The Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon may be floating well above US continental space designated for commercial aircraft, but this week military analysts around Washington are asking “How low can China go?” This is not the first incidence of a Chinese intrusion into US air space or into that of another country. In recent years the communist giant has violated the land, air, and legally recognized, territorial waters surrounding several Asian nations. Since China’s opening to the West over four decades ago, Beijing has been given a pass on its belligerent behavior from other countries and international organizations. The increasing number of intrusions in recent years has several purposes according to military analysts, expert in studying Chinese military tactics and strategy.
The latest incident, which is ongoing this week, involves a Chinese balloon reported to be the size of three school buses. It was spotted first over the Aleutian Islands off Alaska before moving eastward toward the continental US. It then traveled close to sensitive US military installations in Montana. The balloon triggered a security alert that involved briefing the US president and taking military measures to protect American assets from aerial surveillance and other possible hostile actions. A decision was made in Washington to watch but not remove it, although there was a period when it was safe to do so without consequences to people on the ground or US infrastructure. What makes this incident intriguing is not only the potential danger it posed, but China’s capacity to operate just below the level of a national security threat requiring a military response.
China’s PLAAF (People’s Liberation Army Air Force) and PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) approach foreign military forces legally patrolling their home territories on a regular basis. Canada this week is also monitoring a potential Chinese surveillance balloon over its territory. The frequency and intensity of potential engagements is increasing, but the leadership in Beijing is adept at remaining below the threshold that would require a military response. With each incident China gains invaluable intelligence information. Some of it derives from the actual surveillance event; much of it comes from testing a potential future adversary’s response to the intrusion. Like young children who often poke a finger at another repeatedly to provoke a response, Beijing is learning how far it can go before it must retreat to avoid getting smacked back.
“Montana, a sparsely populated state, is home to one of only three nuclear missile silo fields in the country, at Malmstrom Air Force Base… [an] official said the apparent spy craft was flying over sensitive sites to collect information,” according to a BBC report Wednesday.
Previous incidents did not involve the surveillance balloon remaining aloft over the US for such an extended period of time.
It appears China is ratcheting up its testing of American willpower to respond. So far, Washington is letting China poke the United States without much pushback. The question that needs to be addressed now is Why is China willing to repeatedly poke the US at a time when relations are already tense?
China already has an extensive system of surveillance satellites, some of which are military in nature. It has proven its offensive military technology in tests that indicate it can move its satellites from one orbit to another to knock out foreign communications and other geostationary satellites.
The US, according to one analyst, is still working to develop a comparative capability to counter China’s space war technology. As China approaches a rough military par with advanced Western nations in the coming decades, Beijing may be more concerned with gathering information about how foreign nations make command decisions in response to security threats. China’s military is gaining technology but remains devoid of real combat experience. It may be the major reason Xi Jinping had yet to invade Taiwan. The PLAAF and PLAN appear to be testing the waters and gathering information.
Unlike Western leaders, Chinese political culture demands its leaders think in generational terms. As Sun Tzu wrote long ago, “move to higher ground to see farther.” The threat from China needs to be viewed as a long-term one that is not going away. Coddling Beijing allows it the catch up time it needs to poke everyone and gain valuable experience. As long as the West allows it to occur, China will continue to provoke other countries.
Washington needs to recognize what is happening today is similar to a long-term commercial negotiation in which one side continues to demand concessions until the other side says enough. Only in this case it is physical and the threat has the potential to be nuclear.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, and lived for a time in China.
Illustration: Pixabay