Month: April 2022

What do submarines, volleyballs, and North Korean nuclear missiles have in common? Personnel are back on the job at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility, according to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Victor Cha, and Jennifer Jun of the Center for Strategic and International Security (CSIS). They can be seen in satellite imagery playing volleyball outside their labs and the administration building last Tuesday as they did in 2017 when the nuclear program was active. The test site is located in the mountains 2 miles west of the Hwasong Concentration Camp in the northeastern part of the country. The Punggye-ri facility has served as a test site since 2006 when North Korea detonated its first nuclear bomb. 

Western analysts now expect North Korea may conduct a seventh nuclear test as early as next month. The decision will be up to President Kim Jong-un. Current satellite imagery indicates that preparations are well underway [for a nuclear test] and should not be discounted as insignificant activity,” according to an April CSIS report.  It suggests the North’s nuclear program is again very active after five quiet years. There are signs of construction of new buildings, the movement of lumber, and additional equipment and supplies being stored outside the new entrance to Tunnel No. 3 and nearby areas.

Since President Biden assumed office, the North Korean regime also has ramped up other areas of research, including 13 ballistic missile tests. Kim has the goal of achieving a “credible, survivable nuclear weapons delivery system that can target the US homeland,” according to Victor Cha  and Fraser Katz, writing in a CSIS commentary on Friday. In January Kim Jong-un delivered remarks to the Eighth Party Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in which he openly mentioned in detail that he intends to perfect the guidance technology for a multi-warhead rocket. Kim also stated at the time that the regime was working to attain an advanced capability for making a preemptive and retaliatory nuclear strike by further raising the rate of precision to “pinpoint accuracy.” Kim announced at the Congress that North Korea also is developing  “solid-fuel engine-propelled intercontinental underwater and ground ballistic rockets.” 

Earlier this week during a military parade in Pyongyang, Kim spoke about the increase in strength of the country’s nuclear forces both in terms of quality and scale.  Cha and Katz point out that the tenor of the speech this week may be an indication of a shift in the North’s nuclear doctrine, as Kim noted that “our nukes can never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent” and they may be used in an “unexpected second mission” if outsiders violate the North’s “fundamental interests.” There has been little pushback or condemnation of the North as countries in the Western democratic world are concentrating on ongoing kinetic warfare in Ukraine.  It also is possible that Kim Jong-un primarily is using the nuclear program to boost his support at home. Advances in the country’s technology have eliminated the need for foreign assistance. New developments could give him a public victory with only the threat of a launch.

Satellite imagery from North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard also is showing signs of unusual activity as well. This is the location of the 8.24 Yongung (August 24th Hero) experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA). Currently it is within the secure boat basin under a submersible missile test stand with a small harbor tug tied up alongside. Analysts suspect that the 8.24 Yongung submarine plays a critical role in the under-way development of SLBMs, ballistic missile submarine technology, and operational procedures.  While moving the SSBA around the shipyard could be part of a strategic deception campaign, CSIS suggests it is more likely due to modification and repair work. 

Although the submarine- launch ballistic missile program is not as far along as the country’s ground-launched, multiple reentry vehicle missile research, it could provide North Korea a second leg in a nuclear triad. The final leg, an air-launched nuclear cruise missile, is not close to the capability required for actual use, according to Cha and Katz. They conclude that Kim is just “one launcher shy of being able to saturate the existing US national missile defense system” based on recent US disclosures by technical experts. Kim is picking up the tempo. If the nuclear program develops effective countermeasures, it could further complicate the picture for Washington. Kim has rebuffed the Biden Administration’s offer to meet without preconditions. No one is sure what comes next after the volleyball game ends.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Although dramatic and intense events are unfolding by the hour in the Russian war in Ukraine, the US cannot afford to take its eyes off of the other bad boy in the international community. China continues to push up the global threat level from its intensifying military collaboration with Iran to its aggressive efforts in the Solomon Islands in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. 

