Month: December 2022

As many as 37 million Chinese could have been infected with Covid-19 in a single day this week. China’s December total of Covid-19 infections now appears to stand at around 248 million people or 18% of China’s total population. The infected roughly make up a population the size of Indonesia. “The scale of infections and death, suggests that the virus has spread beyond major urban centers such as Beijing and Shanghai into the countryside… [and] presents a major challenge for China as its rural healthcare infrastructure is ill-prepared to handle a mass wave of infections. Yet, despite the serious nature of the pandemic, the Chinese government decided to lift restrictions for Chinese wishing to travel outside the country. It is seen by some analysts in the West as an attempt to level the playing field by reinfecting foreign populations around the world. 

Re-weaponizing the virus is only one branch of China’s aggressive foreign policy. For the first time in the history of Russian-PRC relations Russian naval assets are expressly practicing implementation of a blockade together with their Chinese counterparts. The joint naval exercise was held from December 21-27 near islands off of Taiwan. The Global Times reports that “due to the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fact that the military exercise area is the closest to Taiwan in the past 10 years, the misunderstandings and misinterpretations arising from this joint military exercise are more than in previous years. US and Western public opinion is watching the military cooperation between China and Russia with vigilance.”

The naval drills have carried express political implications, from the mock-blockade of Taiwan following Speaker Pelosi’s visit there to one of the largest assemblies of a Chinese carrier group shortly after Japan announced its new, more aggressive national security strategy, according to the Jamestown Foundation. “Joint Sea 2022” appears to be a reaffirmation of Russian support for China in any potential cross-strait conflict. As tensions increase, US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith suggested that the implications of the military cooperation are far-reaching and that China and Russia are increasingly sharing a “toolkit of strategies to undermine NATO.”
  

A Global Times editorial published this week adds that “Some subjects of the exercise, such as anti-submarine and air defense, involve relatively sensitive data, reflecting the high strategic mutual trust and transparency between China and Russia, which will be further deepened and enhanced along with the exercise.” In addition to raising the two countries’ capabilities in maritime combat and joint operations, the exercise is a further indication that China is not turning inward nor is it backtracking on its aggressive stance in the East China Sea. The Russian Foreign Ministry defends the so-called “no limits” relationship between the two communist nations by labeling it as a “counterweight to the United States.”

Russia and China, according to The Hill, have engaged in multiple military drills since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last February, including nuclear-capable bomber flights in May that took place during President Biden’s visit to Japan. A September joint exercise involved more than 2,000 Chinese troops, and the two countries in November flew bombers in joint patrols over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. China and Russia are continuing to develop their mutually convenient friendship with the world as witness to drills that reflect a growing defense cooperation between the two countries. What is concerning to analysts is how far the cooperation will go in the coming year. Neither country has an extensive list of countries friendly to them or their causes. According to the Russian News Service TASS, Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to speak with the Russian President before the end of the year. There is no indication that the relationship will change. Although China’s rise to power over the last few decades has skewed the relationship in Beijing’s favor, it still needs Moscow to distract the world from the CCP’s misadventures. Taken individually, each event cementing their bilateral relationship does not represent a new, more dangerous level of security threat to the world. In combination over time, however, the Russia-China relationship may end up destabilizing the free world and potentially lead to kinetic warfare in Asia, Central Asia, or Europe.

Joe Biden is America’s oldest President, but his inflationary policies are decidedly anti-senior citizen.  The threat to the financial viability of older Americans is both manifest and deeply substantial.

The stunning hike in inflation, from about 1.3% under President Trump to the current 7.7% after barely two years of Democrat control of the federal government, is destroying the solvency of older Americans.

An Association of Mature American Citizens (AMAC) analysis  revealed that “President Biden’s anti-energy, pro-tax and spend policies, supported by congressional Democrats, are destroying seniors’ lifetime savings, pensions, 401k, SEP, equity, and cash holdings. Seniors struggled with more mandates and bureaucracy, less accountability. They pay high taxes, higher prices for rent and medicine, work longer, retire later, socialize less. Their views – love of country, character, faith, and history are disparaged. This is Biden’s legacy, a war on seniors.”

Numerous studies have outlined how the inflationary policies of the Biden Administration harm the elderly. Despite some pretensions to address the issue, including so-called “anti-inflationary” legislation that actually hikes the spiral of increasing government spending, the problem will continue to worsen unless there is a complete change in policy. Unfortunately, in recent comments, both Biden and his allies in the Senate have signaled no such change in course.

