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NY Analysis

Russian-Finnish Border

By their nature successful borders need to be occupied with cooperation from both sides. That type of relationship exists currently on Russia’s eastern front with China. Since World War II it also has existed on Russia’s west with Finland. This year, however,  the Russo-Finnish border relationship is showing indications that it is deteriorating. Its loss of integrity is emerging as a flashpoint between Helsinki and Moscow, as well as emerging as a potential North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) security issue.

There is a little-known area called the Saimaa Canal that was built in 1856 and has been upgraded a number of times to accommodate modern shipping requirements. It links Lake Saimaa to the Gulf of Finland. The Canal passes through 21 miles of Russian territory. Both nation-states have reduced their use of the canal due to sanctions, countersanctions, and fear that its use could pose a national security threat with unintended consequences. 

Finland “rents” the waterway from Russia and uses it for the transportation of consumer goods from areas as far away as China. It is the sole agreement Russia has with a foreign state to “rent” out its territory. Many political leaders in the Kremlin want it to end. Military analysts in Washington believe that Putin is seriously considering canceling the bilateral agreement. Loss of the commercial waterway will hurt both countries. The situation escalated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and intensified after Finland joined NATO in 2023. This fall it is not only a growing point of contention between the Russian Federation and NATO, but China is also becoming involved as it represents a potential loss of one of its important trade routes. 

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine traffic on the waterway has almost slowed to a halt. Leaders in Helsinki view the potential loss of the Canal as an attempt by Putin to undermine Finland’s independence. From Moscow’s perspective, it is convinced that “NATO is planning to use the waterway to invade Russi if Putin’s oft-threatened war between Russia and the West breaks out in earnest,” says Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. EU sanctions, he adds, limit Russian transit through the canal and stops at its various ports. Russian counter-sanctions on Finland reduced trade going in the other direction. Finland believes conflict could break out if Russia uses covert forces or sends in large numbers of refugees.

On September 11, the Finish Ministry of Transport and Communications announced it was indefinitely suspending the Saimaa Canal Advisory Board that oversees canal cooperation with Moscow. “Last week, well-connected Russian commentators suggested that the Kremlin is mulling canceling the agreement that allows Helsinki to rent the portion of the waterway on Russian territory—a step permitted this year under the most recent bilateral treaty governing the canal,” says Goble. If cancelled, it would effectively end the waterway as a trade route and have broad economic consequences for the two states directly involved and for the Central Asian states and China. Goble suggests the stage is set for it to also send “political shockwaves” with the potential for the shuttering of the Saimaa Canal to devolve into a major international crisis. The Russian publication TopWar.ru says that Russian rhetoric regarding Finland over the last two and a half years has become increasingly sharp, and Helsinki has responded in kind, with President Alexander Stubb declaring that his country does not fear Russia and is not about to be pushed around.

Building an alternative route would be extremely expensive for Finland. Russia would lose a valuable  source of income, totaling $1.5 million in annual canal rent, and much of its remaining leverage over Helsinki. Perhaps more significant, is that China would be enraged by the loss of the commercial waterway should Moscow back out of the agreement. Putin appears to be left with fewer and fewer options as the war drags on in Ukraine. 

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Pixabay

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TV Program

Honest Election?

Join us this week for an inside look at what is actually happening in the 2024 election.  Fred Lucas, author of the “The Myth of Voter Suppression: The Left’s assault on Clean Elections,” discusses whether this year will see an honest election.  He is the chief news correspondent of the Investigative Reporting Project for the Daily Signal.  Judge John Wilson, (ret.) author of several books on the lawfare assault on former president Trump, provides extraordinary insights. If you missed the program on your local channel, watch it here https://rumble.com/v5h786j-the-american-political-zone-october-1-2024.html

Categories
Quick Analysis

It’s Not Incompetence, It’s Intentional

Taking a look at the horrific headlines facing the nation, it would be understandable to conclude that there is massive incompetence at the federal, state and local levels.

Why would any executive, legislator, or law enforcement official such as an attorney general or district attorney let repeat felons continuously out on low or no bail? Why would they penalize heroes who seek to defend themselves and others from assailants? Who in their right mind would “Defund the Police” in an era of rising crime?

Why would Washington leave the nation’s borders wide open to millions, despite the skyrocketing rise to power of drug cartels, human traffickers, and organized criminal gangs?

Why do state boards of education ignore the transfer of funds meant for academic subjects towards propaganda that vilifies the United States?

How could Washington enact, year after year absurd budgets that spend far more than is taken in by taxes? Why do they act as though essential items, such as defense, preserving social security, and other needs, have the same priority as pork barrel projects?

Why would the White House adopt scientifically unsound energy policies that result in spiraling inflation?
 

Of course, it is not that our elected officials are so incompetent that that they cannot understand how foolish their policies are. They hear the anguish of the residents of cities as they increasingly fall victim to crimes. They can clearly observe the devastation illegal immigration has produced throughout the nation. Despite all attempts at censorship, they know the American public sees through their nonsensical slander of more conservative political opponents, and that voters are sickened by attempts to divide the nation. Families know that the government cannot continue to spend more than they take in.

