Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

AFGHANISTAN

The Biden Administration has been roundly criticized by both major political parties in the US and by world leaders overseas for its failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. This week Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the media that, despite earlier claims to the opposite, the US is continuing to facilitate the departure of Americans from the country. In a written statement on Friday Blinken said “…today we facilitated the departure from Afghanistan of 21 U.S. citizens and 11 Lawful Permanent Residents (LPRs). via an overland route.” A Qatar Airways charter flight also departed Kabul with 19 U.S. citizens aboard. When asked to comment on reports of beatings and lashings of civilians by the Taliban, State Department Spokesman New Price responded “…as I said before, we are not going to make sweeping categorical judgments just yet.” He left open the question of “when” the Biden Administration intended to take a stand.

RUSSIA

Russia announced the recent completion of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. When asked by a reporter if the US still intended to prevent the pipeline from becoming operational, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said “We’ve said it before and we’ll continue to say it again: We believe that this is a bad deal, and we continue to oppose this pipeline as a Russian geopolitical project that’s a bad deal for Europe and, of course, that undercuts the energy security for a major part of the Euro-Atlantic community.” Price was unable to explain how the US would proceed to shut it down before it becomes operational.

When a reporter this week asked if the US is getting closer to go back to Vienna to resume talks, Price said that after Special Envoy Malley’s trip to Russia “The special envoy did tweet. He said his conversations in Moscow were good, they were productive.” It now appears tweets form the substance of diplomatic communications.

ISRAEL

When Israeli Prime Minister Mr. Naftali Bennett met with settlers he told them that he will not stop or freeze West Bank settlement construction. When asked about the US position on his statement State Department Spokesperson Jalina Porter said, “We’ve said it before and we’ll – it’s worth repeating that we believe it’s critical for Israel and the Palestinian Authority to refrain from any unilateral steps that would exacerbate tensions and also undercut efforts to advance a negotiated two-state solution.”

“We have said it again and will continue to say it” appears to be the new mantra at the State Department.

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ETHIOPIA

Ned Price, Department Spokesperson, said the United States remains gravely concerned by ongoing conflict in multiple regions of Ethiopia. He added that “reports of continued human rights abuses and atrocities by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the Eritrean Defense Forces, Amhara regional and irregular forces, the TPLF and other armed groups, including the reported attack on civilians in one village in Amhara region this week, are deeply disturbing.” The Department condemned the abuses against civilians and called on all parties to the conflict to “respect human rights and comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law.”

IRAN

When Price was asked about the status of the JCPOA, he pointed out that it is not up to the United States to characterize Iran’s timetable statements. He added “ It is up to us to say that we would like to see those negotiations restart as soon as possible so we can test the proposition as to whether the – a mutual return to compliance is still within the realm of possibility.” Top date the Iranians have not told the United States if, or when, they intend to restart the nuclear safeguard talks.

NORTH KOREA

There has been extensive reporting recently from independent analysts about denuclearization at Yongbyon’s reactors. When asked about the reports, Price said that the US is aware of them and that the US believes “the best way to make progress towards that is with dialogue with the DPRK so that we can address the issues raised in this report but also the fuller set of issues related to denuclearization.” He added that the US is prepared to engage in diplomacy.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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