Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

US PASSPORTS

As of this week, a State Department press official Jalina Porter announced, American citizens will be able to choose if they feel are a man or woman and self-designate their gender on their passport. A State Department official said this “announcement is another example of our leadership.” Secretary of State Tony Blinken confirmed the US “will no longer require medical certification if an applicant’s self-selected gender does not match the gender on their other citizenship or identity documents.”

AFGHANISTAN

In response to a question by a reporter this week, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said that the US is not diminishing its relationship, or abandoning Afghanistan, because Washington will have a diplomatic relationship with the country. “Obviously, that relationship will look different with the military withdrawal underway,” he added. Last month, The Diplomat, reported that “The fear of potential aggravation of the political situation and worsening of security in Afghanistan, as well as the expansion of instability, is a matter of great regional concern. The power struggle between interest groups and political factions inside the Afghan government, as well the Taliban’s growing power, has the definite potential to change the U.S.-secured power equilibrium in Afghanistan.” At this point no one is certain what will occur as external forces seek to fill the power vacuum when US forces are fully withdrawn by September 11. It may lead to further instability in the region. Currently it is estimated that over 70,000 Afghan citizens who aided the US during the war, along with their families, may be eligible to come to the US due to ongoing security concerns for their safety. The State Department said about 9,000 are in the initial stage of the process pending applicant action.

CHINA

July 1 marked the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. President Xi Jinping gave a speech in which he said that anyone “who dares oppose China will have their heads bashed bloody against the great wall….” When asked if the US had any pushback, Price said: “… we’re aware that the Chinese Communist Party commemorated its 100th anniversary today. We’re aware of President Xi’s remarks. We’ve taken note on them, but we’re not going to comment on the specifics. I think this administration, over the course of several months, has been very clear about our impressions of the CCP in general, but I don’t have a specific response for you on President Xi’s remarks today. To date, the Biden Administration appears to lack follow through on actions.

In response to reports that China is building over 100 new missile silos, Price said: “It reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures to reduce nuclear risks.” Price added: “We encourage Beijing to engage with us on practical measures to reduce the risks of destabilizing arms races, potential – potentially destabilizing tensions. Given that earlier this year China refused senior US military officials’ requests to meet, this statement most likely will not change the level of danger posed by the silos or force China into talks.

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NORTH KOREA

Considering the challenging global issues faced by the United States and western democracies, it was interesting that in a shortened press briefing the State Department Spokesman took time to answer questions about the impact of North Korean President Kim Jong-un’s diet.

HONG KONG

The Deputy Assistant of State for East Asian Affairs, Jonathan Fritz, when asked about the situation in Hong Kong said that: “We hope Beijing will realize the truth: Hong Kongers aren’t the problem….” He pointed out that if Beijing doesn’t realize this the residents of Hong Kong will be “forced to flee.” Fritz added that he was “inspired to see the resilience of Hong Kongers in their pursuit of what the PRC promised them.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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