That so-called “anti-inflation” legislation disproportionately burdens seniors while doing nothing substantial to cut rising costs. Casey B. Mulligan and Tomas J. Philipson have found that it will lead to benefit cuts and premium increases for seniors. They explain that Medicare’s popular drug-coverage program is headed for a painful amputation.

A Kiplinger Study notes that “Retirees’ sources of income tend to be vulnerable to large inflation spikes. Employees can at least make the case for inflation-based raises, but retirees don’t have that option. If you’re a retiree, most of your income is likely either tied to markets or is in fixed income, two sources that are highly affected by inflation. Pensions are a mainstay of retirement income for many. But this source of income is struggling to match pace with inflation. Most private pensions don’t offer cost of living adjustments, or COLAs, which means that if you’re a retiree relying on pension income, you’ll receive the same payments regardless of their diminishing value.”

The problem is multi-faceted. Many key Democrat influencers are now advocating forcing their woke political views on pension plans, a concept known as “ESG”, which stands for environmental, social, and governance. The Center for Retirement Research notes that the evidence suggests that these types of investments yield lower returns.

 Continued inaction in rescuing Social Security’s solvency is a looming threat. A Heritage study explains that “Social Security’s future is not secure. The program is running out of time and money, and recent increases in debt and spending have crowded out options for reform. Democrats’ plan for Social Security would hasten insolvency and exacerbate shortfalls. A financial examination of the concept makes it clear that it  would hasten Social Security’s insolvency by two years (to 2032) and increase the program’s already massive shortfalls by an additional 21%”.

All of those dollars taken from paychecks for Social Security are not in special account reserved for future payments. They go into the general treasury. When massive new spending programs, such as President Biden’s decision to forgive student loan debt, or to provide benefits to illegal aliens, this places a strain on that treasury, and thus endanger social security’s ability to guarantee future payments.

Biden has sought to deflect attention from these issues by falsely claiming credit for recent social security increases, which address inflation.  In reality, Social Security cost-of-living adjustments occur automatically, based on a formula tied to inflation. Seniors have received increases almost every year for the past decade.

Photo: Pixabay

As the threat from China grows, the importance of the U.S.-Japanese alliance expands.

Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs, speaking at the Mount Fuji Dialogue in October stated that “China’s aggressive and coercive military activities in the Taiwan Strait and in waters surrounding Japan … are provocative and destabilizing. China is seeking to establish a new normal concerning Taiwan, and this threatens regional peace and security.  Meanwhile, over the last year, we have seen a dramatic increase in People’s Liberation Army non-standard and unsafe air intercepts in the region, designed to coerce and intimidate U.S. and allied forces operating lawfully in international airspace.”   

The Council on Foreign Relations notes that There are more than eighty U.S. military facilities in Japan. More U.S. service members are permanently stationed in Japan than in any other foreign country.

Bloomberg News reports that “Japan is set to approve what could be its biggest increase in defense outlays since the end of the war, putting it on a path to become one of the world’s top military spenders.In a Defense Ministry budget request for fiscal 2023 expected by the end of August, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party is looking to double spending over five years from this year’s 5.4 trillion yen ($39.5 billion). Outlays of that scale could propel Japan from ninth in the world for military spending to a likely third spot behind the US and China, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, which tracks defense spending.”

Ratner also emphasized that North Korea is a third threat with its continuing development of nuclear weapons and its missile program in violation of international law, he said. “These hostile activities are dangerous, reckless and damaging to regional and international security.  Moreover, we share serious concerns over the DPRK’s escalatory and destabilizing messaging related to nuclear weapons use.” 

The Assistant Secretary emphasizes “These threats call for responses and the United States and Japan are working together to strengthen the treaty alliance between the two nations and modernize deterrence capabilities. We are fundamentally enhancing the alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities to ensure that we maintain a competitive edge…This includes reinforcing extended and integrated deterrence, improving information and cyber security, deepening cooperation in space, cyber and emerging technologies, and coordinating on bilateral planning for contingencies.”

The U.S. State Department maintains that The U.S.-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of U.S. security interests in Asia and is fundamental to regional stability and prosperity. The Alliance is based on shared vital interests and values, including: the maintenance of stability in the Indo-Pacific region: the preservation and promotion of political and economic freedoms; support for human rights and democratic institutions; and, the expansion of prosperity for the people of both countries and the international community as a whole.

Key regional actors are also enhancing defense cooperation with Tokyo. A Wall Street Journal report  disclosed that Australia would deepen defense cooperation with Japan. The two nations will train in Australia’s north, “the latest move by U.S. allies to respond to strategic tensions with China.”

