Foreign Policy Update – USA Gov Policy

CHINA

The COVID-19 virus story continues change on a daily basis. In recent weeks the Chinese propaganda machine has ramped up attacks on the United States and the US military in an attempt to defuse the anger toward China and the CCP leadership. Washington continues to get detailed information from the Chinese on the origins of the virus, but Beijing ahs refused to provide the needed data. In an interview this week, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said: “The Chinese Communist Party has not been forthcoming with the data set. We know that it originated in Wuhan, China. That much is certain. What we don’t know yet is precisely where it came from and how it began to spread. We can’t identify patient zero. We’ve seen evidence that it came from the lab. That may not be the case. The people who can answer that question are the Chinese Communist Party.” The Secretary pointed out that Washington has an obligation to the American people to demand that China share this information with the world. To date, the Chinese government has refused to provide sample of the virus.

WORLD HEALTH ORANIZATION

The WHO failed to declare the pandemic in a timely fashion, according to a recent statement by Pompeo. He added that it “still is not holding China accountable for failing to disclose the information that the world needs… President Trump has made clear that’s unacceptable to spend this much American taxpayer money for an institution that won’t work.” He said the WHO has become a political institution that “…allowed the Chinese Communist Party to have influence in ways that were inconsistent with the data and the facts.”

VENEZUELA

Secretary Pompeo was very clear in a recent interview when spoke about Venezuela’s current leader. “Maduro must go… He’s indicted on narcotrafficking charges here in the United States. This is a fellow who has wreaked enormous havoc in Venezuela.” Estimates indicate as many as six million Venezuelans have left their country. The establishment of socialism has brought down the once-rich nation and created a state of utter poverty. Pompeo said that the Administration wants to try to restore democracy for the Venezuelan people, which he noted also will increase security for America as well.

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HONG KONG

The US Government has decided to delay its report to the US Congress that will assess Hong Kong’s autonomy. Pompeo said the State Departments wants time to account for any additional actions that Beijing may be contemplating in the run-up to the National People’s Congress that would further undermine the people of Hong Kong’s autonomy as promised by China when they entered the agreement with the people of Hong Kong. Since the start of the pandemic Beijing and the CCP has been cracking down on Hong Kong will their actions garnering little attention in the media due to the spread of the COVID-19 virus spreading around the world.

IRAN

This week, Pompeo announced, “The United States sanctioned an individual and his company who were doing business with the IRG Qods Force for years, generating revenue and resources for their terror campaign. Anyone conducting business with Iranian entities should exercise extreme caution to ensure that they are not working with the IRGC.” The Trump Administration has been working with allies to convince them to stand with Washington as a united front against the destabilizing activities of the Iranian government. “We are not the only nation whose citizens are subject to the Iranian regime’s brutality. I was appalled to see reports last week of Iranian guards on the border of Afghanistan’s Herat province abused, tortured, drowned Afghan migrants who dared to cross the border simply in search of food and work,” said Pompeo. Washington is trying to encourage Afghan authorities to undertake a full investigation and to seek to hold the perpetrators accountable.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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