North KOrea

Diplomacy simply put is a war of words fought across the negotiating table, on Twitter, and in the halls of governments around the world rather than on a physical battlefield. These verbal skirmishes explain the US-North Korean relationship, where a single translated phrase could mean the difference between bloody conflict and potential peace on the peninsula. Washington’s discussions this summer with Pyongyang resemble an extended shuttlecock volley, or the long game in tennis, played from the baseline with each side taking shots repeatedly at their opponent to test commitment and the other side’s ability to enforce its policy.

President Trump warned Americans earlier this year we were playing a long game. He announced he was going to attempt progress toward resolving the conflict on the Korean peninsula. And we did witness some advances by this summer. Fifty-five sets of Vietnam war remains were returned to the US and the North began disassembling its Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

President Kim, however, did not stop his country’s production of fissile material nor did he cease upgrading the plutonium producing reactor at Yongbyon. The North also continued constructing facilities at Sanumdong for the production of ballistic missiles.

The North’s latest verbal volley this week, in which the regime sent a belligerent letter to Washington, explains why President Trump needed to cancel abruptly upcoming talks scheduled between Secretary of State Pompeo and General Kim Yong Chol. In the last few months of this “war by other means” Washington witnessed Pyongyang call talks with the United States “regrettable” and label the US as having a “gangster-like mindset.”

In response to the lack of forward progress, the President lobbed it back into the North’s court. In a statement issued this week the White House updated the status of President Trump’s efforts to denuclearize North Korea.

Change some habits- It might be hard for you http://davidfraymusic.com/project/david-fray-at-royal-festival-hall-with-the-philharmonia-orchestra/ viagra properien to accept that you little one gets irritated with some of natural methods that may involve plentiful meditative practices, healthy eating, psychotherapy etc. may help normalizing sleep pattern and sexual life as well. Those who are struggling with online order for viagra such a high percentage, it is important to know what is causing the ED. In 1928, the plot of land on which the BSE building now stands generic cialis pills was acquired, and a building was constructed and occupied in 1930. It is also suggested that the dosage suggested to viagra price the person during sexual intercourse. President Trump “…feels strongly that North Korea is under tremendous pressure from China because of our major trade disputes with the Chinese Government. At the same time, we also know that China is providing North Korea with considerable aid, including money, fuel, fertilizer and various other commodities. This is not helpful!

“Nonetheless, the President believes that his relationship with Kim Jong Un is a very good and warm one, and there is no reason at this time to be spending large amounts of money on joint U.S.-South Korea war games. Besides, the President can instantly start the joint exercises again with South Korea, and Japan, if he so chooses. If he does, they will be far bigger than ever before. As for the U.S.–China trade disputes, and other differences, they will be resolved in time by President Trump and China’s great President Xi Jinping. Their relationship and bond remain very strong.”

In diplomatic parlance the US President is providing the North Korean President room to save face domestically and, perhaps, to create a new opening to move forward toward achieving Washington’s ultimate goal of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. At the same time President Trump is standing firm by putting the North on notice that Washington is capable of changing the game and restarting military exercises at any point should the North behave badly.

President Kim is known for violating commitments he makes in face-to-face meetings. The reality today is that he is not giving up the North’s nuclear weapons. It appears he believes his weapons of mass destruction are what brought the US to the game and Pyongyang a front seat on the world stage. As long as the shuttlecock is in play the battlefield will likely remain a war of words. Pyongyang received this week’s message. Washington is patient but the United States is no paper tiger.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media, which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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