Russia’s Hypersonic Threat

A Russian hypersonic missile traveling more than five times the speed of sound, capable of maneuvering a change in direction mid-air, and harder to intercept than traditional missiles operated by the United States… a recipe for disaster? It certainly would appear so. Last Thursday Russia announced an additional, successful test of its Zircon hypersonic missile. It comes only weeks after the Chinese successfully flew a similar missile, capable of traversing the South Pole, around the planet before landing it within an acceptable target range. The United States is at greater risk from Russia today, according to military analysts in Washington, as Putin is continuing to develop and test advanced offensive weapons systems capable of threatening our country’s national security.

It isn’t news to the Pentagon that the Russian military has been testing the Zircon missile. Tests have been ongoing for several years. What is newly disconcerting, is that Russian military efforts appear increasingly coordinated with those of China. The latest Russian missile test was launched in its Arctic waters off the Admiral Gorshkov, a naval warship. According to reports in the Russian media this week, it was a direct hit. Previous hypersonic missile tests included submarine launched versions of the Zircon missile. President Putin announced in his 2018 state of the nation speech that the Zircon missile was accurate at a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles). Today the “Zircon looks set to join Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles that were put into service in 2019 and the air-launched Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles in Russia’s arsenal,” according to the publication Space Wars. Once operations it will raise the risk level to American national security.

According to the Hoover Institute’s Kathrin Hille and Demetri Sevastopulo, both Russia and China are working together to gain an edge in next-generation hypersonic technology. What some military analysts in Washington are uncertain of is the level and extent of collaboration between the two communist countries. Russia still sells China advanced missile systems and technologies; however, China is quickly developing its own indigenous programs. Estimates now are that within this decade China will no longer need Russian military technology.

Indications are that Moscow is deepening its military relationship with Beijing. But all is not as it appears on the surface. Putin, like Russian leaders before him, remains wary of being drawn into a two-front war. Putin works with Xi Jinping and the CCP today but that is no guarantee of a long-term commitment should Beijing decide that Putin is no longer a valuable ally. Military leaders in Washington suggest this may make portend a more dangerous period of Russian aggression along its borderlands in the coming years if Russo-Chinese cooperation breaks down.

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The military posture of Russian troops along NATO’s eastern front complicates the picture. Unlike earlier periods Russian military technology today is not only a greater threat to Western Europe but to all 50 US states. A Submarine launched Zircon could likely hit every major city in the United States. Analysts acknowledge our military would have a challenging time detecting and stopping such launches. Russia also is well into a major upgrade of its nuclear forces. Adding to this threat are credible intelligence reports that Putin is pursuing a policy of using space for combat operations and deploying strike systems in it to achieve military superiority.

Each time Russia adds advanced weapons to its arsenal, it increases the potential of a mistake, a new border conflict, or potentially a great powers nuclear conflagration. When the Zircon goes into service it will dramatically increase the risk to other nation-states around the world. The US needs leadership in Washington that can not only respond to this increased threat it also needs to fund its response. To date, the annual NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act) has hundreds of amendments with none capable of addressing the Russian challenges presented by Putin’s improved military posture.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

Photo: The frigate Admiral Gorshkov successfully fired a hypersonic missile Zircon at a ground target (Russian Defence Ministry photo)

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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