Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

From the U.S. State Department

Armenian and Azerbaijani Ceasefire Holds

This week, the United States and the international community recognize the one-year anniversary of the ceasefire declaration that ended 44 days of intense fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in the South Caucasus. We extend our deepest condolences to the families of those killed and injured during the hostilities last year. We call for the return of all remaining detainees, a full accounting of missing persons, the voluntary return of displaced persons to their homes, comprehensive humanitarian de-mining of conflict-affected areas, and access by international humanitarian organizations to those in need. We also call for an investigation into alleged human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law.

The United States remains committed to promoting a secure, stable, prosperous, and peaceful future for the South Caucasus region. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs Erika Olson is currently in the region to discuss bilateral issues with all three countries and to explore opportunities for regional cooperation. We urge Armenia and Azerbaijan to continue and intensify their engagement including under the auspices of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs to find comprehensive solutions to all outstanding issues related to or resulting from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Cyberspace Trust and Security

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The United States supports the Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyberspace, consistent with our position that all actors must do their part to promote an “open, secure, stable, accessible, and peaceful cyberspace.” Our decision to support the Paris Call reflects the Administration’s pledge to renew America’s engagement with the international community, including on cyber issues. We are committed to working alongside our allies and partners to uphold established global norms in cyberspace and ensure accountability for states that engage in destructive, disruptive, or destabilizing cyber activity.

We welcome the Government of France’s leadership in bringing together a multi-stakeholder group of supporters – including states as well as private sector and civil society actors – around a shared commitment to safeguard the benefits the Internet provides all people. As we face the global challenges of the 21st century – from COVID-19 to climate change – it is imperative we all do our part. It is uniquely the role and responsibility of states to develop the norms, rules, and principles of responsible state behavior that promote security and stability in cyberspace. The United States views the broadly framed language of the Paris Call in this light and interprets it consistent with our existing domestic and international obligations and commitments, including with respect to privacy and freedom of expression.

For more than a decade, the United States, alongside France and many others, has championed a global framework of responsible state behavior in cyberspace, underpinned by the applicability of international law, adherence to voluntary peacetime norms of state behavior in cyberspace, and the development and implementation of practical confidence building measures. This framework has repeatedly been endorsed by UN member states, most recently in the March 10, 2021, report of the Open-Ended Working Group in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security and the July 14, 2021, report of the Group of Governmental Experts on Advancing Responsible State Behavior in Cyberspace in the Context of International Security. The United States’ support of the Paris Call does not mark a change in U.S. Government policy but rather reflects our continuing commitment to act responsibly and partner with likeminded states to promote stability in cyberspace.

We also note the commitments of private sector actors who support the Paris Call to contribute to the future of a stable cyberspace by adhering to key principles relevant to their own unique roles. Among other important efforts, the United States urges companies to take seriously their commitment to strengthen the security of digital processes, products and services, throughout their life cycle and supply chain. We applaud the language in the Paris Call reaffirming the same rights that people have offline must also be protected online.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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