Upon assuming the presidency in 2013 President Xi Jinping embarked on an ambitious mission to remake the world order into a Chinese-style system led by Beijing. This year the country’s economy is expected to account for about 1/3 of total global economic growth. Unlike mature economies that typically expand more slowly, China has been moving at a relatively fast pace. It may be moving too quickly. Some areas in the developing world see China as brutally exploiting them to extract the raw materials needed to support the communist giant’s burgeoning economy. China appears unprepared for the political challenges arising in these regions from its aggressive policies. Beijing is also struggling to protect its overseas nationals facing anti-Chinese attitudes and violent attacks. On March 31, in the Central African Republic (CAR), gunmen charged a goldmine near Bangui, the capital. They murdered nine Chinese workers.
Previously the Chinese Embassy in the CAR sent out warnings to its nationals, telling them to evacuate the external provincial areas of the country. Chinese officials refer to the CAR as “extremely high risk.” John S. Van Oudenaren, writing in the China Brief last week, reported that the Chinese Embassy issued the alert saying the attack demonstrated the extreme necessity of evacuating Chinese companies and nationals in areas outside the capital as soon as possible. He adds that Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stressed that General Secretary Xi Jinping was “closely monitoring the situation” and had instructed that immediate action be taken to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals in the CAR and to “severely punish the murderers” (严惩凶手). Exactly who perpetrated the attack remains, however, uLast week aclear, according to Oudenaren.
Russia’s Wagner Group is active near the gold mine and may have been involved. The group deployed there to protect the central government five years ago, according to the South China Morning Post. “The timing of the attack and subsequent allegations of Wagner’s involvement was inopportune for Xi as he prepared to travel to Moscow the following day for meetings with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as Beijing sought to position itself as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine War,” says Oudenaren. Chinese reporters immediately started a campaign to reject Western media who insinuated that the Wagner Group was attempting to undermine Sino-Russian relations.
Former Global Times editor Hu Xijin suggested that in the “2020s anyone who kills a Chinese national will face severe punishment and retribution.” A post on Tencent supported Hu’s statement saying: “the Central Africa Republic owes us nine lives” before going on to blame the US-led West for treating Africa as a “modern colonial territory” and creating conditions for “vicious attacks” on Chinese companies to drive them out of emerging markets. Incidents such as the gold mine murders highlight Beijing’s problem with its overseas economic expansion in areas of chronic economic instability.
The population’s widespread expectation that the government will exact swift retribution against the perpetrators of attacks on Chinese nationals overseas also puts Xi in a difficult position, according to Oudenaren. He points out that popular assumptions about the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) ability to target armed groups in distant and difficult operational environments do not align with its actual capabilities. Although the PLA is more modern than in previous decades, it possess a limited capacity to conduct complex, joint operations outside of East Asia.
In reality, the PLA and People’s Armed Police (PAP) have a minimal overseas basing presence, with the only currently operational overseas PLA base in the small Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti, reports Ta Kung Pao newspaper. This means Beijing has a limited ability to perform a strategic sea or airlift, if needed. Chinese businesses, like those of many other nations, typically rely on their home governments to secure the operating environment. The physical security gap is filled by Chinese Private Security Companies (PSC’s) who work in conjunction with local security contractors. PSC’s often include former Chinese military personnel and policemen. Beijing uses this type of set up in many locations conducting extraction of natural resources under its Belt and Road Initiative, in addition to official government forces. As China’s reach grows, so do the complications of its aggressive foreign and economic policies from the CAR, Sudan and Somalia in Africa to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The March killing in the CAR highlights yet another challenged China faces as it expands its economic interests beyond East Asia. The cost is not only lives lost overseas, Xi is also paying a domestic price as Chinese workers and businesses are beginning to quietly question his leadership. Xi talks publicly about China’s ability to strike anywhere at anytime yet it is proving itself unable to strike back against threats to its citizens working overseas.