Passing the 100-day mark of war in Ukraine last week Russian troops losses have now mounted to levels unseen since WWII. As with deaths from the earlier war the conflict in Ukraine is again decimating the male population in a country where the birth rate already is among the lowest in the world, at 1.5 births per woman. The loss of additional males fighting inside Ukraine, on top of those lost in the pandemic, is likely to hurt Russia’s chance to reverse the negative, longer-term demographic trends in the coming years. Some analysts are calling Putin’s capturing of Ukrainians and moving them into Russian territory an attempt to repopulate the country.
Although the final numbers for the 2020 Russian census have not yet been released, there are preliminary statistical readouts that are troublesome for the Russian economy. The “early census figures show that the populations of two-thirds of the country’s federal subjects have declined. Only one-third saw any sort of increase, and this was almost exclusively in regions like Moscow, St. Petersburg and other megalopolises where surging urbanization pulled people out not only of the countryside but out of smaller cities,” according to the Jamestown Foundation.
Since April, the government in Moscow has instituted plans which require the drafting of just over 134,500 military recruits. However, during the same period it also is scheduled to release from service a similar number. This twice-a-year draft of 18-27-year old men is compounded by two serious challenges for Putin. Many families fear that their sons will be sent to the front in Ukraine and die. Second, is that a large number of young, highly educated males have fled Russia for safe countries in Europe and elsewhere. The brain drain, especially among those with IT and other technical expertise, is not only impacting military recruiting of the good talent needed to handle sophisticated weapons system but also commercial industries in the country. The Kremlin is providing “deferments” to many IT specialist to encourage them to remain in Russia as it fears that those who leave never will return. The result is an even smaller cohort of young men to draft.
Jozef Davydowski reports in The Insider, a Russian language publication, that “Russia has practically exhausted its resources in missiles and trained military, does not have a clear strategy and is completely disorganized, and therefore suffers huge losses.” Anger among Russian families and new recruits is rising as Putin is using heavy-handed methods to press the country’s youth into military service to meet its quota. According to Paul Goble, of the Jamestown Foundation, Russian leaders hoped to end the war by June to avoid the failure of meeting its military recruiting numbers and ongoing disobedience among its troops.
The Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting is saying that Central Asians working in Russia in lower-paying jobs are leaving the country by the millions and pay is decreasing by up to 50% as demand for products goes down due to global sanctions against Russia. At the same time food and other prices have risen dramatically in the country. Some reports, according to the Institute suggest that foreign labor are down by more than 40%, making it impossible for these laborers to repatriate funds to their families abroad. Another impact is that Russian men who might have enlisted in the army are now taking jobs once were held by the lower-skilled foreign labor force. Although young men became ill with Covid less often that other demographic groups, those with lingering effects from the virus may still be called up to meet the army’s enlistment quotas.
The long-term impact on the Russian economy, the ethnic makeup of its population, and victory in the war in Ukraine remains unknowns. Demographers familiar with similar environments suggest that Russia may be facing a crisis greater than first realized and longer-term in its nature. Putin’s response may be to view a win in Ukraine as the only possible solution. If he views this as his only option for saving the motherland, it makes him an even greater danger to the Ukrainian people and the free world.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department
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