Four years ago, the US Army told Congress that to address emerging threats to our national security it needed to evolve new advanced methods and weaponry that could outpace the speed of any persistent great power competitor. The Pentagon also announced it needed the ability to operate in a multi-domain [air, land, water, space, cyber, information] environment. The Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) concept, the Army decided in 2017, would require complete integration across the joint forces and entail new operational concepts, technologies, weapons, and units to win a war with China. Pentagon estimates are that China will be on par with the US militarily by 2040 – the latest. It appears that China will meet its projected deadline sooner than expected. Next month the US Army is activating its first overseas MDTF in Europe. Time may not be on the United States’ side when it comes to a potential war in the Indo-Pacific region if Beijing continues to intensify its efforts.
A US Army White paper, released in an unclassified version earlier this spring reported that “By 2040, China and Russia will have weaponized all instruments of national power to undermine the collective wills of the United States, Allies and partners, while simultaneously cultivating their own security partnerships. This will lead to an unstructured international environment where the line between conflict and peace is blurred,” the white paper added. “As China and Russia continue to modernize their militaries, the Joint Force will find it increasingly difficult to deter their illicit and aggressive actions.”
Beijing is not sitting idle while Washington develops new MDTF’s or other military advances to counter China’s long-term, global ambitions. Satellite imagery recently released indicates that China is building not one, but a network of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo fields in the western regions of the country. Each site is located beyond the reach of conventional missile capabilities. A foreign response would encompass a high cost to the US or any nation countering Chinese aggression. The first site discovered in February indicates there are well over 100 silos under construction near Yuman, in Gansu province. Each individual silo is spaced less than two miles apart from the next. The dome-covered field is a large and impressive site with support facilities built around it.
The more recent discovery by the American Federation of Scientists (FAS) identified a second location near Hami city in northwest China, which is about 240 miles from the Yuman ICBM location. Estimates are that silo work there began in March. “Since then, however, the telltale dome-like shelters, that analysts have identified as being associated with the building of silos, have appeared over at least 14 individual sites at Hami, with preparations noted at 19 others,” according to Thomas Newdick, writing in The Drive. In total over 250 new silos have been identified as completed or under construction. China also operates 100 road mobile ICBM launch units. The FAS estimates that China has 350 nuclear warheads. The US military estimates that the actual number of operational units is closer to the low 200’s. If China fills the new silos with ICBM’s, the potential is for a total over 515 operational warheads under the command of the Chinese government. It could represent the greatest threat ever faced by the United States.
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DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.
Photo: China Defence Ministry