Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

SLOVENIA

Secretary of State Michael Pompeo during his visit to Ljubljana was asked about the realignment of troops in Europe and if any would be headed to Slovenia. He said the military relationship with the US is “very powerful” and that Washington is committed to ensuring Europe is secure. It is not just about tanks, he added, but cyber threats, space, aircraft, counter terrorism, and other elements to create the right defensive posture.

CHINA

In response to Chinese aggression, the US this week declared China’s Confucius Institute US Center a foreign mission due to its propaganda activities. The change in designation means that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) funded organization will have to provide the US Government with more information on its activities, source of funding, and personnel.

The US-China relationship is not one of the US against China, according to Pompeo, but one of a conflict between freedom and tyranny. “The Chinese do not intend well for Western ideas. They have a different model, “ he noted. Things have become “more dangerous” and insecure for the West. “The Chinese are engaged in a global fundamental commercial espionage effort the likes of which the world has never seen, and it’s something the United States simply doesn’t do. We don’t do commercial espionage. We don’t come steal secrets for the purpose of making our companies more productive and more powerful,” he said.

CUBA

The State Department announced that Secretary Pompeo has requested that the Department of Transportation suspend private charter flights to all Cuban airports, including Havana. It said this action will suspend all charter flights between the United States and Cuba over which the Department of Transportation exercises jurisdiction, except for authorized public charter flights to and from Havana and other authorized private charter flights for emergency medical purposes, search and rescue, and other travel deemed in the interest of the United States.

The Trump Administration plans to continue to target and cut the revenue the Cuban government earns from landing fees, stays in regime-owned hotels, and other travel-related income because the Cuban military and intelligence services own and operate the great majority of hotels and tourism infrastructure in Cuba. This will deny economic resources to the Castro regime and inhibit its capacity to carry out abuses, according to Pompeo’s statement.

“Our message to the Castro regime has been clear: The United States will continue to stand up for the Cuban people and against the regime’s abuses and its interference in Venezuela to prop up Maduro’s illegitimate hold on power,” it said.

The Castro regime has not changed its repressive and undemocratic behavior and continues to imprison journalists and democracy activists, to oversee horrific physical abuse, to perpetuate the de facto dictatorship in Venezuela, to repress freedom of religion or belief, and to silence and intimidate those who speak truth about the reality in Cuba, according to the Department.

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ISRAEL / UAE

In an August 13, 2020 statement released by the Secretary of State, he called the normalization of relations between Israel and the UAE “an historic day and a significant step forward for peace in the Middle East.” He said that after vigorous diplomatic outreach, President Trump, along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed, signed an agreement to “fully normalize relations.”

“This is a remarkable achievement for two of the world’s most forward leaning, technologically advanced states, and reflects their shared regional vision of an economically integrated region,” according to Pompeo. This may be a first step in ending 72 years of hostilities in the region.

TAIWAN

US HHS Secretary Alex Azar traveled to Taiwan to talk about the Covid-19 pandemic in the highest-level official visit since the US normalized relations with the PRC. The Chinese reacted as expected, falsely calling the visit a betrayal of a US promise not to deal with Taiwan.

Secretary Pompeo, when asked about last week’s visit said: “Secretary Azar is there for the singular purpose of working with the Taiwanese Government on something that’s important to everyone in the world – making sure we come to understand this Wuhan virus, to make sure we understand the threat, to make sure we know how Taiwan so successfully dealt with this issue in their own country. We want to share with them what we’ve learned, what we know too. We know an awful lot about this. That was the purpose of his visit.”

He added he was surprised China would feel so threatened by someone on a “noble humanitarian” trip with the purpose of reducing risk to citizens all across the world, including Chinese citizens. In a swipe at the communist giant, Pompeo quipped that he thinks it “tells you a lot about the weakness of the Chinese Communist Party and the fact that it could feel threatened from such a visit.”

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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