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U.S. armed forces are “degrading in strength”

Last week, General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, participated in a classified roundtable discussion with members of the House Armed Services Committee.  Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said:

“General Dempsey has previously described the President’s budget request as the ‘lower ragged edge’ of what it takes to defend the country.  This morning we received a briefing on the growing threats we confront and the accumulating challenges facing our own military forces.  It is clear that continued cuts to our military would exact a very real cost on our ability to address those threats and significantly increase the dangers facing the nation.

“Uncertainty in budgets combined with a high operational pace and eroding military technological advantages are the new constants facing our military leaders.  As Congress debates critical national security issues, we must keep this enormous challenge, and unprecedented risk, in mind.  Addressing these threats must be our highest priority.”

The concern has been noted before.

Army Chief of Staff Ray Odierno told the Army Times  that “The Army stands to lose 18,200 soldiers in the draw down plan for 2015, through attrition and reduced accessions, but also with retention screening boards that may lead to soldiers being forced out.”  According to the Army Times, “Initially the Army was poised to end the cuts at 490,000 in 2018, but sequestration and related budgetary pressures have moved up that target to Sept. 30, 2015, while taking an additional cut of 40,000 in 2016 and 2017. A worst-case scenario envisions follow-on cuts of 10,000 to 20,000 by the end of the decade.”

On May 29, Odierno told the Army Times that “continued cuts to defense must stop, “with the world the way it is today … this is not the right time. We’ve taken enough out of defense. Let’s stop and move forward.”

Continued cuts will damage the Army’s modernization efforts and readiness into the next decade, the general said.

“If we don’t get the dollars and continue down the road of sequestration, it’s going to affect readiness. It’s going to put us in a readiness hole for five years. It’s going to put us in a modernization hole for 10 years. And our ability to continue to meet the current mission is going to be challenged.”

Recently, the Heritage Foundation  reviewed the status of U.S. armed forces:

“The common theme across the services and the United States’ nuclear enterprise is one of force degradation resulting from many years of under­investment, poor execution of modernization pro­grams, and the negative effects of budget sequestra­tion (i.e., cuts in funding) on readiness and capacity. While the military has been heavily engaged in operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere since September 11, 2001, experience is both ephemeral and context-sensitive. As such, valuable combat experience is lost over time as the service­members who individually gained experience leave the force, and it maintains direct relevance only for future operations of a similar type (e.g., counterin­surgency operations in Iraq and major convention­al operations against a state like Iran or China are fundamentally different).

“Thus, though the current Joint Force is experi­enced in some types of operations, it is still aged and shrinking in its capacity for operations.

“We characterized the services and nuclear enter­prise on a five-category scale ranging from “very weak” to “very strong,” benchmarked against cri­teria elaborated in the full report. These charac­terizations are not a reflection of the competence of individual servicemembers or the professional­ism of the services or Joint Force as a whole; nor do they speak to the U.S. military’s strength relative to other militaries around the world. Rather, they are assessments of the institutional, programmatic, and matériel health or viability of America’s hard mili­tary power.

“Our analysis concluded with these assessments:

  • Army as “Marginal.” The Army was at the low end of the middle grade (“marginal”) in capac­ity and capability and scored quite low in readi­ness (as reported by the Army), the three scores combining to place it in the low end of the mid­dle category.
  • Navy as “Marginal.” The Navy scored quite strong in readiness but at a cost to future capa­bility. Deferred maintenance has kept ships at sea, but at some point in the near future, this will affect the Navy’s ability to deploy. Combined with a weak score in capability (due largely to old plat­forms and troubled modernization programs) and a “marginal” score in capacity, the Navy is currently just able to meet requirements.
  • Air Force as “Strong.” The Air Force flies a lot and has significantly more aircraft than required for a two-MRC force, but it is an old Air Force, and its modernization programs are problematic. Still, its high scores in capacity and readiness placed it in the best position of all of the services.
  • Marine Corps as “Marginal.” The Corps’ strongest suit was in readiness, but even here there are problems as stated by the Corps itself. While the fighting competence of the service is superb, it is hampered by old equipment, troubled replacement programs for its key ground vehicles, and a shrinking force. The progress it has made in replacing its rotary-wing aircraft is a notable bright spot in its modernization portfolio.
  • Nuclear Capabilities as “Marginal.” Modern­ization, testing, and investment in the intellec­tual/talent underpinnings of this sector are the chief elements plaguing the United States’ nucle­ar enterprise. Its delivery platforms are good, but the force depends on a very limited set of weap­ons (in number of designs) and models that are quite old, in stark contrast to the aggressive pro­grams of competitor states.

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“In aggregate, the United States’ military posture is rated as “Marginal.”

“The consistent decline in funding and the consequent shrinking of the force are putting it under significant pressure. Essential maintenance is being deferred; fewer units (mostly the Navy’s platforms and the Special Operations Forces community) are being cycled through operation-al deployments more often and for longer periods; and old equipment is being extended while programmed replacements are problematic. The cumulative effect of such factors has resulted in a U.S. military that is marginally able to meet the demands of defending America’s vital national interests.”