In an effort to portray itself as a stabilizing force in the Middle East, the UAE is attempting to normalize its relations with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. “US focus on the Middle East had already begun to drift since President Biden took office in January 2021, and the conflict in Ukraine has ensured its focus remains away from Syria,” according to Andrew Devereux of the Jamestown Foundation. That is creating a competitive opportunity for other states in the region to strengthen their ties with the regime in Damascus. In March, al-Assad made a ceremonial trip to the UAE where he met briefly with Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum and the de-facto UAE leader and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, now President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan. The day-long trip marked the first time since the Syrian war began in 2011 that al-Assad visited an Arab country. The State Department called the trip “disappointing and troubling.”
Shifting from opposition of al-Assad in recent years, to one of gradual support, the UAE today is supporting Syria’s potential readmission to the Arab League. “Attempts to reintegrate Syria into the Arab world,” notes Devereux, “are part of the UAE’s wider strategy of diversifying global relationships.” With much of the world concentrating on events unfolding in Ukraine, the UAE leveraged the opportunity to quietly expand its commercial interests in Syria. The UAE already has strong trade relations with China and India. It is highly unlikely the US will sanction the UAE for its actions as Abu Dhabi provides an alternative supply to Russian energy at a critical time. Washington also is ignoring the UAE’s refusal to support the Biden Administration’s position in Ukraine. Washington and Abu Dhabi still work close together in other areas areas, including bilateral-terrorism and security issues. “Maintaining working relations with multiple major powers and hedging bets that the US will remain distracted appears to be working for the UAE,” says Devereux.
Despite the chill in relations between 2012-2018, UAE-Syrian relations are strong. It was Dubai that urged the UAE to further strengthen the bilateral relationship this spring, according to Kamal Alam, a journalist writing in The Middle East Eye. He points out that “Business and trade links remained active despite the war in Syria and even before the formal reopening of the UAE’s embassy in Damascus, with informal meetings through middlemen in Dubai.” In February Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the UAE in a move that analysts in Washington say indicates that Turkey has dropped its confrontational stance to former opponents in Syria. This comes after al-Assad used the Kurdish issue to link up with Abu Dhabi’s security establishment and put pressure on Ankara. Alam writes that a former Syrian leader told him: “”Our embrace never loosened. It just froze, and now the summer has arrived again, and the ice has melted [with the UAE].”
The UAE’s moves toward normalization with Syria are likely tied to future plans rather than trying to force al-Assad into immediately decoupling from Tehran. “Iran is a major player in the Syrian melting pot, providing billions of dollars of assistance and material support, but the UAE is able to offer advantages that Tehran cannot,” says Devereux. UAE-Syrian relations encompass a complex network of motivations. For the UAE they are driven primarily by Abu Dhabi’s longing to reach out across the Middle East and be seen a stabilizing force with enhanced influence. Syria in return received humanitarian aid from the UAE along with a promise of investment in solar powered energy plant. In recent months, improved bilateral relations have served as a safety valve for Syrian youth trying to escape the poverty and dangerous environment in their country. Many moved to the UAE after Abu Dhabi removed many of its travel restrictions.
UAE overtures to Syria have lit a hot debate over the morality of normalizing relations with Syria given its long history of extreme human rights abuses. “At the center of the discussion are arguments about the best way to end Syria’s long civil war, and whether the country’s isolation — enforced in part by crippling Western sanctions — furthers that goal,” according to Sarah Dadouch of the Washington Post. The war in Ukraine may be catalyst that brings Syria in from the cold after a decade of civil war. Questions remain… Is this a positive given al-Assad’s brutality… that he remains in power… and even if deposed in the future, there is no viable alternative leadership inside Syria.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.