Month: January 2024

The world has turned upside down so many times in the last few years that many political analysts studying Russia say they have lost track of which way is up. There is one area, however, in which there does appear to be consensus in Washington. The war in Ukraine appears to be approaching a significant turning point as Putin faces mounting domestic problems along with an extended stalemate on the battlefield. Although the Russian president boasts about victories on the frontlines, the current state of the war against Ukraine belies a different reality. 

Recent Russian military actions in Avdiivka, in the Donbas region, suggest a level of Kremlin desperation not previously seen in the war. The Biden Administration released a declassified intelligence assessment last week that estimated Russian troops killed and wounded in the attacks on the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka stand at around 13,000 personnel. Pavel Baev, of the Jamestown Foundation, says that despite the challenges of war Putin remains “defiantly confident” that his forces are making progress. 

The Rossiiskaya Gazeta reports that Putin made his first campaign trip in 2024 to the Far East to boast about what he labels as his military successes and to highlight economic improvement in a very depressed area of Chukotka, in easternmost Russia. Many cities in the region remain without electricity or heating in subzero temperatures common at this time of year. Moscow also lacks adequate heating and electricity as the war continues to disrupt life in the capital city.  

The Siberian paper suggests openly that the local population was “not assured” by Putin’s statement that Moscow residents were also suffering from the cold without access to heating and electricity. Another local publication says the administration’s attempt to show that candidate Putin was physically strong enough to brave the cold simply “failed.” Political cartoons appeared in Russia media soon after the trip showing local agricultural products, including tomatoes and cucumbers, with Putin’s surname after them. Commenters mocked the Russian president saying a “Viagra formula” was used on the greenhouse cucumbers due to the 12 below zero temperatures so that when Putin touched them, they came to life. “Moscow’s struggle with providing adequate heating and electricity for its population points to Putin’s increasingly dubious attempts to pretend that his war in not coming home to ordinary Russian and disrupting their everyday lives,” according to Paul Goble in the Eurasian Daily Monitor.

Putin’s messaging is contradictory, says Baev. The failed attacks on Avdiivka proved that time is not on Russia’s side. Similarly, missile attacks aimed to prove its air superiority had limited success. Most were intercepted and none caused any critical military or economic damage. 

Ukrainian president Zelensky is addressing a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. He is expected to discuss his propositions for a “peace formula” to rehabilitate the European security system. The Kremlin says there is no point to talk peace without Russia’s input. Baev says a shift in the balance of power is coming and it will be determined by three key changes. The first he points to is the European Union’s (EU) decision on additional aid for Ukraine (estimated to be $54.53 billion) and maintaining investment to increase the production of artillery shells. Second, the US Congress still faces a controversial vote on a complex aid package that amounts to $61.4 billion in military support. Finally, it appears more time may be required to channel frozen Russian financial assets, estimated at around $300 billion, to support and reconstruct Ukraine. Sources in Moscow suggest that Putin is increasingly nervous as he has little control over whether the US will move forward with confiscating and repurposing the funds, although most of the money resides in European banks. The EU will most likely decide how to proceed after its June parliamentary elections.

Putin’s strategy to date is to create a deep chasm among Western states to reduce their support for Ukraine. Kremlin propaganda teams are working overtime this month advocating for a reduction in Western funding, while also attempting to hide the depth of economic stress in Russia during a period when its military already is operating at full capacity.

“Each of Putin’s strategic designs for crushing Ukraine has failed, and it is highly probable that, as the war nears it three-year-mark, the Kremlin will miscalculate the degree of Western fatigue and discord,” says Baev. Ukraine remains determines and the West is standing behind Zelensky. The combination could spell major trouble for Putin’s war effort this spring at home and on the battlefront.
  
 Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: Pixabay

As described by NBC News, “(e)very day it seems there’s another violent attack on a subway or bus in New York City, a crime wave that has set many residents on edge…(w)hether it’s a mass shooting on a train… or a string of random knife attacks…transit crime has been at the forefront of many people’s minds. In fact, statistics show that crime on subways and buses is up more than 41 percent in 2022 compared to the same time period in 2021.” 