The massive purchase of F-35 fighter jets will dramatically improve Japan’s military capabilities. Tokyo spends more on defense than just eight other nations.  Despite the continued existence of Article 9 of the nation’s “Peace Constitution,” the nations armed forces, which represent about 1% of GDP (amid calls to double that figure) are increasingly modern and capable.

The need is clear.  In addition to China, threatening actions by North Korea and Russia continue to seek to bully the nation. Moscow and Beijing have cooperated in joint naval maneuvers that clearly target Japanese and American interests in the area.

The many changes in the U.S. voting system, and the various controversies that surround balloting in the current environment, require an a closer examination.

The National Bureau of Economic Research has found that claims about voter ID limiting minority participation are wrong.” U.S. states increasingly require identification to vote …we find that the laws have no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation. These results hold through a large number of specifications.”

The Atlanta Constitution-Journal has found that Despite a voter ID law, minority turnout is up in Georgia, contrary to massive claims to the contrary. Elections data reviewed by the AJC show that participation among black voters rose by 44 percent from 2006 — before the law was implemented — to 2010. For Hispanics, the increase for the same period was 67 percent. Turnout among whites rose 12 percent.

Other studies concur in the conclusion that “voter ID laws don’t “suppress” anyone’s vote. This latest study echoes the conclusion of others…finding that voter ID laws don’t reduce voter turnout, including among African-Americans and Hispanics. These voters were just as likely to vote in states requiring photo identification as in those that don’t.”

There are changes that have had a significant impact impact.  Studies by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission reveal that “The total number of voters who voted early, absentee or by mail more than doubled from 24.9 million in 2004 to 57.2 million in 2016, representing an increase from one in five of all ballots cast to two in five of all ballots cast. The number of U.S. citizens voting early more than doubled from nearly 10.2 million early ballots cast in 2004 to 24.1 million early ballots cast in 2016. In 2016, 16 states showed a combined percentage of greater than 50 percent of votes cast early, by mail, or via absentee voting.

A Heritage Study by John Lott warns that “Early voting is a ‘reform’ that states should reconsider. Its disadvantages seem to outweigh its benefits. While early voting may seem more convenient, it appears to have the opposite effect of what its proponents sought… it seems obvious that early voting increases the already skyrocketing cost of political campaigns.”

An equally and perhaps more important issue concerns the information voters rely on to cast their ballots.

Unfortunately, much reporting is clearly biased. While both Democrats and Republicans can both point to sources biased for or against them, most media outlets tend to favor the left.

Indeed, there is substantive evidence that a left-biased Department of Justice pressured Facebook to censor the Hunter Biden Laptop story.  Doing so many have altered the outcome of the 2020 election.

In reviewing just one race used as an example, The Washington Examiner found that  87% of GOP coverage was negative.

Beyond the quality of information, the growth of early voting has enhanced the lack of information voters may have available, particularly those who cast votes before candidate debates take place.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman suffered a disastrous debate loss against his GOP rival. Reporter Joel Pollak   found that “Nearly half of all vote-by-mail ballots in Pennsylvania had already been cast before [the] U.S. Senate debate, which was judged a disaster — even by Democrats — after Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), recovering from a stroke, struggled to form coherent sentences.”

The ease of casting a ballot by mail, internet, or in month-long voting periods increases the number of those participating in elections.  However, it also encourages those with only a casual interest in the issues or the candidates to give their support without adequate research or before all the information is available.

Almost a century ago, Franklin D. Roosevelt worried that “Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely.”

Illustration: Pennsylvania official govt. site

Dictators like to dictate. Chinese President Xi Jinping is no different than other historical figures who used tyranny to control their country’s population. Although some are referred to in books more benevolently than others, a leader who represses the population will likely face a time when the political system he commands waivers in its support of the government’s harsh policies limiting freedom. The “color revolutions,” that once erupted in response to harsh Soviet, Eurasian, and Middle East dictatorships, may soon be making an appearance in China. It seems Xi’s star is beginning to dim after a series of bad economic decisions, loss of public confidence in the government and CCP, and world condemnation over China’s role in the Covid pandemic.

“A storm is brewing,” according to Roger Garside a former British diplomat and author of China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom.” He predicts that 2023 will be the year that breaks Xi. He argues that if he is correct, “…it will destroy President Xi Jinping, and bring an end to the political system he is determined to defend.” He is not alone in his assessment. Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, concurs that lately the wave of protests in China has “smelled of a color revolution.” When discussing the Chinese protests with journalists he talked about the “blank sheets” of paper held up by protesters. In an acknowledgment that the placards are symbolic of the population’s inability to speak freely, he reminded reporters that “White is a color, too.” It is not, however, the first time the CCP faced challenges from the citizenry or others inside the government. 

During the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstration, the head the political section at the Chinese Embassy in Washington was sympathetic to the protesters. His son, by birth part of the political elite, participated in the Tiananmen Square protest. The Chinese government is accused of killing thousands who refused to leave the Square. From behind the white curtains hanging on each side of the front door of the Embassy in Washington, diplomatic hands would appear waiving to the media and American public outside. They were small, but brave, acts of defiance. Thirty-three years ago, China was less connected to the world. The Internet was not widespread inside China and students were restricted in the overseas studies. The global supply chain today has changed as anyone who purchases electronics knows. China is intricately linked to the West. The storm brewing in Beijing today is in part a response to the failed response to the COVID epidemic, an economy that is struggling, and a loss of faith in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). 

Without the “mandate from Heaven,” the CCP is facing a crisis that Garside says marks that beginning of a white revolution. Xi’s recent relaxation and then abandonment of COVID restrictions comes at a very high health and political cost to the regime. Although the strategy has temporarily appeased the public, it revealed a weakness never seen before in the communist regime. The CCP historically is concerned that human rights or other protests could morph into anti-regime sentiment able to threaten the legitimacy of Party rule.

According to Garside, “Never before in the history of the People’s Republic has there been such a manifestation of weakness in the face of public demand.” In response to public demands Xi ordered the lifting of restrictions. He did so, however, without a plan in place to prepare for additional vaccinations, psychological support for the citizenry, or the strengthening of the country’s public health system. Protesters called the regime’s initial restrictions undeserved punishment and suggested that it exposed the inhumanity of the regime.

No freedom of speech is permitted that criticizes the failings of the government, the CCP leadership or the Party. In relaxing health restrictions without adequate planning Xi is walking a narrowing path.

The Party is covering up health data by suppressing the number of cases and COVID deaths. It indicates a grave loss of authority for the communist dictator. As of December, the wait at the crematoria in Beijing is passing five days. By the end of March, some analysts are predicting demand for ICU beds will be ten times the available supply. At the same time as China is experiencing spikes in COVID cases, it also faces mounting economic problems. Domestically the property sector is faltering, local-government-finances are beginning to collapse and there is no abatement in the slow-moving financial crisis. Internationally, trade is weakening with rising unemployment at home. Without a sufficient welfare system in place to support the population through this period, increased unrest could lead to a destabilization of the government and CCP. Xi’s policies are proving counterproductive and alienating the support of those he needs to remain in power. Garside says that “In place of hope, there is disillusion as manifested by a major movement of emigration that is being led, for the first time in history, by rich and power people.” Some young protesters, like Xi’s own daughter, have chosen not to return to China after studying in the United States. It portends an uncertain future for Xi and the CCP. Today, there are a billion mobile phones in China, unlike the 1989 period where the government was able to successfully repress those protesting in Tiananmen Square.

It will be almost impossible for the world not to hear the call for freedom this time. It represents a glimmer of hope for the future and marks a dangerous period in Chinese domestic politics that could lead to new calls by the CCP for repression against those who refuse to accept the legitimacy of the Party.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, and has lived in China.

Photo: On December 23, President Xi Jinping met in Zhongnanhai with Lee Ka-chao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, who came to Beijing to report on his work. Xi has abandoned all promises regarding civil rights in Hong Kong. (Chinese govt. photo)

A number of far-right and far-left commentators have come into agreement on the issue of Ukraine. Both are wrong.  

On the left, commentators bemoan the use of taxpayer funds to purchase military equipment. They worry about America “imposing” its values on other nations.  On the right, an allergy to any new federal spending, combines with a (rather justified) concern that politicians may get some personal kickbacks from all those dollars.  They also frequently state that we shouldn’t worry about protecting another nation’s borders until we secure our own. 

Those concerns, however good or bad, ignore the danger to the rest of the world a Putin victory in Ukraine would produce.

It is more than obvious that a Russian victory in the current invasion would encourage aggressors across the planet. China’s plans to take over Taiwan and smaller potential conflicts across the planet would all be greenlighted if Moscow succeeds. 

The authoritative United States Naval Institute noted that Russian President Vladmir Putin is “an international criminal, and we need to be saying this as forcefully as the United States condemned the leader of Serbia as responsible for the bloody Balkan wars during the 1990s…”

Vladimir Putin, who was a career KGB agent, has made no secret of his nostalgia for the Soviet Empire. He is not shy about his desire to reconstitute, in some form, the now defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Ukraine is merely the first step in that process. During the Obama Administration, Putin noted the weakness of that White House, and unblushingly invaded the Crimea portion of Ukraine.    During that same presidency, China invaded the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone, a move condemned by the World Court at the Hague.  Obama didn’t even issue a diplomatic protest. Putin waited until another weak White House, led by Obama’s Vice President, was in place until he attempted to complete his conquest of Ukraine.

