Japanese kamikaze pilots in World War II did immense damage to enemy forces in the Pacific. Carrying one ton of explosives in the nosecone of each plane, the Japanese Air Force sank 34 naval ships and damaged hundreds of others. They achieved their mission about 19% of the time. The cost was great as Japan lost about 2,800 skilled pilots and 1,387 aircraft. Kamikaze planes are still in use today in the war in Ukraine, however, now they are controlled remotely by pilots wielding a control stick far from the battlefield. Russian lives are not at stake.
Russian forces are employing Iranian kamikaze drones to destroy Ukraine’s physical infrastructure. The Kyiv Independent newspaper reported last fall that Russia is actively incorporating them into the battlefield. In mid-February, the publication Unian published a report saying that Putin was running low on stocks of Iranian-built drones. At the same time Russian-friendly states werevproviding alternative sources for Moscow.
It appears anti-Western governments are resorting to a plan this year that includes building a joint Russian-Iranian drone factory inside Russia to supply the country with the needed equipment to ratchet up the pressure on the Ukrainian government and its air defense systems. Sine Ozkarasahin, of the Jamestown Foundation, notes that “Such a scenario would grant Russia easier access to a continuous stream of Iranian kamikaze drones….”
Worse yet, if the Russian-Iranian deal is cemented, a drone facility in the imminent neighborhood of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have immense strategic implications. It would shorten the length of Russian supply lines and put armed drones next to NATO Member states who oppose Putin’s war. It would have far-reaching implications for the future security of NATO’s eastern flank and represent a new and elevated threat to Western Europe.
Tehran is complicit in this operation. It will add to its global production network that already includes countries such as Tajikistan, Syria, and Venezuela. The facility, according to open source intelligence, is to be built east of Moscow in the town of Yelabuga, and produce about 6,000 Iranian drone annually. America military intelligence suggests that this could be a significant force multiplier for Putin in his upcoming spring offensive. Ozkarasahin says the plant will be much more sustainable than the frequent drone transfers in a highly dangerous and logistically challenging hot zone. He adds that the facility can “provide Russia with key strategic benefits, such as easy access to spare parts and maintenance support.”
The Yelabuga site, which is near the Kama River, appears part of a trend in Iranian military complexes in which some of Tehran’s most critical missile production facilities (including the ones in Parchin and Baniyas) are all located near a water supply, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Ozkarasahin suggests this could be indicative of a potential new spot for Iranian missile production of the Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 kamikaze drones already in use in Ukraine by Russian forces.
Of additional concern is that the production line could include modified versions of these drones equipped with unmanned aerial vehicles capable of a higher air speed and longer range. Last month Eurasian Times reported that some intelligence sources are confirming the Iranians have already embarked on this journey, by modifying the traditional Shahed-131’s to include more destructive warheads.
This represents a potential broader threat to NATO. Other states unfriendly to the West, including China and Armenia, are already providing Putin’s war machine with supplies sanctioned by the West. They circumvent sanctions by selling Russia semi-conductors and subcomponents of critical systems to Moscow, according to Eurasianet this week. If the Russian-Iranian axis continues growing NATO may be faced with yet another threat to its strategic advantage. If shot down NATO’s most sophisticated systems could provide Iran with newer technology and counter-drone advances that make a technological challenge to the Western alliance closer to an alarming reality. The word kamikaze originated in Japan over 740 years ago and was used to refer to the wrath of typhoons that beset the island nation and stopped Kublai Khan from conquering Japan. Iran’s drones could alter the balance of power in Europe and as a modern day “divine wind” threaten a vast area of Europe.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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