Probably the  most frustrating aspect of the crime increase, is the overt discouragement of acting in defense of self or others – the punishment of a “good deed.”  As Bob McManus, writing in the New York Post states,  “(h)ere’s the thing about self-defense in the big city: You can be damned if you do, but maybe dead if you don’t – and you can never know which in advance. Do you risk it? Think of this as Daniel Penny’s dilemma – and New York City’s into the foreseeable future. Penny chose to defend himself and other F-train passengers…(w)hen it was over, a career criminal with a long history of violent behavior was dead — and the former Marine Corps sergeant was ­under arrest.”  

Now, yet another subway incident has occurred to remind would-be Good Samaritans of the price to be paid in New York for making any effort to halt a crime.

“A vigilante gunman was arrested,” according to the New York Post, “as wild surveillance video emerged showing him brazenly opening fire in a Manhattan subway station in what officials called an ‘outrageous’ and ‘reckless’ attempt to thwart a robbery. John Rote, 43, of Astoria was taken into custody at his Manhattan job shortly after 2 p.m. after he was recognized by someone who saw the footage of him allegedly opening fire on the homeless man who was trying to rob a woman on the platform of the Times Square station…Rote, who has no prior arrests, was charged with criminal possession of a weapon, criminal possession of a firearm, reckless endangerment and menacing, the NYPD said.” 

Sure enough, Rote can be seen on video, standing on the train platform, pointing his gun down the platform.  As reported by Fox5, “inside the N-R-W subway station at West 49th and 7th Avenue, a panhandler had opened the emergency gate and threatened to steal the purse of a woman if she didn’t give him money. According to police, Rote told officers he was watching and pulled out a gun he was carrying and fired warning shots in an attempt to stop the mugging.” 

Of course, there are drastic differences between the charges Rote is faced with and the case brought against Penny.  Penny did not use a weapon; Rote did, but his actions did not result in physical harm to anyone.  In fact, the person threatening the female subway rider, 49 year old homeless repeat offender Matthew Roesch “was arrested at the scene…charged with attempted robbery and was given supervised release.”  Meanwhile, Rote was eventually released after posting $10,000 bond. h

Another difference involves the reaction of those each tried to protect.  While his fellow subway riders praised Penny and thanked him for protecting their lives, Rote’s victim has a different view.  “Of course, I am happy that that man tried to help me and that nobody was injured during this incident, but it’s scary to think that people are carrying guns around the city,” the 40 year old unidentified woman told the New York Post.  “The gun was pointed in my direction, and that’s all I saw. It was a feeling of pure terror that I don’t wish on anyone.” 

Remember the explanation given earlier of the proverb, “no good deed goes unpunished?” “You try to help someone, then they respond by hurting or betraying you.”

Nonetheless, as the victim points out, the discharge of the firearm is the most significant difference between the two cases.  “Straphangers like Rocket Clayman are now making their own statements about this kind of intervention. ‘I think that we need stronger gun control across the board in this country. So I certainly would not be in favor of somebody firing a shot,’ Clayman said.”  Meanwhile, “71-year-old Hell’s Kitchen resident Percy Palmer is supportive of Rote’s alleged actions. ‘I don’t think it was too much, though, because you don’t know what that person had that’s attacking that woman instead of asking her, may I have a dollar or something like that,’ Palmer said.” 

It’s clear that the authorities take a very dim view of Rote’s actions. According to NYC Mayor Eric Adams, “this is not a Charles Bronson era with ‘Death Wish’…(l)et the police do their job – don’t think you can do their job without the proper training that comes from law enforcement.” Then there is this statement from Richard Davey, the President of NYC Transit; “I want to be clear: we don’t tolerate this kind of conduct in NYC Transit, period…Once again cameras recorded a perpetrator, and we are grateful the NYPD made an arrest within hours. Thank goodness nobody was hurt here – but what occurred was outrageous, reckless, and unacceptable.” 

Of course, these comments ignore the fact that there were no police in the vicinity.  In fact, since the “defund the police” movement in the wake of the death of George Floyd, “New York has seen record departures by police for each of the past three years…(i)n 2022, about 3,700 departed (an increase of 32 percent over the previous year), and fewer than 2,000 were hired. And it wasn’t only uniformed officers exiting. According to the Detectives Endowment Association, in June 2022 alone, more than 100 detectives left the job. Based on the first two months of 2023, the NYPD is likely to continue bleeding blue. In January and February, 239 officers left—almost 40 percent more than in the same period in 2022, and a 117 percent jump over 2021. If the pace keeps up, the department could lose more than 5,000 officers this year.” 