Earlier this week Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe visited the Iranian capital for discussions with Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri concerning expanding the ties between the two countries’ militaries.  “In today’s meeting with the Chinese Minister of Defense, it was agreed to develop bilateral cooperation in the field of holding exercises, exchange of experiences, training issues and other common fields between the armed forces of the two countries so that we can provide better security for the regions under our control,” Bagheri said. China joined Iran and Russia in joint naval exercises in 2019 and again earlier this year just prior to the start of the war in Ukraine. But China is not only actively pursuing its military relationships in the Middle East/Persia, it also is continuing to push the boundaries of its influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Last week China signed a formal security cooperation agreement with the Solomon Islands. If China gets a toehold there, it could lead to military ship visits, a naval base, and further militarization of the Indo-Pacific region. A version of the document leaked last month indicates that China intends “help maintain order,” according to John Ruwitch of NPR. This could include sending in Chinese soldiers, conducting military training, and naval ship visits. The Solomon Islands are slightly over 2,000 miles from Australia. The leaked draft of the bilateral cooperation document raises serious concerns for Australian officials who believe a Chinese military base would allow Beijing to project power further into the Pacific and pose a potential threat to Australian national security interests. 

China is a strategic, patient, long-term planner that has been active behind-the-scenes for several years in the Solomon Islands. Beijing first provided the country economic assistance. It then turned that aid into a diplomatic cache followed by the signing of the security agreement in April. China has repeated this pattern in many countries where it seeks to constrain the United States’ influence or to improve Beijing’s image or military position. The geopolitical location of the Islands places it squarely between the US and its allies in the area and near key commercial shipping lanes. Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who is up for re-election, is a strong supporter improving relations with China.  The Biden Administration in Washington reacted to the situation this week when Daniel Kritenbrink, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said on Monday: “We have respect for the Solomon Islands’ sovereignty, but we also wanted to let them know that if steps were taken [by China] to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power projection capabilities or a military installation, then we would have significant concerns and we would very naturally respond to those concerns.” Typical of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy, the announcement to reporters contained no details on how Washington would change the direction of the Solomon’s away from the Chinese security orbit. Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Kritenbrink traveled to the Honiara last week in reaction to the announced agreement and to attempt to reverse the impression that the United States is in retreat across the Indo-Pacific at a time when security concerns in the area are swelling due to Chinese belligerence. Michael Ausin of the Hoover Institution points out in Politico that is going to be difficult for the US to make up for years of neglect. The Clinton Administration closed the US Embassy in in the Solomon Islands in 1993. Auslin suggests giving Sogavare whatever he wants to block China’s advances. To date, Sogavare has refused to release details of the security cooperation document to officials in Washington. China is a strategic player and likely timed the signing when it knew Washington was busy responding to the kinetic conflict in Europe. If the Solomon’s Prime Minister is playing “the China card” with the Biden Administration, it is a dangerous game with long-term consequences for the region.

Photo: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (R) meets with visiting Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe in Tehran, capital of Iran, on April 27, 2022. (mod.gov.cn/Photo by Li Xiaowei)

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, specializing in China

The time is approaching when Western democratic leaders may need to initiate a discussion of what an acceptable “new Russia” will look like in the coming years. Those versed in the geopolitical history of the Russian empire will recognize a picture that is emerging this week in the zones of conflict inside Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” is  active in areas of the country that, if successfully added to the modern Russian Federation, will resemble the territorial boundaries of the Russian Empire. President Vladimir Putin is proving himself to be a modern-day Czar whose stated war aims include threats of nuclear confrontation if anyone opposes his territorial ambitions. The term “new Russia” was used when the Donbas region and the territory along the Azov and Black Seas were part of the Empire. The Russian president has long spoken of revitalizing the glory of the Empire. Recent statements by Putin and other high-ranked government officials in Moscow this week appear to indicate that the Russian president is willing to secure his vision with the use of nuclear weapons. 

Despite the massive failure of Russian forces to take Kyiv and northern Ukraine, soldiers are regrouping for new offensives in the south and eastern portions of Ukraine. These regions are Russian speaking areas that were conquered by the Empire in the late 18th century. Three hundred years ago Russia recognized the value of holding land along the Black Sea. “During the reign of Catherine the Great, Russian settlers colonized the area, and new cities were founded to cement Russian rule there. Several of those towns, such as Mariupol and Kherson, have seen brutal fighting during Russia’s most recent invasion. The Donbass… became a major industrial center for the Russian Empire and beyond,” according to Hayden Daniel writing in The Daily Caller. 

If Putin has determined he cannot conquer all of Ukraine, he could revamp his plans and potentially achieve his objective by taking only the area along the Black Sea coast down to the city of Odessa. A revitalized “new Russia” could provide the buffer zone Putin says he is seeking to separate his country from that of NATO Members. What is he willing to do to achieve it? Second, Putin argues that he wants to protect Russian speakers inside Ukrainian territory. About 70% of the population in eastern Ukraine, in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, speak Russian. The front lines of the conflict in the south and east are starting to match up with the areas containing a majority who speak Russian as their primary language. 

After the 2014 conflict in Crimea, separatists proclaimed The Federal State of New Russia. Putin may decide, since the war is not going well for him, that taking these areas along the Black Sea and declaring them part of “New Russia” will be enough to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the Russian people. A peace treaty could end up ceding New Russia to Putin as either a puppet state or reincorporate it into Russia itself. If this is the least acceptable outcome for Putin, the question becomes — what is the Russian President willing to achieve it? He escalated the threat level with his rhetoric recently when he warned the US and NATO not to interfere with his special military operation or risk nuclear confrontation. This is not new to Russian military minds. Last fall a former member of the Russian Security Council, Andrei Kokoshin, along with Aleksandr Shlyakhturov who served as former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff, wrote an article on nuclear deterrence and escalation in which they stated “The core of convincing strategic deterrence in Russia’s national security policy has been and remains a demonstration of the ability, under any—[even] the most unfavorable— conditions to carry out a retaliatory [nuclear] strike with catastrophic consequences for the aggressor… Political-military deterrence may also be accompanied by the threat of other harsh political and economic measures against the ‘opponent’ even before the threshold of the use of the Armed Forces. Many theorists and practitioners of deterrence have rightly noted and continue to note that for effective deterrence, the threat must look plausible. At the same time, the credibility of such a threat depends on the risks and costs that the deterrent may have in demonstrating such a threat”” Roger McDermott, of the Jamestown Foundation, points out this week that “This has been at play since February 24.” 

The Russian authors suggest that as Russia moves up the nuclear ladder toward a launch, the options not to use a nuclear weapon narrow and the level becomes one where “one or more parties begin to consider the practical possibility of using nuclear weapons.” They also suggest that once a nuclear launch is considered it is very difficult for Russia to de-escalate the situation since doing so could lead to an expanded conventional war. If the US and the West enter the conflict and Putin views nuclear confrontation as his only means to achieve a limited objective in recreating “New Russia,” the world may be looking at a direct nuclear clash. While Russia still has many avenues left to avoid using a nuclear weapon, the West must be prepared as Putin has stated that his philosophy is like that of a rat he once saw trapped in a corner as a child – it was willing fight until its own the death. He is like that rat.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. and teaches at a major university.

Illustration: Russian ASAT test (Leiber Institute, West Point)

The U.S. State Department has released its latest report on terrorism. This is the final installment of the overview prepared by John T. Godfrey Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

Another major line of effort for 2020 was to strengthen partner capabilities to detect, disrupt, and dismantle terrorist networks. The United States supported governments on the front lines against terrorist threats in critical areas, including information sharing, aviation and border security, law enforcement capacity building, and countering the financing of terrorism. To restrict terrorist travel, the United States signed seven arrangements either with new partner countries or new agencies in existing partner countries, under Homeland Security Presidential Directive/HSPD-6, to share information on known and suspected terrorists, bringing the total number of partner countries to 78. The Personal Identification Secure Comparison and Evaluation System (known as PISCES) border security platform grew to include 227 ports of entry in 24 countries, with international partners using it to screen hundreds of thousands of travelers each day.

The United States continued to emphasize to its partners — both publicly and privately — the critical responsibility of governments engaged in counterterrorism operations to ensure that their security forces respect international human rights and humanitarian law and hold their security forces accountable for violations and abuses committed against civilians during these operations.

The United States also engaged with multilateral organizations, including the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Hedayah, to advance U.S. counterterrorism priorities, bolster partner capacity to implement international obligations and commitments, and promote greater burden sharing among key partners. The United States partnered with the United Kingdom and the International Institute of Justice and Rule of Law to launch a new REMVE-focused initiative that gathered more than 40 practitioners and subject-matter experts from 15 countries and nine international organizations to share best practices and identify concrete steps to confront this threat more effectively. In September the 30-member Global Counterterrorism Forum adopted two important framework documents focused on strengthening coordination between national-level and local-level efforts to counter violent extremism and enhance criminal justice responses at the nexus of terrorism and organized crime.

