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Foreign Policy Update

Despite the extensive media coverage of Putin’s every statement, there are events occurring in the world outside of the potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Some of those are taking place in India where there are mounting questions over the Modi government’s suspected use of spyware on its own citizenry and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. In 2017 Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed off on the purchase of Pegasus spyware designed by the Israeli cyber-arms firm, NCO Group. Since that time there have been numerous allegations of the Indian government using the Pegasus spyware to read text messages, track calls, collect passwords, track locations, and listen in to conversations using the target’s own cell phone microphone and camera, as well as harvesting the information from downloaded apps.

This week there are reports according to Michael Kugelman, writing in Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief, that Indian media have revealed that “two cybersecurity experts told the [Indian Supreme Court appointed] committee there are “strong indicators” that the allegations are true. Although denied by the government, both supporters and their opponents see this as hurting India. The former argue that the accusations mark the latest attempt to malign India. Opponents say it is an example of the government cracking down on civil liberties.

Elsewhere in India, the country remains embroiled in an ongoing border conflict in the Ladakh region of the Himalayan Mountains near China. On Wednesday of this week the two nuclear-armed countries held their 14th round of discussions since June 2020. Although Indian officials characterized the talks as “constructive” there was no movement on either side. At immediate issue is the Hot Springs area where troops are dug in for the winter months. Overall, there are several thousand troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which extends for nearly 2,200 miles and is not demarcated. The 24-month long Ladakh geopolitical crisis reflects domestic concerns in both nation-states with neither government willing to accept a compromise solution. During this crisis reports came out accusing Chinese soldiers of beating their Indian counterparts with nail-studded rods and with some soldiers thrown to their death in freezing river water. Others Indian soldiers died from asphyxiation and hyperthermia. Despite the crisis last year bilateral trade with China topped $100 billion. But all is not well in the region.

Both countries have begun building permanent infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border indicating that this dispute is not the typical short border clash between the two but has the potential for a more serious conflict. The new garrison and airstrips suggest that the conflict may escalate into a more extensive kinetic warfare in the future. A recent South China Morning Post article pointed out that China recently deployed a long-range rocket launcher near the border. Kyle Gardner, an Sino-Indian border expert, warns that this latest development points to a “sustained, broader militarization of the LAC” and highlights the heightened risks of a small-scale conflict. At question is whether China and India’s long-standing agreement on the non-use of firearms may soon be discarded. 

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India has been highly critical of China’s handling of the Covid pandemic while China views India’s security ties and involvement with the US in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as threatening to the communist giant. On Friday President Biden announced its Indo-Pacific strategy will remain much the same as in previous administrations. Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, points out that “The US will continue to muddle along in the region. This plan lacks specificity, lacks detail, and there are major gaps in terms of strengthening America’s geoeconomic position in Asia.” While the world watches and waits to see what aggressive moves Putin makes toward the Ukraine, other large and small states continue to face their own challenges. Jacqueline Feldscher, writing in Defense One, says that “In its first year, the Biden administration consistently talked about the importance of diplomacy and partnerships, and its Indo-Pacific strategy is no different. The strategy mentions  the need to strengthen the Quad, as well as increase cooperation with Japan and South Korea, boost collaboration with India, and expand the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.” So far, the Biden Administration has not made much progress in this area, leaving India and other states in the region to question whether, like Ukraine, they can bet on counting on the United States in a crisis.

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay