In this article, we discuss the alleged secret discussions between the White House and Iran on an agreement to end economic sanctions in return for a temporary cessation of activities related to nuclear weapons development.
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Clandestine Negotiations Reported
On the October 20 WVOX New York Analysis-affiliated broadcast, “And Nothing But The truth” Reza Kahlili (a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and a member of the advisory board of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran) stated that in return for a temporary cessation of centrifuge activity enriching uranium for nuclear bomb development, the White House would end sanctions. According to Kahlili, on October 3, 2012, discussions were held with Iran’s leadership by a three-person delegation, led by a female representing President Obama. He bases his information on well-connected contacts linked to top Iranian officials.
The White House has denied Kahlili’s reports, as has Tehran.
The denials are in response to numerous accounts, first appearing in TheNew York Times that Washington and Tehran have reached an “agreement in principle” for one-on-one negotiations to reach a deal to lift the sanctions. The timing of the announcement shortly before the U.S. presidential elections and not long after President Obama refused to meet with the Israeli Prime Minister has raised suspicions about the motives behind the talks.
Iranian Sanctions Have A Long History
International sanctions include both those imposed by the United States as well as those adopted by the United Nations Security Council, the European Union, and others. These measures have finally begun to seriously impact Iran’s economy.
Sanctions against Iran have a long history. The United States first imposed sanctions in 1979, after the occupation of the American embassy. In 1995, President Clinton barred U.S. companies from investing in Iranian energy, and forbade Americans from trading and investing with that nation. That was followed by a Congressional mandate in 1996 sanctioning international firms investing over $20 million annually in Iranian energy. From 2006 through the present, additional United Nations, European, and American sanctions were enacted as Iran, which essentially ignored international pressure, continued with its nuclear weapons program.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) notes that “Because so many major economic powers have imposed sanctions on Iran, the sanctions are, by all accounts, having a growing effect on Iran’s economy.” Reports on growing dissatisfaction by Iranians with the Tehran regime also provide an incentive for that nation’s leadership to seek an end to them.
While Iran’s economy has suffered, there remains substantial disagreement about whether the sanctions have actually had any effect on Iranian nuclear weapons development. Adam Kredo, a Middle Eastern affairs researcher, recently wrote in the Washington Free Beacon that “Economic sanctions on Iran have failed in their ‘principal objective’ of preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.”
Internationally, Israel has increasingly called for more direct pressure on the Tehran regime, which has repeatedly emphasized its desire to wipe the Jewish state “off the face of the map.”
The Obama Administration & Sanctions
The Obama Administration, reeling politically from revelations about its mishandling of security matters leading to the attacks on America’s Libyan embassy and the killing of its ambassador, and the subsequent cover-up of the reasons behind the attack, is seeking a Middle East “victory” to shore up its sinking voter support.
There has been much speculation that top White House advisor Valerie Jarrett, who was born in Iran, speaks fluent Farsi, and reportedly has excellent contacts with the current Iranian regime, has strongly influenced President Obama’s views, and may have been the woman leading the alleged U.S. delegation in the talks.
Kahlili has emphasized that the discussions involved only Washington and Tehran; no other nations or international organizations were involved.
The White House’s National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor, while denying the existence of the reported talks, states that the Obama Administration “remains open to such one-on-one negotiations,” according to an article published in The Hill. In the past, President Obama had promised to meet with Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “without preconditions.”
The Obama Administration has been ambivalent about sanctions. While tough measures have been reluctantly approved by the White House, vital exemptions have been granted. Last June, both China and Singapore, Iran’s key trading partners, were given six months passes. Jonathon Tobin, writing inCommentary notes that “The dirty secret about the Western sanctions on Iran is that their leader advocate has never bothered to enforce them. The weak sanctions were selectively enforced by the United States, with the Treasury Department granting exemptions to thousands of firms that allowed them to go on doing business there.” Tobin maintains that “the sanctions are riddled with loopholes…the Treasury Department has issued thousands of exemptions.”
Turkey is also reportedly avoiding the sanctions by exchanging gold for crude oil, according to the Washington Free Beacon. India has also been granted exemptions. According to a 2011 Congressional Research Servicereport by Middle Eastern affairs expert Kenneth Katzman, “The Obama Administration’s policy approach towards Iran has contrasted with the Bush Administration’s by attempting to couple the imposition of sanctions to a consistent, direct U.S. effort to negotiate with Iran on the nuclear issue…”
When that approach failed, the Administration seemed to consent to additional sanctions. In practice, however, it never fully backed the concept of taking a hard line on sanctions, and only reluctantly went along with Congressional attempts to deal strictly with Tehran.
A prime example of this could be seen in the White House’s initial opposition to the Iranian sanctions provisions of the FY2012 national defense authorization bill (H.R. 1540.) As noted in the CRS report, the measure:
* “Requires the President to prevent a foreign bank from opening an account in the United States-or impose strict limitations on existing U.S. accounts-if that bank processes payments through Iran’s Central Bank.
* The provision applies to non-oil related transactions with the Central Bank of
Iran 60 days after enactment (by February 29, 2012).
* The provision applies to a foreign central bank only if the transaction with Iran’s Central Bank is for oil purchases.
* Provides for a renewable waiver of 120 days duration if the President determines that doing so is in the national security interest.
* The provision applied to transactions with the Central Bank for oil purchases
only after 180 days (as of June 28, 2012).
* Sanctions on transactions for oil apply only if the President certifies to
Congress-90 days after enactment (by March 30, 2012), based on a report by
the Energy Information Administration to be completed 60 days after enactment (by February 29, 2012)-that the oil market is adequately supplied. The EIA report and Administration certification are required every 90 days thereafter.
* Foreign banks can be granted an exemption from sanctions (for any transactions with the Central Bank, not just for oil) if the President certifies that the parent country of the bank has significantly reduced its purchases of oil from Iran. That determination is to be reviewed every 180 days. For countries whose banks receive an exemption, the 180 day time frame begins from the time that parent country last received an exemption.”
The CRS report notes that The Administration opposed the provision. However, “In the signing statement on the overall bill, President Obama indicated he would implement the provision so as not to damage U.S. relations with partner countries.”
Is It The Right Time For A Deal?
In an exclusive interview with The NY Analysis, Frank Gaffney, a former high ranking U.S. Defense Department official and head of the Center for Security Policy, stated that any deal between the U.S. and Iran at this point ending the sanctions would make it almost impossible to re-convince the international community to reassert them again.
Any agreement to end sanctions for anything less than a permanent end of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, verified by the dismantling of its related facilities would be counterproductive. Although the sanctions, despite the numerous loopholes, are finally beginning to take effect, Tehran appears on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons.
Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA case office, and Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stressed in a Wall Street Journal article that “In all probability the [Iranian] regime is battening down the hatches, husbanding foreign exchange reserves, and preparing for the long ordeal. Given the progress that Tehran has already made with its nuclear plans-still hidden centrifuge manufacturing plants, enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, a likely weaponization facility at Parchin, and an extensive ballistic-missile program-the regime faces a short, relatively inexpensive dash to the nuclear finish line.”
Allowing full international economic dealings with Iran with anything less than a complete and permanent elimination of its nuclear capability is clearly a mistake of the highest magnitude, and a clear and present danger to the safety and security of the international community.