The United States engaged a host of international partners — from governments to local religious leaders and tech companies — to prevent and counter violent extremism, both online and offline. The Department of State supported international initiatives, including the Strong Cities Network and the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund, and focused on building local resiliency to terrorist radicalization and recruitment misinformation and disinformation, most recently through funded programs in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Kenya, Somalia, the Philippines, the Sahel, and the Western Balkans. The United States also integrated countermessaging strategies with critical stakeholder partners, including the tech sector. For example, the Department of State engaged with U.S.-based technology companies in 2020, after designating RIM as an SDGT. In response, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Google/YouTube subsequently decided to remove RIM accounts and content from their platforms. In addition, the United States enhanced efforts through the Global Internet Forum to Counterterrorism to support voluntary collaboration with technology companies to deter terrorist access to their platforms.

This brief overview of the United States’ ongoing work to protect our people and our allies from the ongoing threat of terrorism reflects the breadth and depth of our efforts.

Photo: Pixabay

The U.S. State Department has released its latest report on terrorism. This is Part 2 of the overview prepared by John T. Godfrey Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

The global COVID-19 pandemic complicated the terrorist landscape, creating both challenges and opportunities for terrorist groups. While the pandemic disrupted terrorist travel, financing, and operations, terrorist groups adapted their approaches and appeals, using the internet to continue radicalizing others to violence and inspiring attacks worldwide. ISIS exploited the crisis to reinforce violent extremist narratives, proclaiming to followers that the virus was “God’s wrath upon the West.” AQ affiliate al-Shabaab demonstrated an ability to raise and manage substantial resources. Al-Shabaab also engaged in disinformation campaigns to exacerbate COVID-19-related grievances and undermine trust in the Government of Somalia. REMVE actors used the pandemic to incite violence, advocating for followers to actively spread the virus to members of religious or racial minority groups. The pandemic posed additional risks to some U.S. partners, who were less able to focus on counterterrorism efforts and other national security issues given the immediate need to address the COVID-19 crisis.

Amid this diverse and dynamic threat landscape, the United States played an important role in marshaling international efforts to counter global terrorism. In 2020 the United States led the UN Security Council’s 1267 Sanctions Committee’s efforts to designate ISIS affiliates in West Africa, the Greater Sahara, Libya, Yemen, and Indonesia and assign designations to Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-Mawla, the new ISIS leader, and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan leader Noor Wali Mehsud. In November the United States and Nigeria co-hosted the first Defeat-ISIS Coalition meeting on combating ISIS threats across West Africa and the Sahel. At this meeting, Mauritania announced its membership in the Defeat-ISIS Coalition, becoming its 83rd member and the 13th from sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the United States continued high-level diplomatic engagement to counter Hizballah across Central America, South America, and Europe. In January the United States participated in the third Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial in Bogota, Colombia — a high-level process launched by the United States in 2018 to confront terrorist threats in the region. This ministerial has been critical in advancing U.S. efforts against Hizballah, with five South and Central American countries recognizing the group as a unitary terrorist organization in the last several years. In 2020, Germany also banned Hizballah domestically with numerous other European governments, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovenia, following suit with steps of its own.

The United States continued to play a major role in the repatriation, rehabilitation, reintegration, and prosecution of ISIS foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and family members. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have detained about 2,000 non-Syrian and non-Iraqi fighters who remain in Syria. In addition, there are roughly 5,000 Syrian and 2,000 Iraqi fighters in SDF custody. Tens of thousands of FTF family members, primarily women and children, remain in displaced persons’ camps in Syria. To ensure that ISIS fighters and family members captured by the SDF never return to the battlefield, the United States continued to lead by example in bringing back its citizens and prosecuting them when appropriate. As of December, the United States had repatriated 28 U.S. citizens from Syria and Iraq — 12 adults and 16 children — and the Department of Justice charged 10 of the adults with a variety of terrorism-related crimes.

The United States also urged countries of origin to repatriate, rehabilitate, reintegrate, and, where appropriate, prosecute their fighters and associated family members. The U.S. government also assisted several countries in doing so with their citizens or nationals. Additionally, in October, the United States supported the United Kingdom in the transfer of Alexandra Amon Kotey and El Shafee Elsheikh, two of the four ISIS militant fighters known as the “Beatles,” to the United States for prosecution. The two individuals were charged for their involvement in a hostagetaking scheme that caused the deaths of four U.S. citizens, as well as the deaths of British and Japanese nationals, in Syria.

