Future of Defense Part 2 – USA Gov Policy

Leveraging advanced technology is vital for national defense. A report from the House Armed Services Committee “Future of Defense Task Force” recently outlined the challenge. The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its outline of the important challenge.

Emerging Threats

A complex and evolving array of national security threats are facing the United States, as its political, economic, and military rivals are increasing in stature and capability. Rising powers, notably China and Russia, threaten to cause tectonic shifts in geopolitical plates where, much like the Cold War, the binary notions of war and peace are becoming antiquated. Future conflicts will be increasingly waged in the gray zone, the nebulous battlespace below open combat, where tactics such as economic coercion, cyber espionage, disinformation, and unattributed military forces are employed. Adding to the complexity is the recognition that the nature of warfare is evolving with the weaponization of emerging technologies that changes the way wars are fought and won. The rapidly expanding domains of space and cyberspace are the new frontiers for conflict and will be the battlefield of choice for the opening salvo of any aggressor…

A provocative Iran is lashing out in the Middle East, while North Korea continues its march toward full nuclearization. Terrorism, waged by violent extremist organizations, continues to threaten vital U.S. partners and interests in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, while transnational criminal organizations wreak havoc on vulnerable populations. Divisive politics and a disparate electorate in the homeland further threaten U.S. national security.

The Weaponization of Emerging Technology

A sophisticated array of emerging technologies and new weaponry, in various stages of development, will fundamentally change the nature of conflict along with the very battlespace where it will be fought.

The stakes are high. Whoever achieves superiority in this technological race will enjoy significant military and economic advantage for decades—and possibly into the next century.

Achieving this supremacy will require a whole-of-nation approach, where the distinct advantages of both the private and public sector are harnessed and synthesized. Whereas many of these technologies offer tremendous opportunity for commercial and social transformation, they are also rife with the potential for nefarious use and may exponentially exacerbate threat streams for the U.S. and its global partners.

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Advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum information science, space and cyber and electronic warfare, among others, are making traditional battlefields and boundaries increasingly irrelevant. To remain competitive, the U.S. must recognize this shift and prioritize the development of emerging technologies while also increasing its ability to defend against them.

Technology is pulling warfare into a post-conventional era, wherein the first hours of conflict will no longer be saturated with aerial bombings and sea landings followed by a ground assault. Initial campaigns will be fought with remote and autonomous systems in the realms of space and cyberspace, where an early attack will take out satellite and communication systems and dismantle the global positioning system (GPS).

Opening salvos could inflict devastating harm on civilians through electronic attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids, along with financial and healthcare systems and networks. Also, while most of the technologies will require substantial funding and development by state actors, others such as cyber and electronic warfare may allow less formidable foes to gain the operational upper hand with limited investment. Therefore, as adversaries build and recapitalize conventional and strategic weapons, a parallel effort will be underway to develop systems that adhere to the David and Goliath paradigm: instead of taking on the giant pound for pound, build nimble and inexpensive sling shots. It is essential for the U.S. to increase its ability to defend against adversaries who will seek early domination in a conflict by disrupting and degrading both civilian and military systems and networks.

The disruption of command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) has become a bedrock operational concept of 21st century warfare. The ability of the U.S. to leverage offensive and defensive capabilities in this realm is paramount to maintaining the global balance of power as well as strategic and conventional military superiority.

The Report Concludes Tomorrow

Illustration: House Armed Services Committee

Quick Analysis

U.S. Nuclear Modernization is Urgent Priority

The undersecretary of the U.S. Air Force, Melissa Dalton, warns that “With two nuclear-armed peer competitors — Russia and China — and with both advancing their nuclear capability, the U.S. now, more than ever, must move at full speed to modernize its nuclear deterrence capability. That effort is not just for U.S. national security, but as well for partners who depend on the U.S.” She stressed that the threat from aggressive, unfriendly nuclear armed nations is unprecedented. “We face for the first time in our nation’s history, two strategic competitors that are nuclear states with large and growing nuclear arsenals. When we look at the [People’s Republic of China] and its breathtaking modernization over the last two decades, we see today they have over 500 operational nuclear warheads, far exceeding prior projections.” Some suspect that China’s nuclear force may even be larger than commonly believed. According to recent Pentagon report, “Over the next decade, the PRC will continue to rapidly modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces. Compared to the PLA’s nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity. The PRC is expanding the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms while investing in and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support further expansion of its nuclear forces. The Undersecretary noted that in coming years, the U.S. expects China’s warheads to exceed 1,000. Russia, the worlds preeminent nuclear power, also remains a challenge. “We see Russia brandishing its nuclear weapons in the context of the Ukraine conflict and also possessing novel nuclear capabilities that are designed to challenge our escalation calculus.The stakes are incredibly high.” Dalton noted that During the Cold War, the U.S. maintained top-notch nuclear deterrence, and the domestic defense industry stood ready to provide whatever was needed. But since the fall of the Soviet Union, and with the U.S. focused on other parts of the world for the past 20-plus years, the U.S. must now up its game. “We mortgaged our nuclear modernization for 30 years. We had the post-Cold War peace dividend… But the fact is, the bills are now way past due, and in that time, our competitors went to school on us, and they caught up.” With U.S. defense underpinned by its nuclear deterrent, modernization of that capability is a top priority for the Department of Defense, she stressed. Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said that while two-thirds of the nuclear triad, the ground systems and the aircraft-based systems belong to the Air Force — the submarine systems belong to the Navy — modernization is not just an Air Force effort or even just a Navy effort. “It is imperative that we understand that it’s not a Department [of Defense] imperative that we maintain the nuclear security and nuclear triad,” he said. “It is a national imperative. It’s national policy that the foundation of what we hold dear, the framework of that is nuclear deterrence. And to add to that, and I’ve seen this in the last 19 months of being in command, our allies and partners are counting on us more than ever.” Last year, Senator John Kennedy (R-La) warned that “Today, we no longer face just one threat. Russia still maintains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, but China’s nuclear stockpile is growing rapidly. North Korea continues to threaten our allies with its collection of nuclear weapons. And, thanks to the disastrous Iran nuclear deal, Iran is marching ever closer to developing nuclear weapons of its own. The United States must now counter nuclear superpowers in both China and Russia while also deterring the itchy trigger fingers of unstable dictators like Kim Jong Un and the Ayatollah in Iran. We should be innovating and preparing our nuclear arsenal for this new global dynamic, but instead, our nuclear stockpile remains stuck in the Cold War. Simply put: America’s nuclear stockpile is old and shrinking. And while modernizing our nuclear arsenal should be a top priority, our effort to restart nuclear weapon production has been riddled with delays and poor planning. And we don’t have time to waste.” Photo: A Titan II missile on display inside the missile silo at Missile Site 8 in Green Valley, Ariz. (DoD)