The Chinese government is engaging in all the actions relevant to the preparation of a significant military action. That’s not merely the opinion of western analysts; it is, indeed, Beijing’s stated policy.
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission notes that “Over a quarter century ago, Deng Xiaoping famously instructed his countrymen to ‘hide your capabilities and bide your time’ and to ‘absolutely not take lead’ in world affairs. The last hint of this formulation for a cautious and conservative Chinese role in the world faded into history this year. The China that emerged from last October’s 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could not be more opposite in tone or bearing. Having amassed all titles of authority and successfully removed term limits on himself, Xi Jinping announced a ‘new era’ that sees his China ‘moving closer to the world’s center stage’ and offering a ‘Chinese approach’ to solving problems. Although the CCP emphasizes China’s peaceful rise and the ‘shared prosperity’ it claims to bring the world, this rhetoric conceals a coordinated, long-term effort to transform China into a dominant global power …many aspects of China’s attempts to seize leadership have undoubtedly put at risk the national security and economic interests of the United States, its allies, and its partners.”
The U.S.-China Commission’s latest report provides specifics:
- U.S.-China security relations remain tense due to serious disagreements over issues such as China’s continued coercive actions in regional territorial disputes, espionage and cyber activities, and influence operations. The tenor of the relationship was reflected in President Xi’s public warning to visiting U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis that China would not tolerate the loss of a “single inch” of its territorial claims.
- The People’s Liberation Army continues to extend its presence outside of China’s immediate periphery by increasing air and maritime operations farther from its shores, expanding presence operations in disputed areas in the East and South China seas (maintaining troops and building a pier at China’s sole overseas military base in Djibouti, deploying more advanced combat units to UN peacekeeping operations, and conducting more complex bilateral and multilateral overseas exercises.)
- Tensions and the potential for accidents, miscalculation, and escalation between China and Japan intensified in the East China Sea as China sailed a number of naval vessels close to the Senkaku Islands and increased its military presence in the area. Based on the terms of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty, China’s increasing military activity near the Senkakus constitutes a challenge to U.S. security guarantees to Japan.
- China took new steps to consolidate its military posture and improve its ability to project power into the South China Sea, as President Xi proclaimed at the 19th Party Congress the success of China’s islandbuilding efforts. Chinese forces are now capable of overpowering any other South China Sea claimant, challenging U.S. presence operations in the region, and presenting a significant obstacle to the U.S. military during a conflict. China deployed advanced antiship and surface-to-air missiles to its Spratly Island outposts for the first time, demonstrating its ability to create a military buffer around the southern reaches of the South China Sea.
- Following their land border dispute in 2017, strategic jockeying in 2018 between China and India expanded to include New Delhi’s maritime interests in the Indian Ocean.
- China continued to deepen its partnerships with Russia, Iran, and Pakistan and leveraged the relationships to challenge U.S. security and economic interests. During a high-level visit to Russia, China’s defense minister stated that China’s visit was intended to demonstrate the depth of China-Russia strategic cooperation to the United States and to the world. China’s purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia resulted in the United States applying sanctions against China’s Equipment Development Department, a key military body.
- China’s arms exports continued to grow in volume and sophistication in 2018, although they remain limited to low- and middle-income countries and trail in value compared to U.S. and Russian sales.
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The Report Continues Tomorrow
Photo: China’s People’s Liberation Army drill (PLA )