The war in Ukraine is reverberating around the world. On the Korean peninsula it is increasing ROK awareness of the value of its alliance with the US as a buffer against hostility by foreign forces. It is also intensifying concerns about the South’s vulnerability as a nuclear-weapons-free power facing nuclear-armed state just to its north. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) study argues that “For North Korea, the war in Ukraine seems to have amplified the importance of nuclear weapons for its security while prompting Pyongyang to consider a new “first use” nuclear doctrine as well as the operational deployment of tactical nuclear weapons—imitating Putin’s tactics in Ukraine.” The collective shifts in the North’s posture since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, has produced a favorable external environment for North Korea’s continued development of its nuclear and missile programs. “Its increasing weapons capabilities, its threats to use nuclear weapons for offensive purposes, and the vulnerability of US national missile defense interceptors to North Korean multiple independent reentry vehicle technologies have led the South Koreans to question the credibility of US extended deterrence,” it argues. The CSIS report conclude it is time for Washington to reassess traditional approaches to the North Korean nuclear issue.
The United States military is not retreating. In February, the US and South Korea plan to expand joint field exercises and bolster joint capabilities to deter and respond to North Korean nuclear and missile threats, the defense chiefs of both countries said on Tuesday, according to USNI News. The Korean peninsula is sometimes referred to as the land of lousy options. It has been long considered a global flashpoint where nuclear war could break out. Lately it is in the news more as tensions in the region are increasing due to continuing provocations by North Korea and its violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-Sup and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin condemned the north for recent drone incursions and missile launches in a joint statement issued at the defense ministerial meeting on January 31, 2023, in Seoul. They confirmed the ROK-US Alliance is strong and standing together with the international community. The leaders pointed out that the US, ROK, Japan, and NATO are prepared to “bolster the alliance capabilities to deter and respond to North Korean nuclear and missile threats, as well as to expand information sharing and joint planning,” says Dzirhan Mahadzir of USNI News.
The Deterrence Strategy Committee Table-top Exercise (DSC TTX) to be held in February is expected to assess and develop response options to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat. Going forward the types of defense activities envisioned include deployments of F-22s, F-35s and additional visits by the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group. Last October the Strike Group arrived in Busan, South Korea, with a dual focus of increasing the readiness of US and ROK forces and maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula. The current US extended deterrence commitment is Washington’s pledge to devote the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to deter and, if necessary, defeat an external attack on South Korea. “It involves two central purposes: to deter North Korean aggression in all of its forms, and to prevent nuclear proliferation by providing South Korea with an alternative to developing its own nuclear weapons to meet its security needs,” according to CSIS.
The CSIS report suggests that an additional element needs to be considered in 2023: coordinated positions on the peninsula with those of China. It argues it would be productive for the allies to establish a bilateral consultative mechanism to share assessments of the implications of China’s military capabilities for the Korean peninsula and coordinate potential responses. Although Beijing is intricately involved in maintaining stability in the region, it is highly unlikely to work jointly with Washington on such an effort. China is continuing aggressive behavior overseas and has increased its pressure tactics against Washington to derail alliance deterrence initiatives while also attempting to unilaterally influence the behavior of Kim Jong-un, the Supreme leader of North Korea. The peninsula, as one military analyst points out, is a “powder keg waiting to blow.” It may take the war in Ukraine to encourage China to join with other states to secure the region.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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