Putin’s Russia Is On The Move… Or Is It?

“US intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops,” according to officials in Washington and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post. President Vladimir Putin this week is making blatant demands of President Biden that he guarantee the United States will not send any troops to join NATO in response to a possible Russian offensive or help the Ukraine in any way. In addition, he is demanding that Biden sign a statement promising the United States will not support an expansion of NATO to include Ukraine or Georgia while also limiting US and NATO-related military activity near Russia’s borders.

Washington Post writer Shane Harris, referring to the leaked intelligence document in the paper, writes that an unnamed Biden Administration official told him that “The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders… The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.” Russian forces already appear to be massing in four locations in preparation for an offensive sometime soon after Christmas. According to the US intelligence document, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with “newly arrived” tanks and artillery. US satellite imagery from November indicates that the size of the buildup of troops along the Ukrainian border enables Putin to call for a rapid escalation if he decides to move.

Officials in Washington have not said yet whether they believe Putin has already made the decision to invade the Ukraine. However, all signs indicate an attack is imminent in the coming weeks. Earlier this year Russian forces, in what was labeled a military exercise, rehearsed for a ground and air invasion along the Ukrainian border. After ending the “exercise” Russian forces left heavy military equipment in the area. The forward basing of materiel is a further indication of Russia’s intent to attack in the near future. The US intelligence document leaked to the Washington Post says the placement of “Equipment may be left behind at different training ranges to enable a rapid, final buildup.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in public comments this week, said “We must prepare for all contingencies,” echoing Putin’s warning to the US to stay away and not allow NATO to interfere. Lavrov declared that “The nightmare scenario of military confrontation is returning.” Russia, long known for its extensive propaganda campaigns, is using its intelligence operatives to help spin the story. A US official said: “Recent information also indicates that Russian officials proposed adjusting Russia’s information operations against Ukraine to emphasize the narrative that Ukrainian leaders had been installed by the West, harbored a hatred for the ‘Russian world,’ and were acting against the interests of the Ukrainian people.”

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In a recent meeting with Ukrainian officials, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned officials in Kiev not to give Russia any pretext for invasion. Yet twenty-four hours after warning Putin that the US would impose sanctions on Russia if it invaded the Ukraine, Biden responded to a reporter’s question about possible US troop involvement by stating “That is not on the table.” Biden’s clearly-worded statement is interpreted by some political analysts in Moscow as the US President, in effect, giving Putin a “go ahead” signal by revealing the US military will step aside if Russian troops invade its neighbor. In an earlier statement Karine Jean-Pierre, the deputy White House press secretary, appeared to contradict Biden when she said “… we are preparing for all contingencies, as we have been doing for weeks now, including preparing specific robust responses to Russian escalation should they be required.” Putin must have heard the mixed signals coming out of Washington and taken it as carte blanche for his plan.

While Putin may only be attempting a diplomatic maneuver against admission of the Ukraine into NATO, without the use of a military force, it is an unlikely scenario. Under NATO rules a nation-state must be free of foreign forces controlling any part of its territory before it can qualify to become a Member State. Neither Ukraine nor Georgia qualify for full membership in NATO due to the occupation of their territory by Russian military forces. The more likely scenario is that Putin is seizing an opportunity given the recent US debacle during its withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan. Putin may assume it is on the minds of leaders in Washington and that none have the political willpower to get involved in another costly conflict that could escalate quickly to war throughout the European continent.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Photo: File photo of Russian tank (Russian Defence Ministry)

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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