The Arctic is heating up, but not in the way you might expect this spring. China’s Polar Silk Road, also known as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), is the subject of a new joint working group between China and Russia. TASS is reporting that at the recent summit meeting China agreed to help Russia finance development of a new Arctic route. Putin views it as a way to obtain the resources he needs while also deepening the Russo-Chinese relationship into one solidly allied against the West. According to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation, however, “…it is becoming increasingly obvious, even in Russia at least among experts, that China’s plans are fundamentally at odds with those of the Kremlin and that these differences, along with China’s development of railway routes south of Russia through Central Asia and the Caucasus, mean that Beijing is more a competitor than an ally vis-à-vis Moscow in the transit sector.”
The long-term beneficiary, it appears, will be China. What is most concerning about the deal is that Russia in the near future could choose to exacerbate tensions between itself and the West to signal Beijing that Moscow needs its cooperation in supporting Russian troops in the Arctic to counter Western influences there. Fondsk.ru reports this week that this could mean that Xi Jinping must cooperate with Vladimir Putin to enable China to pursue its geoeconomic and geopolitical goals in the Arctic.
With Russian military resources stretched thin due to the war in Ukraine, Putin could decide to risk initiating a military conflict with the West in the Arctic region. Goble argues that the only resource Russia has to keep China in line is to militarize the issue. Over the last five years, Russian specialists on the Arctic and China have repeatedly warned the Kremlin that the two countries’ agenda are not the same and that China is consistently outplaying its Russian counterparts.
China’s position is that the sea route through the Arctic must be open to all nation-states and not under the control of a single country. This is exactly opposite Russia’s position, which insists that the NSR is part of Russia’s strategic patrimony. In recent years Russia has attempted to obtain international recognition of large swaths of the Arctic Ocean as its own based on its reading of undersea maps that it says include its economic exclusion zone. This is not unlike what China has proposed in its South China Sea territorial claims. On April 13, a commentary by Moscow analyst Dmitry Nefedov suggested why Moscow might be inclined to play up the military angle to keep China on its side. Goble says that Nefedov strongly implies that “Moscow must consider that possibility for at least two reasons: On the one hand, China has nominally cut back its use of the NSR because international shipping insurers are no longer prepared to sell Beijing policies for its ships that do utilize the route… On the other, China wants Russia’s backing on Beijing’s insistence of a large exclusion zone in the South China Sea, even as the Chinese refuse to recognize Russian claims to such a zone in the Arctic.”
China could use Russia’s support as tensions over Taiwan heat up and second, Moscow will have every reason to remind China that it needs help in the Arctic to ensure that the Bering Straits and the sea lanes around Wrangel Island remain open to Chinese shipping. Nefedov also argued this week that since Russia is running out of money it risks losing what Moscow says is a key factor in Russian national security. He points out that some fear China will look at Moscow as a steppingstone toward its goal to become the dominant global hegemon. Last month the Jamestown Foundation reported in its Eurasian Daily Monitor that Putin has no way to stop China from building a new railway, financed by barter arrangements, that travels deep in Russian territory in the Far East. Due to finances, Moscow this week announced a major cut to the expansion of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railway. This route is one that was expected to expand China-Russia trade. Without it, there will be a bottleneck hurting cross-border trade between the two states. Despite China’s attempt to publicly remain friendly to Russia, tensions are mounting.
If needed, China has additional options to cooperating with Russia to gain access to trade routes. Beijing is rapidly laying down track across Central Asia that will allow it to ship goods to the West bypassing Russia and any sanctions concerns over countries doing business with Russia. China is moving into Russia’s areas of influence in Central Asia. Putin finds himself in a position where there is little he can do to alter the course of China’s expansion and influence, except to create conflict in the Far north.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
Photo: Pixabay