Rising Sun’s Rising Importance

Japan is emerging as a major player in international politics in Asia and Europe. For the first time in the country’s history, it will send a representative to attend a NATO Summit. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will travel to Madrid, Spain later this month to participate in the June 28-30 meetings with 30 NATO allies. “Sweden and Finland, which have applied to join NATO, are sending delegations to the summit, and South Korea’s new President Yoon Suk-yeol will also be the first leader from his country to attend,” according to the publication Space Wars. The Summit will prove a test of Japan’s diplomatic clout in the West four months into the Russian war in Ukraine. Japan already has delivered military supplies to Ukraine and has imposed significant sanctions on the Russian regime. It is the only Asian nation that is a member of the G7. On Friday Kishida gave a keynote speech where he warned that “I myself have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” In East Asia, Japan also is stepping up statements and policy measures in the face of a more aggressive Chinese foreign policy.

Both the United States and Japan consider a free and open Indo-Pacific region critical to the stability of the international rules-based system. Kishida recently called out China for its support of Putin’s war in Ukraine and said that Beijing needs to contribute to arrangements that reduce nuclear risks, increase transparency, and advance nuclear disarmament. The newly published “2022 Diplomatic Bluebook” from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in Japan, also mentions the importance of freedom of navigation for the Taiwan Strait for the first time since the 2016 edition. It is notable that this year’s edition has six mentions of it, a clear indication of a policy change by Tokyo. The Bluebook is an annual report by MOFA that serves as the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign policy and activities. “The Taiwan issue [is] featured alongside Japan’s concerns over the disputed Senkaku islands, the South and East China Seas, and humanitarian issues in Hong Kong and China.…it also revealed the lurking fissures in [the Japan-China] relationship,” according to Victor Lin of The Diplomat. Japan is sending a message to the world on the 50^th anniversary of the normalization of relations between China and Japan.

Perhaps more remarkable is that the Japan-ASEAN section of the Bluebook highlights Kishida‘s comments on “the importance of the peace and stability in the Taiwan strait” made at the 16th East Asia Summit (EAS) while expressing strong opposition to any economic coercion. During this speech Kishida emphasized that a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea – currently under negotiations between China and ASEAN – “should be in accordance with the United Nations Convention on Maritime Law. That Taiwan was included alongside the South China Sea among Japan’s concerns in Southeast Asia is remarkable,” notes Lin. “One breakthrough in Japan’s stance on Taiwan issues could be seen in its efforts to highlight the importance of the Taiwan Strait by leveraging the influence of both regional and international frameworks, as manifested through the mention of stability in the Taiwan Strait at the EAS and G-7 summit,” he added.

Since the April 2021 Joint US-Japan Leaders’ Statement, released under then-Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, Tokyo has intensified its level of support for Taiwan. Japan’s position regarding China and Tokyo’s leadership role in the Indo-Pacific is in line with the country’s “2021 Defense of Japan” document. Daisuke Akimoto, of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy, also points out that the revised Bluebook mentions “for the first time in 19 years that the Northern Territories have ‘illegally been occupied’ by Russia…[and] that Japan is currently in no position to resume diplomatic negotiations toward a Japan-Russia peace treaty.” China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific and Putin’s war in Ukraine are responsible for the vast revisions to the Bluebook and Japan’s readopted hardline stance on the territorial dispute with Russia. Kishida considers it more important than ever for Japan to take a strong stand on foreign policy issues given Russia’s war and Chinese military moves in the South and East China Seas. He recently has gone as far as stating that the country is considering acquiring a preemptive strike capability, which some analysts say would violate Japan’s war-renouncing constitution.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

U.S. Navy Losing Dominance

From the Caribbean to the Mediterranean to the Pacific, the naval forces of Russia and China have challenged the once-dominant position of the United States. On July 18, U.S. Army Gen. Laura J. Richardson, in a speech at the Aspen Institute, warned that Russian warships have been making port visits to Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and 22 nations in the U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility has signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the commander of Southcom told attendees of the Aspen Security Forum. Army Gen. Laura J. Richardson said the nations that have signed on to the Chinese initiative don’t see the investments the U.S. has been making in their countries. “All they see are the Chinese cranes,” she said. “These projects are in the billions of dollars. … They are big-time projects.” Richardson said it would be OK with her if those investments were for doing good in the hemisphere. “But it makes me a little suspicious when it’s in the critical infrastructure.” Critical infrastructure, she said, includes deep-water ports, cybersecurity, energy and space. “I worry about the dual use nature of that. These are state-owned enterprises by a communist government. I worry about the flipping of that to a military application,” Richardson said, referring to China. Regarding the Russian port visits, Richardson said U.S. vessels have been shadowing those vessels to ensure the safety and security of the United States. Also, the Russians continue to make high-level government visits to Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua with their foreign affairs minister and the head of the Russian legislative body, she said, adding that the U.S. could be doing more in its own government exchanges. “I really believe that economic security and national security go hand in hand here in this hemisphere, and we have got to work both of them together very, very quickly,” she said. In the Mediterranean, according to the Bulgarian Military A fleet, including the missile cruiser Varyag and the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, has successfully navigated the Suez Canal, transitioning from the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, as confirmed by the Pacific Fleet [PF] on Wednesday. The authoritative GIS Reports notes that “In the crucial Indo-Pacific, the tide has changed dramatically against America. the balance of naval power in the Western Pacific has been altered in favor of the Chinese Navy. For instance, the U.S. Navy went from having a 76-warship advantage over China in 2005 to having a 39-combatant deficiency in 2023, based on similar ship and submarine comparisons. That is a swing of 115 naval platforms in 23 years. This is a strategic trend that will continue uninterrupted for at least the next decade.” Rep. Mike Rogers has previously pointed out that The Biden Administration’s 30-year ship-building plan reduces the Navy’s ability to protect its aircraft-carrier strike groups and eliminate enemy minefields, reduces the Marine Corps’ ability to conduct forcible-entry missions, and reduces by almost 10 percent the Navy’s capacity to launch missiles. Public estimates indicate that China will eventually develop a global force of submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles, posing an obvious risk to the U.S. China’s surface-combatant forces already greatly exceed that of the U.S. Photo: Vessels attached to a flotilla with the navy under the PLA Southern Theater Command sail toward the designated area during a comprehensive combat training exercise in late June, 2024. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Huang Jiacheng and Wang Jian)

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