Month: March 2025

Part 2 of Allies Negligent in Defense

According to Lt.-Gen. (retd) Michael Maisonneuve, writing in Canada’s National Post “Canada’s military is short 16,000 troops, its branches are operating below readiness thresholds half the time, and its budget is being cut as wars erupt worldwide…the Canadian Armed Forces are broken down…First, personnel. Units are established with a structure that enables efficient operation and success. A unit that loses 15 per cent of its personnel is deemed officially combat ineffective in wartime. Our CAF — regular and reserve — count some 100,000 positions. Currently there are reports of 16,000 positions unfilled. So, on average, you could say that, missing 16 per cent of its personnel, our Forces are combat ineffective.”

The crisis was echoed by a Heritage analysis first published in the National Interest: “The Canadian government is one of the few NATO allies that fails to meet the 2 percent defense expenditure threshold. Canada is more than capable of meeting its obligations and has done so before…Canada’s continued underinvestment leaves its NATO obligations unmet and weakens the overall defense of the alliance as a whole and the North American continent… Canada isn’t a small country, nor is it a poor one. It’s perfectly capable of meeting its treaty obligations. Yet it spends a mere 1.37 percent of its GDP on defense, or roughly $30.5 billion a year. Despite having the sixth largest GDP among NATO countries, Canada ranks twenty-seventh in defense spending as a proportion of GDP. For comparison, the United States is the third-highest NATO member ranked in percentage of GDP (3.38 percent), behind only Poland and Estonia… The need to spend more on defense is particularly salient for Canada, as threats to NATO don’t only come from Eastern Europe. Canada also needs to take Arctic and North American security far more seriously as the Arctic emerges as a critical area of concern, rich in untapped resources and new navigation routes that are attracting attention from our adversaries.”

The Hub, a not-for-profit digital news outlet committed to independent analysis and spirited debate about Canada’s past, present and future reports that “The current state of Canada’s military and defence spending has been the subject of international criticism and a source of growing isolation from key allies. In a world of evolving geopolitical tensions and new and emerging threats, Canada’s underinvestment in national defence represents a major vulnerability… How does Canada compare to the rest of the NATO membership on defence spending relative to the size of their economies? …quite poorly. Out of 30 NATO members for which there is data (Iceland and Sweden are not included in the NATO spending figures), Canada ranks the fourth lowest in terms of defence spending relative to the size of its economy, only ahead of Spain, Belgium, and Luxembourg.”

The authoritative military website Warontherocks reported in 2024 that “Canada’s military is in a “death spiral.” This is how Minister of National Defense Bill Blair described the state of Canada’s armed forces … Blair’s comments referenced the military’s dire recruitment and retention crisis. The Canadian Armed Forces are short 16,000 people — …While the Canadian government has signed several high-profile contractsf or new equipment such as F-35s, Predator drones, and P-8A Poseidons, at this rate, there may not be anybody to use these capabilities when they come online…Canada’s ability to meaningfully contribute to major allied operations is in doubt for the foreseeable future… To understand Canada’s current military crisis, it is important to recognize how little importance Canadians ascribe to defense. Although recent polls indicate that attitudes are changing, particularly among conservative-leaning voters, Canadians have rarely seen defense as a priority. Surrounded by three oceans and neighboring the world’s largest military power, Canadians have rarely thought that defense spending was a worthwhile investment, particularly when compared with popular social programs.”

Photo: On December 13, a launch and naming ceremony was hosted by Seaspan Shipyards in Vancouver, B.C., for the new Joint Support Ship (JSS), HMCS Protecteur. (Canada Defence Ministry photo)

America’s key allies are seriously negligent in providing for their own defense. Not  only have they utterly failed to meet the growing challenges from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, but the have actually allowed their already inadequate militaries to deteriorate to levels not seen in over a century and a half.

A brief look at two of Washington’s most important allies, the United Kingdom and Canada, illustrates just how drastic the crisis is.

Let’s start with the UK, which was once the world’s foremost sea power.  

 One study found that “The British Royal Navy’s operational capacity has reached a historic low…The decline leaves the fleet at its smallest operational size in over a century, raising concerns about national security and Britain’s ability to respond to global threats.”

One would assume that sinking—no pun intended– to that level would provide an incentive to take action.  Unfortunately, the opposite is true. London has plans to sell off key components. The Army Recognition site reports that “According to information published by Daily Mail on January 26, 2025, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is reportedly preparing to sell two of its amphibious assault ships, HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark, to Brazil for a sum that undervalues their prior maintenance and refit costs. This move, part of a broader cost-cutting strategy, raises questions about the Royal Navy’s future amphibious capabilities and the strategic implications of offloading key assets at a time of increasing global instability.”

Selling vessels from an already undersized fleet is bad enough. Selling them for below market value is a further indication that the British government is disinterested in its own defense. Zona Militar adds that “British media outlets have reported criticism of the price set for their potential sale. According to reports, the offer made to the Brazilian government amounts to £20 million, a figure considered low compared to the investments made in these units over the past 14 years.”

The British think tank Geostrategy notes that a “a powerful perception of maritime decline, fanned on by Russian and Chinese discursive statecraft, has set in…geopolitics has worsened, as identified in the recent Integrated Review and Integrated Review Refresh, as well as the associated defence command papers. From December 2023, the UK got a glimpse of this as Iranian-backed Houthis began to strike and disrupt container shipping in the Red Sea. But this is only scratching the surface. Significant state-based threats have also emerged in other theatres: the same month, Venezuela threatened Guyana – to which HMS Trent was dispatched to Georgetown as a deterrent. More significantly, Russia has become a revisionist foe in Euro-Atlantic waters, including those surrounding the British Isles, while the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) fleet is growing at an astonishing rate in the Indo-Pacific…Both Russia and the PRC have long had revisionist intent, but their growing material power – particularly at sea – now gives them the means to act on it to shape the international order in accordance with their interests. In the words of James Cleverly, then Foreign Secretary, during his speech to the Mansion House in April 2023:

At this moment, China is carrying out the biggest military build-up in peacetime history…And as we see this happening; as we watch new bases appearing in the South China Sea and beyond, we are bound to ask ourselves: what is it all for? Why is China making this colossal military investment? And if we are left to draw our own conclusions, prudence dictates that we must assume the worst.”

Britain’s naval decline is mirrored in the rest of its armed forces. As noted by the United Kingdom Defence Journal (UKDJ) “According to the data release, the total number of UK Regular Forces based in the UK has decreased to 132,360 as of 1 April 2024, a notable decline from 156,970 in 2014. This represents a reduction of 24,610 personnel, or approximately 15.7%…The continuous reduction in the number of UK Regular Forces highlights a decade-long trend of downsizing. This decline reflects strategic shifts within the MOD, influenced by budgetary constraints, changes in defence policy, and a re-evaluation of military needs. Back in May 2024, it was reported that the Ministry of Defence’s latest quarterly service personnel statistics revealed a significant decline in the number of personnel in the British Army and other branches of HM Armed Forces. The total strength of UK Forces service personnel, including reserves, stands at 183,230, marking a decrease of 5,590 personnel, or 3%, from 1 April 2023.”

Tomorrow: Canada’s Vanishing Military

Photo: HMS Sutherland (British Defence Ministry photo)