There is an “increased threat” From Russia Against Critical Infrastructure in Finland,” according to a recent Moscow Times headline. With the world closely monitoring events in the Middle East, a serious Scandinavian incident was virtually overlooked by many major Western media outlets. It appears this fall that Putin believes he is free to act out beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. And, he is soliciting help from China, one of Russia’s few allies. On October 8, the Balticconnector natural gas underwater pipeline between Finland and Estonia received significant damage. Preliminary findings from the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation determined that a pipeline leak was likely caused by the Russian oil carrier SGV Flot seemingly in concert with the Chinese-flagged container ship, the Newnew Polar Bear. The Chinese vessel apparently dragged its anchor along the seabed over the 48-mile-long gas pipeline.
Needed repairs are extensive and not expected to be complete until at least April 2024. The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (SUPO) warned that the suspected sabotage targeting the country’s crucial maritime energy infrastructure, occurred inside its exclusive economic zone. This latest incident raises a question for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Member states. If Russia and its allies continue to destabilize the region, should NATO consider additional protective actions? Both
Finland and Estonia are NATO Member states. The Finnish-Russian bilateral relationship has deteriorated quickly since Finland joined NATO last April after Helsinki ended seven decades of its non-aligned policy.
“Another liquefied natural terminal in Hamina was connected to the grid in 2022 but has very limited capacity… This development along with the original pipeline have become the only viable alternatives to Finland’s import of Russia gas,” according to Mateusz Kubiak of the Jamestown Foundation.
Last week Finnish law enforcement confirmed new evidence linking China to the incident when it found the Newnew Polar Bear’s anchor near the pipeline along with traces of drag marks leading to the nexus of the damage.
The Barents Observer reports this week that the sabotage is complicated by evidence indicating the ultimate owner of the cargo vessel appears to be the Russian-registered company Torgmoll. The publication discovered that new permissions for the Chinese ship to navigate using Russia’s Northern Sea Route were addressed to Torgmoll. Previous permissions were granted to China’s Haian Xin Xin Yang Shipping company. Torgmoll office in both Moscow and Shanghai proport to be developing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The suspected coordination between China and Russia is a concerning sign of increased coordination of disruptive events against Western states.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg discussed the issue with ministers of defense from each of the Member countries and quickly declared if proven to be sabotage, the alliance should develop a “united and determined response.” NATO is viewing the Russian-Chinese act as part of a larger regional security issue and order increased maritime patrols in the Baltic Sea and flyovers. Kubiak suggests that the final findings of the investigation will likely inform NATO’ s decision to either provide a military response or deescalate the situation. Stoltenberg noted that NATO Member states themselves should individually consider additional protection and monitoring of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region and elsewhere, including natural gas and crude oil import terminals.
“NATO already took the first step in this direction when it announced the creation of a Critical Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell at NATO headquarters earlier this year,” according to Kubiak. As the war in Russia drags on and Putin becomes more desperate, analysts expect to see additional sabotage. The Kremlin already is treating Finland as a hostile country. While Finland has a sufficient energy supply to last through the winter months, additional damage to its remaining undersea pipeline would prove disastrous.
The loss of the Balticconector pipeline provides ample evidence that China are Russia are coordinating their anti-Western activities. They are also involved on the periphery of the war in the Middle East. It is possible the conflict there could expand into a proxy war among nuclear armed states, supported by Vladimir Putin and indirectly by Xi Jinping. Both leaders have shown they are willing to set aside differences and work to overturn the rules-based international order.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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