Italy changes government as often as some people buy shoes – new ones for each season. Last month Italy get again formed a new government led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She immediately began a public diplomacy effort. She attended meetings in Asia and Europe with world leaders with the intend to dispel rumors speculating that Italy was heading toward a possible “Magyarization” (“Hungarization”) of Italy’s foreign policy. Claudia Palazzo, of the Jamestown Foundation, notes that that this had been “concerning for Rome’s NATO and EU partners in the sense that the country might turn intransigent and isolated.”
Earlier this month, the Italian Parliament decreed that the government is allowed to supply military aid, by way of exception, to Ukraine without the need to seek new approvals from Parliament. This is an extension of Rome’s February 25 decree that was scheduled to conclude at the end of December. Palazzo argues that this extension has “much more consequential political meaning than its apparent eminently technical content.” Its content is remaining secret to limit Russian access to the information, although the press has revealed some details.
The current makeup of the Italian Parliament, according to Palazzo, doesn’t permit Italian-Russian ties to directly impact its decision-making. But, she argues, it should be viewed from the perspective of Italy’s homeland security. At the beginning of December, Italy extended its military personnel’s participation in the NATO Very High Readiness joint Task Force. This comes after last month’s announcement by Defense Minister Guido Crosetto that Rome will pursue dedicating its “2% of GDP funds” for military spending as required by NATO.
Like much of Europe, Italy’s citizens are experiencing significant penetration of Russian propaganda and a high number of Russian operatives working in the “grey zones” of society and trade. Of concern to security officials is that foreign threats within Italy are operationally managers by law enforcement branches trained to respond only to domestic threats and may be less effective against Russia. This had led to a stalemate between Paris and Rome over migrant policy.
Immigration management, according to Palazzo, “can be easily magnified to shake the respective consensus that seems to have emerged in European public opinion, with each country hoping to push the European partners to pick their side.” The Balkan states, she adds, have been waiting for Rome to play a central role in mediating relations with the European Union (EU). So far, the new government appears to be continuing the policies of the previous one as well as maintaining a similar foreign policy that aligns with that of the United States NATO, and the EU.
What is new is Rome’s attention to resolving issues in the Balkans, something the EU as a whole has been unable to accomplish. Italy’s newly independent foreign policy emphasizes leveraging its own ties to the region and capitalizing on how it holistically benefits the European community. Second, is a trend toward improving the defense and strategic aspects for cooperating with third countries. Palazzo suggests that this lies in the willingness and ability of Rome to leverage its assets, among which “military know-how and production capability are among the most significant,” and can serve as a solid basis for expanding cooperation and acquiring new partnerships. Etiene Soula, a research analyst with the Alliance for Securing Democracy, says that “Amidst the cascading effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine, soaring energy prices and rampant inflation negatively impacting the whole EU, the foreign policy outlook of the [European] Union’s third-largest economy will be particularly important over the coming months.” He points out that Italy’s policies towards Moscow, as well as the government’s approach to allies in Brussels and Washington, will be “critical” to maintaining a united front against Russia’s aggression while preserving European cohesion on sanctions and military support for Ukraine. It appears that Europe is developing a more unified position in responding to the Russian threat despite attempts by its intelligence operatives to influence opinions and previous Italian governments.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.