On February 27, and again on March 5, North Korean President Kim Jong Un ordered the launching of an unidentified medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM)-class booster with the goal of moving Pyongyang’s imagery satellite up into a new operational orbit for testing. In doing so he made good on an objective he presented to his country’s January 2021 Eighth Party Congress, according to Vann Van Diepen, of Organization 38 North. What is of concern to military analysts is that the test of the military reconnaissance satellite may precede flight testing of other capabilities mentioned in the Congress’ report. Van Diepen noted that in the future North Korean launches could include multiple-warhead missiles, solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and ICBM-range solid-propellant submarine-launched ballistic missile capabilities.
South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff notes that Kim may be signaling to the world that the North intends to conduct a satellite launch via a space launch vehicle (SLV). Such a launch would be a significant advance in the state’s space weapons program. On the day following the February launch North Korea issued a short statement saying it conducted “an important test…under the plan of developing a reconnaissance satellite” and that it “is of great significance in developing the reconnaissance satellite.” Van Diepen points out that in addition to helping test future military capabilities, the launches have “propaganda value” and showcase the “regime’s technological prowess and effective leadership.” Pentagon officials described the launches as a “serious escalation” that will result in new sanctions. Spacewar.com is reporting this week that the “Pentagon said rigorous analysis concluded they were actually experimental precursors to a likely full-range ICBM launch.”
DOD Spokesman John Kirby said the tests “involved a new intercontinental ballistic missile system” that Pyongyang had first showcased in October 2020 and that they were intended “to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch.” AFP reports that the Treasury Department plans to announce fresh measures at the end of the week to help prevent Pyongyang accessing “foreign items and technology” to advance that program. Quoting an unnamed US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, it adds that such measures underline that the North’s “unlawful and destabilizing activities have consequences” and that diplomatic negotiations are the only viable path forward for Pyongyang. Japan’s Ministry of Defense also called the tests a “threat to peace and security… that can never be tolerated.”
This year alone, amid Chinese aggressive in the Indo-Pacific and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, North Korea test-launched nine missiles with little international objection. Starting this January North Korea began dropping hints it might completely lift the moratorium on banned hypersonic and medium range ballistic missiles. AFP notes that “A fresh ICBM launch would be an early challenge for South Korea’s new president-elect, Yoon Suk-yeol, who has vowed to take a hard line with the North’s provocations.”
At a time when the world simultaneously watching developments in Ukraine and potential aggression by China toward Taiwan, Kim Jong Un is attempting to regain the spotlight in what may be opening moves to re-open negotiations over aid to North Korea or it may indicate that the North is serious about ramping up aggression on the peninsula under the cover of other international conflicts. The West is not certain about Kim’s intentions. What is known is that the North continues to disguise long-range ballistic missile tests. It must be seen in Beijing as raising the specter of the United States increasing the quality and quantity of missiles it has in South Korea. That can’t be making Xi Jinping smile this week.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department.