Less police officers overall means less police officers available to patrol the subways.  Yet, the Mayor and Police Department leadership have tried to put a positive face on their dwindling available police resources. “New York City has a new strategy to make riders feel safer on the subway: Alerting people at certain stops that police are stationed there in case they want to get off the train and report a crime,” according to Bloomberg.  Which means after you’ve been menaced, robbed or assaulted on the train, you can report the crime once you get to a station where a police officer is present.  How comforting!

The sad fact is that “(i)ncreased policing on the subway has not led to increased safety on the subway,” according to Ileana Mendez-Peñate, a program director with Communities United for Police Reform.  

It is not unreasonable to express some level of concern over a firearm being fired in a subway station.  However, much like Daniel Penny, John Rote might also be facing more serious charges than are warranted.

At Rote’s arraignment, his public defender claimed that Rote had bought the gun he fired legally.     But this ambiguous description could mean several things.  It remains unknown if Rote had any valid handgun license, whether it be for concealed carry, or if his license allowed him to transport his pistol to and from a firing range. 

Whatever “legal status” Rote may claim in his possession of the gun he fired also does not change the fact that New York’s restrictions on the right to bear arms guaranteed by the Second Amendment to the US Constitution are overly burdensome.  As we noted in June, the statutes used by Bragg are unconstitutionally inspecific and overbroad; “(U)nder New York Penal Law Section 265.01(1), a person is guilty of a Class A misdemeanor if “(h)e or she possesses any firearm,” which is defined at 265.00(3)(a) as “any pistol or revolver.”     Then there is the more onerous PL Section 265.01-b, enacted under former Governor Andrew Cuomo, which makes it a Class E felony to possess “any firearm.”  There is no qualitative difference between the language used in the felony charge or the misdemeanor quoted above…how is one to know whether one will be charged with the felony, or the misdemeanor, if one is found in possession of a pistol in a public place in New York City? Your guess is as good as mine – and I was a Criminal Lawyer for 20 years, and a Criminal Court Judge for 10 more.” 

The issue at the heart of both Penny and Rote’s cases is New York’s open and obvious policy of discouragement of the exercise of the right of self defense, or the defense of others. This is no secret; just ask anyone on X, formerly known as Twitter.   “So, NY keeps showing us that if you see something, do nothing,” one poster writes. “They wonder why crime continues to rise.” Another writes, “So basically. Don’t try save someone… cause NYC will arrest you and charge you. Awesome. If you wanted to put people Off from helping people NYC, you just did it.”  Yet another states, “So, this is how you’re rewarded for being a model citizen in New York? What a dump it’s turned into. When did it become detrimental to help someone being robbed?!” In other words, both Daniel Penny and John Rote have discovered the same truth – in New York, no good deed goes unpunished.

Judge John Wilson (ret.) served on the bench in NYC

Photo: Pixabay

According to the website for the Grammarist, the proverb we have quoted for the title of today’s column “is a cynical twist on the idea that good people are rewarded for being good (when) in real life, this is often not the case. Many don’t understand that the ‘punishment’ may come from the person to whom you’ve done the good deed. You try to help someone, then they respond by hurting or betraying you.”  This phrase “has been variously attributed to Walter Winchell, John P. Grier, Oscar Wilde, Andrew Mellon, and Clare Boothe Luce. One of the earliest known uses was during the 12th century, when Walter Map wrote the phrase, “left no good deed unpunished, no bad one unrewarded,” in his work ‘De nugis curialium.'” 

No where has this fatalistic statement been proven to be more true, than in the cases of several individuals who have tried to stop crime in the New York City Subway system.

In May, we discussed the case of Daniel Penny, who was arrested and indicted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for Manslaughter and Criminally Negligent Homicide.   What did Penny do to deserve these charges?  As CNN describes the incident, “Penny held 30-year-old Jordan Neely in a chokehold during a May incident when Neely entered a subway car and began shouting at passengers. Neely died soon after, and the medical examiner ruled his death a homicide.” 

Of course, there is far more to Neely’s actions than entering a subway car and shouting at passengers.  In fact, eyewitness “Juan Alberto Vazquez said he was riding the subway when he saw a man, later identified as Neely, enter the car just as the doors were closing. Neely immediately launched into an aggressive rant about being ‘fed up and hungry’ and ‘tired of having nothing’…Vazquez quoted Neely as saying: ‘I don’t care if I die. I don’t care if I go to jail. I don’t have any food … I’m done.’ Neely then took off his coat and threw it on the floor and said he was ready to go to jail and get a life sentence…(m)any passengers became visibly uncomfortable and moved to other parts of the train car…(Penny) then approached Neely from behind and put him in a chokehold, Vazquez said.” 

