Russia Pollutes Arctic – USA Gov Policy

Vladimir Putin is playing Russian roulette with the Arctic’s fragile ecosystem while the world is focused on other challenges. Russia assumed the rotational leadership of the Arctic Council on May 17 this year, announcing that climate change was at the top of its lists of concerns. It is, however, little more than rhetoric. Only six days prior, the Russian Arctic endured yet another ecological disaster involving an oil spill. This one occurred in the northern Komi Republic. According to a report by the Jamestown Foundation, parts of the Kolva River became heavily contaminated with oil from the Osha hydrocarbon deposit. “Right from the start, the authorities’ response to the ecological disaster was marked by a lack of transparency and, apparently, lies from local officials,” according to Jamestown’s Paul Goble.

This is not the only instance in which Russian negligence cause an ecological disaster. The Ob River in the Yamal peninsula, in April was contaminated in several places with more than 56 tons of spilled oil products as well as pollution from of an earlier massive wildfire. On May 17, 3,000 gallons of oil were spilled in the Russian Arctic town of Dudinka. Arctic sea animals near the Kamchatka peninsula in the east have been killed and burned by chemicals recently from a large Russian, military polygon that stockpiles up to 300 tons of toxic materials. The ecological damage incurred by the Russian Arctic and Far East is not episodic: it is of a long-running systemic nature, with roots in the pre-1991 period, according to Goble.

Russia is a threat to the region and now, with its assumption as head of the Arctic Council, additional environmental and security issues are expected to arise. An October 2020 report from terra-ecology.ru said that in 2019, out of 17,000 accidents in Russia’s fuel-energy sector, more than 10,500 involved oil facilities, the majority of which are located in the High North. On average that equates to an ecological accident every thirty minutes. Russia’s northern strategy is to convince the other Arctic states to sign onto its vision for a “green” agenda for the Arctic Council. It is not a coincidence that Moscow’s version accepts virtually all of Russia’s expansive geographic and security claims in the high north.

Putin is signaling that he plans an activist role while Russia leads the Council during the next three years, according to political analysts in Washington. He intends to use this window of opportunity to coerce the Council to promote Russian interests, including the exploitation of mineral-rich Greenland. Should the island be willing to lean toward Russia it would be a major geopolitical victory over the United States and a loss for NATO. Russia would gain access to valuable minerals and solidify it military presence in the region. Just a decade ago, Russian commentator Artur Indzhiyev, wrote that “When the population of Greenland starts pursuing a more independent policy, it will rid itself of American military bases… What we need to do is to help them in their struggle for independence… Russia should understand one thing—the fight against NATO’s expansion should not be fought on our borders but on the territory of the Alliance.” Today we are hearing from political analysts in Moscow who are talking openly about the recent elections in Greenland, in which its voters decided to elect politicians who are more interested in getting involved in discussions concerning independence from Denmark.

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The Russian delegation to the Arctic council is welcoming Greenland’s new found independent voice and hoping to move it into the Russian column. Goble says that this does three things for Moscow. First, by reducing Danish influence on the island it opens new avenues for Russian mineral resource development. Second, it raises the question about the continuing local presence of US-NATO bases, even though Nuuk so far has denied discussing any change in their status. Finally, it could provide Putin with another ally in the Arctic when it comes to its claims to large portions of the seabed. To counter Russia’s moves, Washington opened a consulate in Greenland in April and is offering English-language lessons through a $12 million USAID development program. Is it too little, too late? Russia’s undersea shelf provides the basis for claims to 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic surface. It appears Greenland is set to become another location for great power rivalry as Russia, the US and China all vie for influence in the strategic and mineral recourse-rich region.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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