Star Lore or Star Wars? – USA Gov Policy

Since the beginning of recorded history, the Chinese people have turned to the skies to understand the attributes of their government, their society, and military organizations, according to astronomy professor Jeanne Bishop. From the Tang Dynasty through World War II Chinese swords, viewed as symbols of divine justice, typically were embedded with the powerful Beidou constellation. In the West we know it by the name Big Dipper. Chinese mysticism and religion believed Beidou to be the most potent of constellations and the one that determines our fate. Daoist deities surrounding it, the smaller stars, were linked to Beidou and possessed the power of invisibility to hide their true form. In the West today we refer to this as possessing stealth technology.

On June 23, 2020, at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan province, China sent its 30^th and final satellite into space to complete the 3^rd generation Beidou Satellite Network. Today China is the only other nation that can compete on par with the United States’ GPS system. The Beidou-3 Navigation System (BDS) has world-wide GPS-like coverage. It is designed primarily for military purposes, according to People’s Daily newspaper. Is Beidou-3 simply part of the country’s star lore or does it portend future star wars?

A July research report published by the Chinese Academy of Engineering said that integration of BDS with the country’s 5G network will likely be one the “key technological advances” of the next ten years. Long ago China viewed important constellations as simple reminders of a particular office, task, or place. Its bureaucratically organized society, according to professor Bishop, was thought to be “governed by a bureaucratically organized sky.” The astronomers and astrologers determined what the Sky Emperor and his sky bureaucracy wanted the Chinese Emperor and his subjects to do. Often President Xi Jinping is referred to as a modern emperor. Is BDS a cleverly-named, authoritarian tool capable of repression domestically and military challenges overseas?

Beidou-3 provides accurate positioning to within 15 feet in the Asia-Pacific region and 30 feet elsewhere around the globe, with a 20-nanosecond timing accuracy. More than enough to pinpoint any military target. As with the rest of China’s civilian-military fusion program, Beidou-3 is run by the PLA, who hold the senior-most program management positions. Five years ago, China and Russia inked a series of agreements on the sharing of navigation data. Russia offered its GLONASS system and China provided its Beidou data. Russia can operate almost on par with the United States using the GLOSNASS-Beidou high-precision, network corridor. While not a true merger, the two countries already are sharing critical information and working to establish joint monitoring stations and testing to service China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI).

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International cooperation does not end with the Sino-Russian agreements. China is promoting Beidou-3 in the Middle East. In April 2018 the China-Arab States BDS/GNSS Center (Global Navigation Satellite System) became operational in Tunisia. The media in Beijing reported this first overseas operation but few news outlets outside the country took notice. The Tunisian project, according to PRC state media is a “window to showcase BDS…”

Last year Wang Zhaoyao, a “civilian” manager of the Beidou program spoke at the 2nd China-Arab State Beidou Navigation Satellite System Cooperation Forum in Tunisia. Interestingly, Wang also holds the PLA rank of major general and yet another hat as deputy director of the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department. The CSNSC, of Zhongguo Weixing Daohang Xiton Weiyuanhui, is the CCP Central Military Commission’s public relations arm covering Beidou. It is hard, if not impossible, to distinguish between the military and civilian aspects of Beidou-3 and China’s future intentions for it. Like the Daoist deities surrounding Beidou, much of what is happening is deliberately made invisible to those in the West. Kudos to those who named the program!

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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