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‘The Future Character of War’: Keynote Address by Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen H. Hicks

December 10, 2024, As Delivered by Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen H. HicksRoyal United Services Institute (RUSI), London, The United Kingdom Every war offers a window into how future wars will be waged. Unquestionably, Russia’s war against Ukraine has much to tell us. For instance, we’re seeing novel applications of both old and new technologies, some of which will be significant factors in how wars of the future will likely be fought. The war has had major consequences not only for Europe, but also other regions — especially the Indo-Pacific, where over the last four years we’ve sharpened our focus, and strengthened our posture and capabilities, in recognition of a long-term strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China. We’ve done so recognizing that competition does not mean conflict — because no one should desire the global devastation that such a war would bring. That’s why we seek to prevent conflict, by deterring PRC aggression against the United States and our allies and partners, and by defending our core national security interests. And key to deterrence is being able to win if called to fight. Of course, there are differences between the regions and their security environments. But there are also similarities, and takeaways that are transferable. We’ve seen that clearly, and we know our competitors have seen it. So, a few quick stipulations up front. First, to be clear, I’m focused today on changes in war’s character, not its nature. I have no need to dispute Clausewitz that war is violent, it is foggy, full of friction, fear, uncertainty, and chance. There has been so much needless bloodshed in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and such a high cost paid, especially by the people of Ukraine. That’s one reason why war is always the last thing we want. Second, human beings have a perfectly-imperfect record of predicting the future, let alone the week. So I’m careful here to avoid sweeping statements that leave no room for nuance. Wisdom requires knowing your limitations, after all, and there is irreducible uncertainty in international security affairs. When future-casting, it’s tempting to proclaim a paradigm shift — even though we’ve all heard those that were premature, or still haven’t panned out. It’s also tempting to critique heralds of revolution, where evolution seems more evident. I won’t give in to either temptation today. There’s a tendency, in our field, to either “fight the last war,” or to suffer from “next-war-itis.” I have seen the pendulum swing between these mentalities since my first job in the Pentagon over 30 years ago. Instead of picking sides, we must inhabit the tension between them. If we can, success is not guaranteed, but it’s more within our grasp. If we can’t, failure is all but certain. That’s because technology, warfare, and the operational concepts where they intersect are never static. They are always in motion. And while it can take years or even decades to fully grasp their consequences, it behooves us to discern key themes as soon as we are able. After all, doing so can save lives, secure national interests, and even deter future conflict. So here are four early insights from the war in Ukraine that I believe have impact for the character of warfare. The first insight is that quality intelligence is an enduring advantage. Prior to February 24, 2022, few countries expected Russia to further invade Ukraine; we knew otherwise. Thankfully we saw the enormous build-up of Russian forces early. We had enough confidence in the indications and warnings, and enough credibility, to disseminate the information and rally our friends and allies. Not everyone believed it at first. But those who did were better prepared. The second insight, which was evident soon after the wider war began, was this: You can have all the elements of an advanced military on paper, but if you can’t bring it all together into an integrated system-of-systems, if you don’t have consistent operational know-how, winning is tough. We saw this clearly in Russia’s early battlefield failures, and it’s still worth noting almost three years later. It’s not as though Russia’s military was inexperienced in modern warfare, with operations under their belts from Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, and even Ukraine starting in 2014. But Ukraine had been working with the United States and other partners like the U.K. since then, training to defend itself. Those efforts paid off early. It’s a reminder of an enduring reality: readiness, training, and operational art — especially on how to aggregate systems in depth across time and space — are often more important for military power than numbers or technology alone. Indeed, a military force can add up to less than the sum of its parts. Historically, that kind of integration and ability to operate jointly is a relative strength of the U.S. military and our closest allies like the U.K. And we’re always getting better, both individually and together, by constantly marrying new operational concepts with game-changing capabilities. We’ve of course seen Russia adapt and improve with time, which brings me to a third insight: Protracted warfare is alive and well, even among advanced militaries. As RUSI scholars noted two years ago, Putin planned to take over Ukraine within 10 days. To date, he’s missed his target timeline 100 times over. He underestimated Ukraine’s will to fight, and ability to innovate — and frankly, so did many in the west. Even with the best intelligence apparatus in the world, you won’t always get everything right. The clear takeaway is, no one should underestimate the ability of an educated, networked, capable society to self-organize and resist aggression. Those societal strengths in Ukraine have made their resistance even more challenging for Russia. The Ukrainians are showing how effectively a smaller adversary can tie down a larger one, with the right capabilities and support. A big reason why is the fourth insight, which is that alliances and partnerships are an asymmetric advantage, especially when the free world comes together: to provide security assistance, such as […]

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America spends more per student than just about any nation in the world, and yet our students continually fall behind. Those dollars are being diverted to progressive propaganda. Author, film maker, Elena Barbera fearlessly describes the crisis. John Lott, an internationally recognized expert on crime and gun laws, discusses why the mass deportation of illegal aliens, especially criminals, is feasible, and necessary. If you missed the program on your local station, watch it here. Photo: Pixabay