NORTH KOREA’S NEW THREAT

NORTH KOREA’S NEW THREAT

There are vital questions about North Korea’s launch of a multistage rocket that require fairly quick answers. The U.S. State Department, in its December 7 briefing before the launch, simply stated that the U.S. was “monitoring the situation closely.”

The mid-December launch is a highly unusual for a liquid fueled rocket from a cold climate, according to staff writers at Space War.

The rocket in question is the Unha-3, (in English, that means Galaxy-3,) a liquid fueled 3-stage vehicle standing about 105 feet high.  According to a Wall Street Journal report, it blasted off on a southward polar trajectory, taking it above Taiwan & the Philippines.  The missile is essentially a Taepo Dong 2 ICBM, a design being perfected by the North Koreans that will have the capability of striking the USA by 2015, according to the Heritage Foundation. Its current payload, according  to the North Korean news agency KCNA, is a 220 lb satellite weather observing satellite called Kwangmyhonsong (meaning “bright Star.)

It will be the 5th multistage rocket ever launched by North Korea.  Before this year, North Korea had previously fired long range rockets in August of 1998, July of 2006, and March of 2009.

Prior attempts to place a satellite in orbit have failed, most recently on April 9.

There are a number of unusual aspects to this launch that should raise eyebrows around the world. The first is the timing.  It marks the first time that North Korea has ever attempted two launched in the same year. It’s also unusual because prior launches have always taken place during the spring and summer, when the climate is far safer for a liquid fueled rocket.

The United Nations Security Council has condemned North Korea’s missile-related rocket program, claiming that they are a violation of Security Council resolutions 1718 of 2006 and resolution 1874 of 2009, mainly because the technology behind them is more akin to nuclear capable missiles than to civilian-oriented rocket technology.

The haste and the timing has diplomats and experts questioning the motives behind the timing and the date.

The Philippines, South Korea and the USA had urged North Korea to scrub the launch. The Washington Times reports that the American Navy has dispatched the guided missiles destroyers the USS John McCain, the USS Ben Fold, and the USS Fitzgerald, as well as the Guided Missile Cruiser USS Shiloh to monitor the launch.

The Prime Minister of Japan, Yoshihiko Noda, has called for international cooperation to address what he believes to be a national security crisis arising from the launch.  It’s his opinion that the launch is a thinly veiled ICBM test.  In the past, when a North Korean launch was scheduled to go over Japanese soil, orders have been given to shoot the vehicle down, as noted in the Straits Times.

China and Russia allege that they also oppose the launch, but took no significant diplomatic or other steps to stop it. China in particular has a great deal of leverage over the Pyongyang regime, but refuses to do anything.

An article in the Russian news service Pravda.ru  notes that ” The government of North Korea continues to defend its right to develop peaceful pace exploration before the international community. The [U.S.] Department of State officials do not believe such assurances.  North Korea is testing missiles than can fly to America, and all declarations about launching satellites into orbit are designed to disguise the true intentions of the North Korean military.”

There may be several reasons for the hasty launch plans.  The South Korean presidential election will take place on December 19–this may be an attempt to intimidate voters against supporting anyone who takes a hard line on relations with north. The North Koreans may also want to achieve the launch within approximately a year of the date when Kim jong-un took power.

But another, and perhaps more serious, timeline must be considered.  Iran will have a nuclear weapon ready in the next several months, and the Tehran regime needs a long-range rocket capable of deterring any potential Western attempts to forcibly eliminate that capability.

In fact, there is a significant amount of nuclear-related cooperation occurring between North Korea and Iran, as reported in The Daily Beast. Iran has stationed high-technology military personnel in North Korea, and is suspected of helping fund that nation’s advanced military research.

The Iranian Shehab-3 missile is derived from North Korea’s Nodong version.  The Shehab-5 and Shehab-6 reflect North Korea’s Taepo dong series.  Indeed, as Space War notes, the two nations have essentially maintained a “joint missile development program.”

Former President Bush coined the phrase, “axis of evil.”  It was probably never more appropriate than in this matter.  North Korea and Iran are two of the most belligerent-minded nations on earth.  They are ruled by paranoid regimes who repress freedom in their own countries. They deflect scarce resources from their needy populations to supply weapons programs aimed at foes who would have no cause for military concern were it not for those same weapons programs.

The NEW YORK ANALYSIS believes that there is a possibility that the North Korean-Iranian cooperation may be more than just a dollars-for-weapons technology deal, with the goal of fulfilling both nations’ desire for advanced weapons.  Under the Obama Administration’s philosophy of not having the U.S. prepared to fight two significant conflicts simultaneously, it is not inconceivable that, using missiles as “stand off” threats against America, simultaneous attacks by North Korea against South Korea and Iran against Israel or Saudi Arabia could paralyze Washington’s decision makers.

A significant question in all this is the role of China. The North Korean government would fall rather quickly without Beijing’s financial and diplomatic support.  It is, therefore, difficult to believe that any program as significant as major rocket and ICBM development, as well as Pyongyang’s deal with Iranians,  could occur without their approval.

Further, as noted by the Jamestown Foundation, while missile threats to the U.S. and its allies continue to grow, China has been stepping up its rhetoric against American missile defense development.  The Foundation notes that “A more specific Chinese concern is that U.S. BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] systems threaten to weaken a core component of China’s defense capacity.  Over the past decade systems Beijing has increased its defense spending dramatically to build a technically sophisticated missile arsenal. These systems include short-range missiles to prevent Taiwans’s independence and threaten U.S. and other adversary militaries near China; medium-range missiles to consolidate China’s influence in East Asia; and long-range missiles to deter the United States from interfering in Chinese efforts to achieve these first two objectives.  In addition, China continues to export missile technology to Pakistan, Iran, North Korea and other states to gain money and diplomatic influence.”