The report concludes tomorrow

Photo: Pixabay

The U.S. State Department has released its latest report on terrorism. This is Part 1 of the three-part overview prepared by John T. Godfrey Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

During 2020 the United States and its partners made significant major strides against terrorist organizations; however, the terrorism threat has become more geographically dispersed in regions around the world. Together with international partners, the United States has responded to the evolving threat, including by expanding the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, which now counts 83 members. The Defeat-ISIS Coalition worked to consolidate gains in Iraq and Syria, while broadening efforts to counter the growing ISIS threat in West Africa and the Sahel. In March the United States designated the new leader of ISIS, Amir Muhammad Sa’id AbdalRahman al-Mawla, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). U.S.-led military operations in 2020 resulted in the deaths of Qassim al-Rimi, the emir of al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and of senior al-Qa’ida (AQ) leaders in Syria. The United States continued to address threats posed by state-sponsored terrorism, sanctioning Iran-supported groups such as Iraq-based Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Bahrain-based Saraya al-Mukhtar. Nine countries across the Western Hemisphere and Europe took significant steps in 2020 to designate, ban, or otherwise restrict Hizballah — following the lead of four other governments that took similar actions the previous year. Reflecting the growing threat from racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE), the Department of State also designated a white supremacist terrorist organization for the first time in 2020, imposing sanctions against the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) and three of its leaders in April.

Despite important counterterrorism successes, terrorist groups remained a persistent and pervasive threat worldwide. Although ISIS lost all the territory it had seized in Iraq and Syria, the organization and its branches continued to mount a worldwide terrorism campaign, carrying out deadly attacks globally. Illustrating the evolving threat, ISIS affiliates outside Iraq and Syria caused more fatalities during 2020 than in any previous year. ISIS maintained an active presence and low-level insurgency in Iraq and Syria, with increased attacks in both countries during the first half of 2020. In South and Southeast Asia, ISIS radicalized individuals to violence, inspiring them to conduct attacks. In Africa, ISIS-affiliated groups increased the volume and lethality of their attacks across West Africa, the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, and northern Mozambique. Deaths attributable to ISIS-affiliated attacks in West Africa alone almost doubled from around 2,700 in 2017 to nearly 5,000 in 2020. In Mozambique, an estimated 1,500 deaths were due to ISIS-Mozambique attacks.

In 2020 the United States and its partners continued to battle AQ and its affiliates around the world. The organization faced significant leadership losses with the elimination of Abdelmalek. Droukdel, the emir of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and AQ’s number two, Abu Muhammad al-Masri. Yet, AQ’s networks continued to exploit undergoverned spaces, conflict zones, and security gaps in the Middle East to acquire terrorist resources and conduct terrorist attacks. AQ further bolstered its presence abroad, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, where AQ affiliates AQAP, al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa, and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin in the Sahel remain among the most active and dangerous terrorist groups in the world. In January 2020, al-Shabaab attacked a military base shared by U.S. and Kenyan military forces in Manda Bay, Kenya, killing one U.S. servicemember and two U.S. contractors. This incident marked the deadliest terrorist attack against U.S. military forces in Africa since 2017.

Iran continued to support acts of terrorism regionally and globally during 2020. Regionally, Iran supported proxies and partner groups in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, including Hizballah and Hamas. Senior AQ leaders continued to reside in Iran and facilitate terrorist operations from there. Globally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force remained the primary Iranian actors involved in supporting terrorist recruitment, financing, and plots across Europe, Africa, and Asia, and both Americas.

The REMVE threat also continued to expand rapidly, including growing transnational links between REMVE actors around the world. The UN Security Council’s Counterterrorism Committee noted a 320 percent increase in “extreme right-wing terrorism” globally in the five years preceding 2020. White supremacist, anti-government, violent conspiracy theorist, and like-minded individuals and groups targeted perceived enemies and conducted deadly attacks around the world. U.S.-based REMVE actors have communicated with and traveled abroad to engage in person with foreign REMVE actors. In February, a racially motivated violent extremist in Hanau, Germany, shot nine patrons in two shisha bars and then returned home to shoot his mother and finally himself, underscoring the recent surge in violence by REMVE actors.

The report continues tomorrow.