In October, Penny’s defense lawyers filed a motion to dismiss the charges based upon Neely’s violent and provocative behavior, and Penny’s justifiable efforts to stop Neely before he could hurt the other passengers on the train.  How Penny could have been indicted in the first place is a mystery, given that “grand jury testimony from witnesses riding the subway during the incident (include) one of whom believed they were ‘going to die’…(t)hat unnamed witness, who said they have ridden the New York subway for six years, described the moment as ‘absolutely traumatizing,’ court documents say. . Another witness, a mother, said she took cover behind her stroller with her son to shield themselves from Neely, who was making ‘half-lunge movements’ and within ‘half a foot of people,’ the documents say.”

Several possible explanations for Bragg’s indictment of Penny are provided by the New York Times, “(t)he case has been politically volatile, involving issues that have polarized New Yorkers: violent incidents on the subway and the vulnerability of homeless and mentally ill people struggling through a crisis of affordability in an unequal city. It was also understood through the prism of race relations: Mr. Neely was Black and Mr. Penny is white.” 

In any event, as of this writing, the motion to dismiss has not yet been decided by the New York State Supreme Court.  But all the issues cited by the Times as contributing to the interest in the case still exist – particularly the problem of violence on the New York City subways.

Judge John Wilson’s (ret.) report concludes tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

An overall examination of America’s descending fortunes is startling. The crisis is not restricted to any one area. It extends to a broad range of the most important aspects of national life. This turn of events was neither inevitable nor due to any external events.

In early November, Moody’s Investor Service let it be known that it was considering downgrading the U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating Outlook from neutral to negative. This follows the August downgrade by Fitch Ratings from AAA to AA+. An Atlantic Council review noted that “The downgrading decision is another warning sign, and the only question is why it took twelve years for Fitch to follow the move by S&P to remove the AAA rating on US long-term debt. Neither the complacency of markets nor the forced optimism of officials reflects the seriousness of the rating agencies’ concerns.”

Beyond government debt, which has risen from $10.3 trillion in 2008 to $33 trillion today, with no appreciable gain in infrastructure, military strength, education, or any other aspect in the national life, individual Americans are dealing with massive inflation.

The U.S. had achieved energy independence, but this extraordinary accomplishment was thrown away. Now, Washington begs for supplies from nations hostile to it.

American education is failing. A Fortune study found that “American students are in trouble. About a third of students in the youngest grades are behind on reading. Only 36% of fourth graders are proficient at grade-level math. The newest National Assessment for Educational Progress (NAEP)–the nation’s report card–shows eighth-graders’ history scores are the lowest on record since the assessment began in 1994. And what’s more, every single state experienced teacher shortages in at least one subject in 2022.”

73.654 people died as a result of Fentanyl last year, notes usafacts. FBI Statistics indicate that property crimes and carjacking’s have increased sharply. Random violence haunts major cities.

The United States is functioning as a nation without borders. At least 2.8 million persons have entered the U.S. illegally this year. This will produce a massive increase in human trafficking, foreign agents, and terrorists. Additionally, state and local governments are experiencing massive financial difficulties in dealing with the housing, medical, educational, and food needs of the influx.

Race relations have descended dramatically, not due to any actual reason but due to the political posturing of a very vocal progressive pressure group, the same people who have introduced antisemitism into American universities and politics.

Through the early part of the 21^st century, America was seen as the predominate superpower. However, as a result of underinvestment in defense, the discouragement of enlistment, and bad treaties, that is no longer true. Military recruiting is dismally short of what is needed. Both the Army and the Air Force are about 10,000 short each of their goals, and the Navy will be about 6,000 below necessary numbers.

Russia has a more powerful nuclear force, and China has a larger navy. A wholly botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, leaving billions of dollars to the very terrorists that were responsible for the 9/111 attacks, signaled Washington’s adversaries that incompetence existed in the White House. 

The basic underpinnings of American democracy have been directly challenged.  Biased federal agencies interfered in the 2020 presidential election by seeking to pressure media sources to not publish news stories that were detrimental to one side. It also assisted that side by aiding in the propagation of an utterly false allegation about the candidate of the other side.

