Thursday saying that the “Secretary has been clear that we do not support any kind of, quote/unquote, “democracy” under Maduro. We know that’s false. We know Maduro is not stronger today than he was one year ago, and I think our position remains the same.”

SYRIA

It appears the regime in Syria has once again illegally used a chemical weapon against its own people in an escalation of the situation in Idlib

The State Department reports that it is investigating the reports of chemical weapons use. “This attack, of course, is being investigated by organizations on the ground… The location of the attack is at the frontlines, and so access – it does make access to that site limited,” according to the State Department Spokesperson. She added that there are a number of sources, including from those present during the attack that did report that a number of opposition fighters were taken to local hospitals and presented symptoms that were consistent with chemical exposure.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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