Forgotten in all this is the obligation to protect Ukrainian sovereignty that was made when that nation voluntarily surrendered the nuclear weapons it possessed following the Soviet Union’s collapse.  As noted in published sources,  “After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine held about one third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, the third largest in the world at the time, as well as significant means of its design and production. 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 warheads remained on Ukrainian territory. On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state.”

Critics of America’s assistance to Ukraine conveniently forget that we have a treaty obligation to live up to.

Zelenskyy made an impassioned plea for continued American assistance during his December visit to Washington, and noted that more than just Ukraine is at stake. “Today the Ukrainian people are defending not only Ukraine. We are fighting for Europe and the world and our lives in the name of the future. That is why today the American people are helping not just Ukraine, but Europe and the world to keep the planet alive. To keep justice in history.”

The failure of the world to stop aggression in the 1930’s is quoted so often that it sounds like a cliché, but it is a very real concern.  Putin already has designs on Kazakhstan, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and other nations. It would be far better to stop him now before a far wider and even more deadly conflict takes place.

Illustration: Pixabay

The one thing Americans can agree on is that the nation is seriously divided.  Differences in politics and philosophy have existed since 1776. Why, then, do we seem more at odds than at any time, barring only the Civil War?

The answer lies not in politics, but in the intentional perpetuation, by sloppy journalists, biased educators and partisan extremists, of utterly incorrect information.

The nation’s economy, energy grid, and transportation nexus are being detrimentally affected by actions in response to allegations that the planet is heating up to unprecedented levels due to man-made global warming.  The facts suggest otherwise. The world was warmer when the Caesar’s ruled Rome, and when the Norman conquest of England took place.   In more recent times, look at the temperatures in the 1930’s.  As a matter of fact, some solar scientists predict a cooling trend due to solar activity levels.The Greenland Ice Cap is not shrinking, it’s growing.  Ditto for Antarctica ice.

For a significant period of time, U.S. cities were besieged by Antifa and Black Lives Matter.  These radical groups insisted that systemic racism plagues the nation.  In reality, they could not point to any existing laws or regulations that supported their claim. They alleged that police targeted minorities for killing. Any reasonable analysis of the facts demonstrates otherwise. Citing an example of an extremely isolated incident was an intellectually dishonest move. In a recent interview, Larry Elders, a former California Gubernatorial candidate and a black man, blames race-baiting leftist politicians such as Barack Obama for creating needless racial tension.

Paul Crookston, writing for National Review, reports that “A study by the Crime Prevention Research Center’s John R. Lott Jr. and economist Carlisle E. Moody at the College of William and Mary finds that white police officers may be less likely than their black counterparts to use deadly force against black suspects. This study has not received much attention in the media…”

We frequently hear that the Pentagon budget consumes the lion’s share of federal spending.  In reality, The Pentagon budget accounts for about 14% of federal spending. We are told that the U.S. spends vastly more than all its adversaries combined. Not true!  A major military analysis website  reports that “…the gap between U.S. expenditure on the one hand and that of Russia and China on the other has closed dramatically over the past 15 years. Today, when taken together, spending by Russia and China is roughly equal to U.S. defense expenditure.”

As crime skyrockets throughout the nation, we are fed nonsensical lines that releasing criminals out of jails or eliminating bail for violent offenders makes our streets safer. A Manhattan Institute study proves otherwise. “Slashing the prison population … would require releasing significant numbers of violent and chronic offenders serving time for crimes that most Americans agree should lead to prison. Reducing or eliminating sentences would diminish the incapacitation benefits of incarceration and, given the extremely high rates of recidivism, would expose society to large numbers of people likely to commit more crimes…60% of state prisoners are serving time for murder, rape, assault, robbery, or burglary—four times the number convicted only of drug offenses…Despite the portion of prisoners in for serious and violent offenses, less than 15% of state felony convictions result in more than two years served in prison; even 20% of those imprisoned for murder, and nearly 60% of those imprisoned for rape or sexual assault, serve less than five years of their sentences.”

The response by advocates of false doctrines and failed ideas has frequently been to attempt to censor those bringing the facts to light. Various modes of silencing have been employed, from universities firing conservative professors to the federal government’s attempt under both Presidents Obama and Biden to establish agencies to silence critics.  But the dismal result of failed policies cannot be hidden for long.

Illustration: Pixabay