The coalition of Western political leaders remains focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine but, it is not the only strategic location where Putin is active. He is also quietly expanding Russian efforts to combat democratic moves in the Global South. Western media often miss that message and rarely cover Russian activities in Africa. Putin’s agenda is aided by a lack of serious Western media coverage of political events in the sub-Saharan region. Over recent decades major news organizations, including the New York Times, have closed many news bureau locations on the continent, and left some of the remaining bureau chief positions unfilled for long periods. The important Nairobi bureau chief position for the NY Times, which covers many countries, was left open for several years. The lack of coverage creates a strategic political opening for Putin. Morris Kiruga, writing in The Africa Report, calls an advertisement for the NY Times Nairobi position “better suited for an 18th-cenutry explorer than a 21st-century critical journalism role.” The ad for the position is an indication of the type of political coverage coming out of Africa in recent years. It called for a journalist who seeks “a tremendous opportunity to dive into news and enterprise across a wide range of countries, from the deserts of Sudan and the pirate seas of the Horn of Africa, down through the forests of Congo and the shores of Tanzania.” The NY Times’ mile wide, inch-deep coverage of Africa, along with a dearth of news from other media, aids Putin’s outreach in South Africa.
The fake Russian discourse in South Africa, barely covered by journalists, seeks to circumvent Western alliance efforts to strengthen relationships in the Global South. Last week Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to South Africa for a working visit to encourage the country’s political leadership to become more neutral due to the West’s escalating pressure on Russia. Pavel Baev, of the Jamestown Foundation, points out that Lavrov’s hosts appeared very receptive to the outreach effort and that some viewed the level of Western unity against Russia “discomforting.” The trip is aimed to lay groundwork for the second Russa-African Summit scheduled for late July 2023 in St. Peterburg. Baev reports that the “the content of these strenuously cultivated ties has changed profoundly since the first such summit in Sochi in October 2019.” South Africa is the fifth member of the BRIC multilateral grouping that also includes Brazil, China, India, and Russia. Baev suggests that Moscow finds the group’s “vitriolic anti-Western discourse rather useful” although trade among BRIC countries remains small and investments insignificant.
During Lavrov’s trip the foreign minister avoided raising the Wagner Group’s activities in Africa, despite Washington’s delayed designation of the group as a “significant transnational criminal organization” on January 26, 2023. “The Kremlin has denounced this characterization as “demonization,” but Wagner’s track record of operations in the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mali is rich with evidence of looting, torture and murder” says Paev. He notes the Russian Foreign Ministry conducts no oversight of Wagner’s networks and “may be clueless as to whether the group is planning an expansion toward Burkina Faso, which has severed traditional military ties with France.”
Russia’s transatlantic outreach is quite limited and its position in the Middle East is weakening, adding credence to recent reports of increased Russian efforts to make Africa its foreign policy priority by default. To date there is little extended Russian-Chinese regional cooperation in Africa. Russia is sending only one ship to the region for a joint naval exercise with China in 2023. Beijing prefers working unilaterally in Africa, despite Russian attempts of regional cooperation with its communist partner. Beijing also shunned Russian offers of Wagner mercenaries for its security and instead is developing its own quasi-private forces in Africa.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambition for the Russian-African summit, to which Lavrov invited the king of Eswatini, is not only to compete with the US-Africa Leaders Summit held in Washington in December 2022 but also to demonstrate to China the value of Russia’s connections on the continent,” according to Baev. Putin is not in a strong position in Africa but is pushing to compete on the ground with China and the Democratic West. New trouble could be brewing with Russia’s Wagner Group in Africa this summer. Putin may decide to use his mercenaries to score a victory in a more fragile African state. The best, although counterintuitive, outcome is for Kyiv to do well enough that Moscow must concentrate on Ukraine and leave Africa alone this summer.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
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