During the buildup to an international crisis, such as the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are overlooked undertones that create a more complex and nuanced environment than is presented in the daily news cycle. When it comes to Russian-Ukrainian relations, Turkey is one such confounding factor. While the world is watching and waiting to see if Vladimir Putin creates a conflict in Ukraine, Ankara is playing an active, although less visible, role as one of Moscow’s Black Sea neighbors. Which side it supports, however, is a separate and complicated question.
Seven years after Russia first invaded the Donbass region Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense released video of a TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) striking a separatist D-30 howitzer in eastern Ukraine. The strike was the country’s first confirmed use of the now ubiquitous TB2, a Bayraktar-manufactured drone that the Turkish military has used effectively in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh, which is an area of ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Baykar company chief technology officer is President Erdoğan’s son-in-law.
According to a recently released Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) report, the Turkish-Ukrainian defense relationship is both understudied and potentially an important facet of how Russian political elites view North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support for non-member Ukraine, and its potential to be “used to justify an invasion to assuage Moscow’s concerns about a US-allied military presence along its borders.” The TB2 probably will not alter Putin’s long-term plans but it does reinforce the bureaucratic mistrust between political leaders in Ankara and Moscow.
Turkey stood apart from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Since that time Turkish political leaders have paid close attention to its larger neighbor in an attempt to manage and deepened the relationship with Moscow. Since the 2016 failed coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan liberal institutions in Turkey have deteriorated and an authoritarian state has emerged. Erdoğan pushed away from the West and improved Turkey’s bilateral relationship with Russia. Putin was the first leader post-coup to call the Turkish president. Russia later sold Turkey its S-400 air and missile defense system. The United States warned Turkey of the threat the missiles posed to the F-35 fighter jet program in Turkey. According to the FPRI report, “Turkey was a Tier 3 member of the Joint Strike Fighter consortium and was slated to coproduce 100 F-35As and had explored purchasing a smaller number of F-35Bs for use by the Navy.” Ankara ignored the warnings and was expelled from the program and refused permission to purchase any F-35Bs.
Erdoğan then made two juxtaposed decisions. Turkey signaled it would cooperate with Russia on 5th generation fighter technologies and also look into buying three squadrons of a Flanker variant for shorter term operational needs. At the same time, it also sought out Ukraine as a critical supplier of unmanned systems and turbofan engines for jet powered drones and aircraft for its indigenous defense programs. The Ukrainian-Turkish defense industry relationship remains intact today as each state produces items the other does not. Although it forces Erdoğan into a balancing act with Putin, the two leaders retain bilateral relations despite this issue.
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The Turkish-made Stand-Off Munition, or SOM cruise missile, can be carried by Turkey’s newest drone: the Akinci. The risk it runs is a confrontation with Russian demands that NATO countries refrain from introducing long range missiles in Ukraine. The Biden Administration has “no interest in coercing its NATO ally from halting cooperation with Ukraine,” according to FPRI, but it is worth considering how third-party arms sales could negatively impact US interests in Europe. In the end, President Erdoğan relies on Turkey’s NATO membership to manage its relationship with Vladimir Putin.
Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.
Illustration: Pixabay