These outcomes are the direct result of terrible policy decisions and the subjugation of the national good to partisan politics. A desperate attempt to buy votes led to spending far beyond what the nation can afford. Appeasing environmental extremists who operate on questionable and falsely alarming studies irrationally destroyed energy production, which directly led to massive inflation. Limiting defense spending to have more dollars to buy votes has weakened national security.

The educational establishment has turned away from using schools to teach objective facts and now commits resources for frankly partisan purposes. In service to those partisan objectives, it spreads false teachings on the environment, race relations, and American history.

The President and his family have been significantly enriched by the Chinese Communist Party. This discourages his Administration from confronting Beijing on its outrageous actions in fentanyl chemical exports, massive arms buildup, Latin American military buildup, human rights violations, international aggression, extensive espionage,  intellectual property theft, and more.

The good news is that this course of events can be stopped and eventually reversed with a change in leadership.

Illustration: Pixabay

In the unfortunate political climate of the day, partisanship tends to overshadow common sense and common decency.

Over the decades, both Democrats and Republicans have been guilty of putting their party’s interest above that of the public.  Never before, however, has partisanship risen to its current level. Blatant abuse by elected officials and the heads of governmental agencies of their official positions has become the new normal.

It would be disingenuous to state that both parties are equally guilty.  There is no past precedent or current equivalent for the extent and manner in which Democrats, since the election of Barack Obama, have exploited their official powers for partisan purposes.

Presidents have previously used the IRS to inappropriately surveil opponents. But the Obama Administration went far beyond that. As The Cato Institute notes,

“…the IRS in 2010 compiled a “be on the lookout” (‘BOLO’) list to identify organizations engaged in [opposition] political activities. The list included words such as ‘Tea Party,’ ‘Patriots,’ and ‘Israel’; subjects such as government spending, debt, or taxes; and activities such as criticizing the government, educating about the Constitution, or challenging Obamacare. The targeting continued through May 2013, with no consequences other than Lois Lerner, the chief of the exempt‐​organizations unit, being held in contempt of Congress—and then being allowed to peacefully retire despite erased records and other cover‐​ups.“

Obama also initiated overbearing federal measures to silence opponents, using the concept of “disinformation” to censor critics. Fox and others have noted  how  a Obama-era interagency organization ‘blacklisted’ Americans in attempt to curb ‘foreign disinformation’

The abuse of power and censorship legacy has been expanded upon by Biden. As Townhall notes, the current  “administration [engages in] blatant and hostile partisanship. When Biden does happen to think clearly on a given day, he immediately turns to vilifying and scapegoating Republicans like they are enemies of the state and not just fellow Americans. Biden’s fleeting moments of lucidity merely serve to score political points with his left-wing base, treating the Republican Party like it’s some rogue state or terrorist group.If you check the record, Biden’s rhetoric is deeply disturbing in a way that even his mental decline could never be. It is vitriolic and hateful, dividing a nation that he claimed to be unifying. Lest we forget: Biden’s inauguration address referenced “unity” nearly 10 times, and yet he’s governing as a divider of political parties. Even Barack Obama was less divisive.”

Even seasoned political observers have been stunned by the extent to which Biden has used his official position to attack his opponents. Most presidents have periodically criticized their opponents in their various remarks.  For the Biden Administration, it has been the central focus.

The Wall Street Journal notes that Biden has already revealed that the White House strong-armed platforms into more censorship than they considered justified—prompting the judge in one case to declare that the administration had made “arguably the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history.”

The Federalist presents the issue succinctly.  “Democrats have arrested, prosecuted, and raided their enemies. the Democratic Congress and administration have written a vicious battle plan… The Biden administration has made clear they’ll prosecute their political opponents every chance they get. That means that despite Republican … Kevin McCarthy’s threat to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland accountable … he will only be empowered to hold Garland accountable under a Republican administration (unless he complies with Republican congressional oversight, which he won’t)…. Arresting an administration official after he’s left office is a dangerous precedent, but it’s one Democrats gleefully set this past year.”

The historical context is frightening.  Biden is following a playbook used by other leaders during the 20^th century. Replace his phrase “Maga” with Hitler’s “Jew,” or Lenin’s “bourgeoise,” add to it the penchant of those dictators to censor and arrest their opponents, and the danger of the current President’s partisanship becomes clear.