Putin’s Chechnya Dilemma

Russia’s long war in Ukraine is dragging into the summer months without any indication that an end is in sight. It is not the only place Putin is actively engaged in a battle. The Russian president is using his ability to sway political events among the regional elites in Chechnya, with the goal of replacing the Ramzan Kadyrov regime with one that is more amenable to Moscow’s influence. Such a transition in power, according to a Jamestown Foundation report this week, “would carry with it a significant potential for instability as the sudden changes in leadership, underlying tensions, and power struggles could destabilize the region’s power dynamics.”

The Chechens have sent a number of fighters to the front lines in Ukraine in support of the Russian war effort. Putin owes these soldiers and their Chechen leaders a debt. His support of a power transition in Chechnya is likely due to the lessened leverage he has with Chechnya since the Ukraine war began in February 2022. Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime is showing signs it is weakening. Putin appears to view this as an opportune time to work toward installing a less independence-oriented leader in the region; one who is more complicit with Russia’s desire to eliminate Chechen pro-independence voices. It is yet another piece of the puzzle Putin needs to complete his long-term goal of reassembling the broader Russian Empire.

Political stability in the Chechen region is cemented through personal relationships and a signal to insiders of the state of affairs and infighting. A day after Daudov resigned from parliament he also resigned as president of the Alkhmat Grozny soccer club after serving for 14 years. His replacement is Ramzan Kadyrov’s son. Analysts in Washington view the change as a sign that the Kremlin is concerned about maintaining control in outlying areas that have a history of seeking greater autonomy. The Jamestown report also cites that when Daudov was appointed prime minister of Chechnya his predecessor was sent to Moscow as an aide to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

In late April Novaya Gazeta-Evropa reported that Putin appointed Apti Alaudinov as the deputy head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. Previously, he served as commander of a volunteer formation in Akhmat and in Chechen law enforcement. What is striking to Western analysts is that Aludinov has never served in the regular armed forces. Reports coming out of Chechnya speculate that Ramzan Kadyrov suffers from pancreatic necrosis and that the Kremlin may be touting Alaudinov as his replacement. It would be a stellar ascent for Alaudinov’s career.

Numerous members of the Kadyrov family have not only flooded government positions in Chechnya but have also become known for their feuds, according to the Jamestown report. It says that “According to sources in the Russian security services, however, the Russian government is not inclined to allow Kadyrov to perpetuate his rule by appointing either one of his sons or a close associate as the next governor of Chechnya. Instead, Moscow allegedly contemplates a significant overhaul of the system of governance in the region, which aims at rendering it more like other regions within the Russian Federation.”

The type of changes occurring in Chechnya are reminiscent of how other imperial powers have decreased the level of political autonomy for newly conquered lands. After the Second Chechen War “the Kadyrov clan was allowed an unprecedented level of political autonomy to use brutal force to suppress the remaining elements of the pro-independence movement,” according to the Jamestown report. Radio Free Europe is reporting that it appears Russian political strategists plan to absorb Chechnya back in Russia by curbing its leadership’s liberties.

Chechens who are unhappy with Kadyrov’s policies are likely to accept Moscow’s titular head. Ramzen Kadyrov met with Putin in Moscow in May and is expected to try to thwart the plan. “The Kremlin’s bet that the majority of Chechens are fed up with the monopoly on power enjoyed by the Kadyrov family in the region is not unreasonable. Nevertheless, it is difficult to determine how different actors will react to any abrupt changes in the region’s governance,” notes the Jamestown report.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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