Photo: Pixabay

Text of Executive Summary: The Russian Federation has a highly centralized, authoritarian political system dominated by President Vladimir Putin.  The bicameral Federal Assembly consists of a directly elected lower house (State Duma) and an appointed upper house (Federation Council), both of which lack independence from the executive.  The 2018 presidential election and the September 19 State Duma elections were marked by accusations of government interference and manipulation of the electoral process, including the exclusion of meaningful opposition candidates.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs, Federal Security Service, Investigative Committee, Office of the Prosecutor General, and National Guard are responsible for law enforcement.  The Federal Security Service is responsible for state security, counterintelligence, and counterterrorism, as well as for fighting organized crime and corruption.  The national police force, under the Ministry of Internal Affairs, is responsible for combating all crime.  The National Guard assists the Federal Security Service’s Border Guard Service in securing borders, administers gun control, combats terrorism and organized crime, protects public order, and guards important state facilities.  The National Guard also participates in armed defense of the country’s territory in coordination with Ministry of Defense forces.  Except in rare cases, security forces generally report to civilian authorities.  National-level civilian authorities maintained, at best, limited control over security forces in the Republic of Chechnya, which are accountable only to the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov.  There were credible reports that members of the Russian security forces committed numerous human rights abuses.

The country’s occupation and purported annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula continued to affect the human rights situation there significantly and negatively.  The Russian government continued to arm, train, lead, and fight alongside Russia-led separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.  Authorities also conducted politically motivated arrests, detentions, and trials of Ukrainian citizens in Russia, many of whom claimed to have been tortured (see Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for Ukraine). Significant human rights issues included credible reports of:  extrajudicial killings and attempted extrajudicial killings, including of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex persons in Chechnya by local government authorities; enforced disappearances by or on behalf of government authorities; pervasive torture by government law enforcement officers that sometimes resulted in death and occasionally involved sexual violence or punitive psychiatric incarceration; harsh and life-threatening conditions in prisons; arbitrary arrest and detention; political and religious prisoners and detainees; politically motivated reprisals against individuals located outside the country; severe arbitrary interference with privacy; severe suppression of freedom of expression and media, including violence against journalists and the use of “antiextremism” and other laws to prosecute peaceful dissent and religious minorities; severe restrictions on internet freedom; severe suppression of the freedom of peaceful assembly; severe suppression of freedom of association, including overly restrictive laws on “foreign agents” and “undesirable foreign organizations”; severe restrictions of religious freedom; refoulement of refugees; inability of citizens to change their government peacefully through free and fair elections; severe limits on participation in the political process, including restrictions on opposition candidates’ ability to seek public office and conduct political campaigns, and on the ability of civil society to monitor election processes; widespread corruption at all levels and in all branches of government; serious government restrictions on and harassment of domestic and international human rights organizations; lack of investigation of and accountability for gender-based violence and violence against women; trafficking in persons; crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting persons with disabilities, members of ethnic and religious minorities, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex, and queer person

Leaking information strategically is an area of expertise in which the Chinese regime excels. This week, while most military analysts were busy deciphering events in Russia’s war in Ukraine, Beijing cold-launched a new, anti-ship ballistic missile that appears to be a game-changer in the overall development of Chinese naval weapons systems and spread video images across the Internet. Unlike the country’s standard land-based, anti-ship ballistic missile capabilities, China’s advanced PLAN Type 055 destroyer appears capable of launching this new missile from the close confines of the ship’s Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells. According to the publication, The War Zone, “Layering in even short-range anti-ship ballistic missiles with air-breathing anti-ship cruise missiles would complicate even the most advanced naval adversary’s ability to defend itself.” 

This launch occurred during the same week Washington announced a change in the US’ naval fleet architecture that will impact, according to the US Congressional Research Service, “the given level of overall fleet capability, so as to fit within expected future Navy budgets.” US navy force structure and shipbuilding plans remain vague after the 10-year mark and analysts say the budget plan is unlikely to fully meets US needs. To date, the Navy has not yet submitted an FY2023 30-year (FY2023-FY2052) shipbuilding plan despite statements from the Biden Administration that it will do so. In contrast, China’s President Xi Jinping labels his country’s defense spending a ”top priority” and releases information that point to advances in China’s force strength. The Chinese defense budget this year represents a 7.1% increase in real spending over last year. 

