Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

HONG KONG

In the last six months the world has witnessed freedom after freedom disappear in Hong Kong like pages of a novel unfolding to reveal more of a sinister plot. In the latest chapter this week Beijing pushed through yet another restrictive law that expelled four pro-democracy representatives. In reaction to the Tuesday move the entire opposition quit the Hong Kong Legislative Council. This marks the point when Hong Kong enters a puppet state status with Beijing. Simultaneously, the CCP is forcing education in Hong Kong to include pro-Beijing propaganda as it is no longer illegal to do so and there is no one to stop it.

JAPAN

This week in Washington the US and Japan reaffirmed that Host Nation Support has played an important role for ensuring the smooth and effective activities of the US Forces in Japan. The statement said the relationship remains “central to the US-Japan Alliance.” For more than 60 years the US-Japan Alliance has served as the cornerstone of peace, stability, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. With the rise of an aggressive China the Alliance is growing in importance for both nations. The statement comes a week after the conclusion of the 5^th Plenum Session of the Chinese Communist Party meeting which reaffirmed its intention for new and aggressive behaviors in the coming years. The State Department said the ongoing Agreement with Japan will strengthen and sustain the bilateral work to address shared regional and global objectives.

BRAZIL

The US and Brazil announced new priorities for the US-Brazil Environmental Framework Dialogue to enhance collaboration on urban environmental issues. This Dialogue also will build on a Declaration of Intent expected to be signed this month by Minister Salles and Chief of the US Forest Service Vicki Christiansen to renew and strengthen cooperation on forest, protected area, and fire management. The partnership aims to protect, enhance, and restore forests and biodiversity while improving the prosperity and well-being of indigenous peoples and local communities in the Amazon, including vulnerable populations, through, among other activities, fire prevention and management, aligned with the goals of the One Trillion Trees initiative, sound mining, and water and air resource conservation.

EUROPE

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The annual US – EU Strategic Dialogue on Humanitarian Affairs took place this week. The United States and the European Union are the two top donors to humanitarian crisis response globally and cooperate closely to alleviate the suffering of vulnerable people affected by emergency situations around the world. The meeting serves as opportunity to explore common approaches to address key global humanitarian emergencies, including the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on existing and protracted crises, coordination on response to humanitarian situations around the world, and common approaches to resolving operational challenges in crisis response.

CHINA

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo released a statement this week calling on Hong Kong-based officials to stop dismantling the “promised autonomy and freedoms of Hong Kong through politically motivated arrests.” The State Department designated four additional PRC and Hong Kong officials in connection with implementing the PRC-imposed National Security Law and threatening the peace, security, and autonomy of Hong Kong, pursuant to Executive Order 13936. The statement said the four have been “leaders or officials of entities, including any government entity, that have engaged in, or whose members have engaged in, developing, adopting, or implementing the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (NSL).”

The designation bars these individuals from travelling to the United States along with the blocking of their assets within the jurisdiction of the United States or in the possession or control of US persons. The US holds key figures accountable for their part in actively eviscerating the freedoms of the people of Hong Kong and undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy in an attempt to pressure the regime in Beijing to comply with the West’s international norms on human rights. To date, Beijing has not responded positively to any attempts to secure freedom for the people of Hong Kong.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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