Do bad events come in threes? President Biden this week may think this is the case. Just when things appear to be settling down a bit after his Afghanistan debacle, the Administration suffered a major Democratic loss in the Virginia gubernatorial race this week that both the President and Vice President suggested would foretell the future direction of the mid-term and 2024 presidential races. The third event came only one day after the election when the Department of Defense (DOD) made a major admission about the increased global threat level from China. DOD estimates that it will, in less than six years, possess at least 700 nuclear weapons and have approximately 1,000 operational by 2030. The DOD report released this week in “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China,” notes that the 700 number is China’s public released total. Military analysts point out that China may be touting this figure to embolden its position on Taiwan. Tara Copp, a senior Pentagon reporter for Defense One, was briefed on the issue by an anonymous senior Pentagon official who said: “If they [China] realize those goals for 2027, that would provide them with more credible military operations in a Taiwan contingency.”
China’s fast-paced development of numerous launch pad sites in central and western China over the last 12 months indicates that President Xi Jinping may be making serious preparations to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, in the coming years. Or, China’s nuclear weapons could be a negotiating tool to force the issue of reunification on Beijing’s terms. Xi’s ultimate intention remains unknown, however, the increase in China’s nuclear arsenal and advanced capabilities represent an increased threat not only to Taiwan but to all democratic nations. Last week China confirmed it tested a new hypersonic ballistic missile that can travel around the globe and land on target. With 355 ships and submarines, China has the world’s largest Navy and is rapidly upgrading its quality and naval preparedness. It recently held the first Sino-Russian join exercises in the western Pacific. According to Defense One, many of the ships have long-range precision strike capabilities. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) stands at just under 1 million trained and in uniform. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is now the third-largest in the world with a total of 2,800 planes, of which 2,250 are combat aircraft. In the mid-1980’ s China’s air force typically had 50% of its small fleet of planes grounded at any one time for lack of spare parts or pilots. That is no longer the case today. According to National Security Agency Director Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum: “This is not the Soviet Union upon which I grew up in; this is a nation-state that has a different risk calculus.”
Copp noted that a senior DOD official said China “could conduct air and missile strikes and cyber attacks. They could try to, you know, seize, you know, other islands that are not necessarily all of Taiwan, right, but maybe some of the offshore islands. So they’ve got, you know, a range of different things that they are wanting to be prepared to do.” As China develops its ability to conduct a full amphibious landing of Taiwan, or potentially other areas, the world must come to terms with a belligerent communist nation intent on making its presence felt in the world where the global geostrategic balance has dramatically shifted in a short period of time. In a rather disconcerting admission, General Mark Milley who is Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, said he did not think China would move to take Taiwan “within the next six months to two years.” Copp wrote that having said that Milley also noted “the Chinese are clearly and unambiguously building the capability to provide those options to the national leadership.”
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DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.
Photo: China Space Agency rocket on route to Beijing’s space station (CNAS photo)