Ten years ago, most demographers studying global population trends failed to pay close attention to what was occurring inside the world’s two most populous nations, India and China. Few analysts recognized that both nations were on a highly destructive path that would eventually lead to the demise of their economies and cultures. One of the states recognized the situation in time to reverse its social policies; the other did not acknowledge the trend. India’s population curve is about 25 years behind China’s. Mumbai recognized it and made the decision to vacate its family planning policies in time to save the country. China did not and today is facing a grave situation that is irreparable.
“With this historical turn, China has entered a long and irreversible process of population decline, the first time in China and the world’s history,” according to Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California. The situation in China is so severe that Wang and other researchers point out that in less than 80 years China’s population could be reduced by 45%. China will become unrecognizable to the world. Although China’s population in 2021 increased by 480,000, the United nations predicts it will begin its decline this year as India takes over as the world’s most populous nation. According to UN population experts, by 2050 China will lose 109 million.
Covid sped up the process and continues to impact predictions. Forecasts about the size and speed of the decline have tripled since 2019. Last year’s fertility rate in China was well below the OECD’s standard of 2.1 births required to maintain a stable population. Of the 10 most populous nations in the world, China’s rate of 1.18 was the lowest. Even if every woman in China, throughout her entire child-bearing years, had as many children as physically possible, China cannot make up the deficit create by CCP policies.
Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed power over a decade ago, during a period when the narrative depicted China as a land so filled with people that it required severe family planning measures to limit the growth of its population, or it would face starvation. Without the population control programs in place from 1980-2015, leaders believed China would be unable to produce enough food to feed itself in the future. India was on a similar path but soon recognized the fallacy of the argument in time to remedy their situation. It can recover. China has failed and is experiencing a terminal decline that will change the economy for the next 100 years. The Chinese people are paying the price for the CCP’s failed policies. The National Health Commission in Beijing acknowledges that the country can expect to see the decline begin as early as next year.
India’s population also is greying, but at a much slower rate, which will allow it to recover. Farah Master, writing in Reuters, points out that “Google Trends show a 15% year-on-year increase in searches for baby bottles in 2022” in India and searches for cribs increased almost five-fold. Baby stroller searches online in China dropped last year by 17% and are down 41% since 2018. More dire yet is that searches on China’s Baidu indicates that searches for elder-case exploded by eight-fold in 2022.
Demographer Yi Fuxian expects China’s over 65 population will be close to 37% in 2050. This is a dramatic increase from last year when it was only 14%. Even that number represents an increase of 9% over 1980 numbers. Yi says that the declining birth rate means that “Rapid aging is slowing China’s economy, reducing revenues, and increasing government debt… China is getting old before it gets rich.” That puts Xi Jinping in a tough position. CCP policies encouraging couples to have additional children have rendered few positive results. Consumer prices, along with the cost of child-rearing in cities, remains high. There is also a shortage of middle-class housing and a younger population uninterested in sacrificing their lifestyle to raise a large family. Many in Shanghai and Beijing are foregoing children altogether. The only way for China to increase its numbers is to acquire new citizens that resemble the native population. Xi will have a difficult time attracting young women from other countries in Asia to move to China. His legacy may be one he never intended: the fall of the CCP.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.
Illustration: Pixabay