The fact is, it is not incompetence.  It is the pursuit of goals so alien to the American way of life and so contrary to the nation’s Constitution that motivates the elected officials, media kingpins, and academic elites that motivate these bizarre policies.

Underlying all of this is an attempt to end the capitalist economic system, and to eliminate the ability of the Bill of Rights and the legacy of personal freedom that would stand in the way of that goal.  That includes the right to inculcate your own children with the morals that you believe in, and the ability to pass on your assets to them.

Defending your property against thieves indicates that you have property rights in the first place, so worrying about criminals taking what doesn’t belong to them is not a priority. Pointing out that your tax dollars shouldn’t go to illegal aliens who have not produced anything is pointless to progressive leaders who don’t believe that the fruit of your labor belongs to you. They want to flood the nation with illegals who were not brought up in the history of individual rights, and who want and need a strong government to decide how to distribute income is an essential part of their gameplan.

They don’t care if their policies have made food, shelter and energy unaffordable, because that increases reliance on the government to bail you out and make you wholly dependent on them. Achieving the ability to fend for yourself is a distraction from the goal of giving the government the power to decide what you should spend your money on.

 That especially applies to your personal vehicles.  So what if you can’t afford to fuel your car?  The concept of personal transportation freedom is anathema to the advocates of socialism. To them, the government should decide when, where, and how to travel.

Illustration: Pixabay

Categories
Quick Analysis

America’s Crippling Debt Crisis

From the time that the first pioneers arrived at Plymouth Rock and Jamestown, America had always been a forward-looking nation. Now, however, it is mortgaging its future to pay for programs it simply can’t afford. The problem had been growing for decades, but the acceleration under the current Administration has reached a breaking point.

The problem is so vast that interest expenses on the national debt, now reaching $35 trillion, exceeds what America spends on its own national defense.

 In the current federal fiscal year, which began in October, interest payments have reached $514 billion dollars. The problem is accelerating. The deficit totaled $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2024, grows to $1.8 trillion in 2025, and then returns to $1.6 trillion by 2027. Thereafter, deficits steadily mount, reaching $2.6 trillion in 2034.  Those deficits will have to be paid for by borrowing, and interest rates will grow accordingly.

According to the Congressional Budget Office “Since the Great Depression, deficits have exceeded that level only during and shortly after World War II, the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and the corona­virus pandemic. Debt held by the public rises each year in relation to the size of the economy, reaching 116 percent of GDP in 2034—an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history. From 2024 to 2034, increases in mandatory spending and interest costs outpace declines in discretionary spending and growth in revenues and the economy, driving up debt. That trend persists, pushing federal debt to 172 percent of GDP in 2054.”

If the U.S. government were a private company, it would be staring at bankruptcy. 

The problem hits every American hard through inflation. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes the impact on the economy: “Higher interest rates on federal debt and bank reserves increase interest rates throughout the economy on everything from mortgages to student loans to credit cards. They also contribute to a phenomenon called ‘crowd out,’ where investors purchase government bonds instead of investing in the private sector, thus slowing economic growth. CBO estimates that for every $1 of new U.S. government borrowing, total investment falls by 33 cents and an additional 24 cents of the return to investments goes abroad, resulting in slowing income growth over time.”

 A 2023 Heritage study notes “The amount of additional spending resulting from legislation passed between March 2020 and December 2022 is astonishing: $7.5 trillion—more than $57,400 dollars per household. While federal spending per American has steadily increased in real terms over the past several decades, the pace of the increase in recent years has been shocking.”

Senator Mitch McConnell stated t last year that “Since President Biden took office, consumer prices have risen more than 16 percent. American families are paying 20 percent more to put food on the table than they did in January 2021. And 36 percent more on energy. But over more than two years of Washington Democrats’ runaway inflation, President Biden’s top advisors have refused to even admit that there’s a problem – let alone that their policies are driving it.” 

The Government Accounting Office (GAO) worries that “The federal government faces an unsustainable long-term fiscal path that poses serious economic, security, and social challenges if not addressed. Congress and the administration will need to make difficult budgetary and policy decisions to address the key drivers of federal debt and change the government’s fiscal path. The sooner actions are taken to change the long-term fiscal path, the less drastic they will need to be. Debt is projected to grow faster than the economy over the long term.”

At the end of fiscal year 2023, the $26.2 trillion in debt held by the public was about 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). GAO projects that under current revenue and spending policies, debt held by the public will reach its historical high of 106 percent of GDP by 2028, and grow more than twice as fast as the economy over a 30-year period, reaching 200 percent of GDP by 2050.

Perpetually rising debt as a share of GDP is unsustainable and has many direct and indirect implications on the economy and American households and individuals. Debt held by the public is projected to grow faster than GDP.

Illustration: Pixabay