Tajikistan and the Taliban

While war between Russia and Ukraine is occupying most of the headlines this week with dramatic visual images of apartment buildings being bombed in Kiev, Ukraine’s “tank man” standing in front of a line of Russian armored tanks, and people fleeing the cities with some on foot, there is another conflict, or perhaps peace, brewing in Central Asia. It is six months since the Taliban took over Afghanistan. In that time Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have comes to terms with the insurgent’s victory and begun the process of initiating diplomatic talks. Tajikistan, however, is not content with the situation and is taking a more cautious and independent approach.

The Taliban tend to favor the Pashtun ethnic group over Afghan Tajiks. “The Tajik Foreign Minister, Sirojiddin Muhriddin reasserted on February 3 that Tajikistan would not change its position until the Taliban formed a ‘truly inclusive government’ and engaged with opposition political and ethnic leaders,” according to Jamestown Foundation’s Jacob Zenn. Tajik leaders in the capital of Dushanbe say they will continue to put pressure on the Taliban by meeting regularly with heads of Afghan opposition groups. Although Tajikistan gave asylum to Afghanistan’s former vice president, Amrullah Saleh, it did agree in December to sign what it calls an “agreement of human assistance” with the new Afghan leaders to continue exporting electricity to Afghanistan along with other countries in the region already exporting energy.

The Taliban are demanding Tajikistan return aircraft it says belonged to the previous government. The United States is involved now as Washington has confirmed officially it expects the aircraft eventually to be returned to the US. However, in January, four months after the botched US withdrawal the Biden White House still had not figured out when or how to return about a dozen American helicopters, among other military hardware. Zenn suggests that “Notwithstanding Tajikistan’s continued openness towards anti-Taliban Afghan opposition figures and refusal to recognize or dialogue with the Taliban, the two countries will find ways to cooperate over matters of mutual urgency and regional initiatives.”

The security environment is more nuanced than it first appears. Amid war in Ukraine there could be a new balance of power brewing among the Central Asian states. Last week a Russian language publication in Moscow reported that the Taliban’s Chief of the General staff of the Taliban Armed Forces, Kari Fasihuddin Fitrat, said the Taliban movement, which Russia calls a terrorist organization and is banned in the Russian Federation, is sending 10,000 militants armed with modern weapons and equipment to the provinces bordering Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Earlier in the year Russia’s Commander of the Central Military District, Alexander Lapin, reported that Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will receive more than 70 weapons along with additional military equipment in 2022. This is reported to include 30 modernized Russian tanks. Although it is a minor buildup of Russian arms compared to elsewhere, Russia is reinserting itself in the region.

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At the same time China’s footprint in Tajikistan is growing. Last October Beijing provided the country $8.5 million to build a military base near its Afghanistan border. China is concerned that Uyghur fighters inside Tajikistan could pose security issues for western China and its BRI Initiative. In 2018 China was the largest foreign investor in the country accounting for 37% of direct foreign investment. It also is the nation’s largest foreign debt holder, with China Export-Import Bank holding more than US$1.1 billion of Tajikistan’s US$3.2 billion in external debt in 2020. According to World Bank figures, China’s BRI project in Tajikistan could cut its trade costs by between 4.5 – 5.6% and reduce the time it takes to transport goods by up to four days. Not only is China building a gas pipeline through the country, Chinese mining companies have secured mining and exploration rights for its extensive reserves of minerals such as silver, lead, zinc, and uranium.

Will this result in a new balance of power between the two communist great powers and among lesser states in the region? Some analysts in Washington suggest this may be the next hot spot to watch if the war in Ukraine spreads. Temur Umarov, of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, says that, “Landlocked regional states derive no benefit from switching one influential neighbor for another. All of them try to diversify their connections to the outside world, and in that, both Russia and China are equally important to them.” China, however, may not be willing for long to share influence in the strategic and mineral rich region with Russia. So far, Chinese diplomas have tread lightly in Tajikistan to ensure no great power conflict arises with Russia. But Umarov also points out “it is entirely incorrect to say that Beijing has ceded the security sphere to Moscow.”

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Tajikistan national flag.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.