“It is worth noting that a number of very-high-speed Chinese anti-ship cruise missile designs have emerged in recent years,” according to Tyler Rogoway of Defense One. In contrast, the US Navy is investigating whether it is possible to keep some Nimitz-class carrier operational longer to stretch the budget. DOD has yet to accurately define the specifics of its 30-year pipeline of new ships needed to maintain the fleet. 

Earlier this week, another video began circulating on social media sites providing an unprecedented view of a Chinese Xian H-6N bomber carrying an air-launched anti-ship missile (ASBM). The large centerline missile it was carrying appears to be related to the YJ-21 (Eagle Strike 21) ballistic weapon. It is a good indication that Beijing is moving forward with advanced weapons capable of supporting its long-range strategic missions to expand China’s maritime domain while in Washington the US defense budget is seen lagging behind in new technologies and advances in ship-building. The ASBM is part of China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy that can extend China air power approximately 900 miles off shore and provide its PLAAF pilots the option using a “carrier killer” hypersonic missile to attack moving warships at a steep angle of descent that it difficult to repel. Together, this week’s “leaks” by China strongly suggest that that US carrier groups will now need to remain farther from Chinese shores, making US fighter planes useless. What remains uncertain is the quality of China’s targeting capabilities, although US sources estimate that China has been working on the issue for more than a decade. “If China is… pursuing an air-launched hypersonic missile, such as a DF-17 mated to the H-6N, that would parallel similar developments in the United States,” according to Thomas Newdick, writing in “the War Zone.” China’s leadership appears ready to bring key enemy installations within its striking range and is confident enough to let the West know it. Xi Jinping is a strategic thinker and recognizes when and how to manipulate the news to magnify its impact. At a time when political elites and the general citizenry in the West are watching Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine with trepidation, Beijing exhibited technological advances that are likely intended to further challenge US military dominance and increase stress on Western military planners already concerned over Russian actions in Ukraine the speed of advanced military developments in China in recent years. 

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) party seeks to control information technology as a means to shape and censor the communications and opinions of its own people, as well as the communications of individuals beyond China’s borders.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department. She currently teaches at a major university.

The news is filled with horrific images of the physical destruction of Ukraine by Russian troops and missiles. What is missing from the picture is the untold story of the battle inside the cyber and information domains. US intelligence officials have known that the Kremlin has been using “soft” and “hard” tactics to target Ukrainian military, government, and private sites for years. Russia’s attacks on the sovereign nation’s critical infrastructure, including government websites, affiliated organizations, media, and critical financial infrastructure have intensified since the start of President Putin’s current “special military operation,” according to Jamestown Foundation’s Alla Hurka. The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) announced in late March its “cyber units managed to shut down an inter-regional network of five enemy bot farms with the capacity to direct over 100,000 fake social media accounts,” according to Hurka. The Kremlin is using this invisible bot army to support the war in Ukraine with a highly organized and unprecedented disinformation campaign.

One goal of the cyber attacks is to spread disinformation across a wide sector of the Ukrainian population to incite panic and disrupt the country’s effort to combat Russian aggression. Stories include false narratives about Ukraine’s top leadership. A series of fallacious reports suggested President Zelensky fled the country with his family, leaving the citizenry to fend for themselves. Another reportedly provided false data on the morale of Ukrainian troops indicating they were defecting and soon would be defeated by superior Russian forces. Another provided information that Ukraine over-inflated the number of civilians killed in the country. Repeating the pattern casts doubts into the minds of civilians in Ukraine and in other countries, including the United States. Social media accounts also are filled with suggestions by Russian trolls that “the West doesn’t really know what is happening” or the identity of the bad guys. The SSU acknowledged in a recent report that the network is “supervised by the Russian special services, used various social networks, including those banned in Ukraine, to carry out large-scale information sabotage activities to destabilize the socio-political situation in various regions of Ukraine.”

In a physical search of the bot farm sites conducting cyber warfare, law enforcement officers seized numerous pieces of special equipment, including around “100 GMS gateways, 10,000 mobile phone SIM cards of various mobile operators used to disguise the activities of the bot farms, and an unspecified number of computers and laptops used to run cyber operations,” according to the SSU. Three weeks ago, Ukraine eliminated a bot farm that sent 5,000 cellphone text messages to Ukrainian military and law enforcement personnel pushing them to defect and surrender to the Russians. As fast as Ukraine can identify and neutralize a Russian cyber campaign another springs up to replace it. Artem Dekhtyarenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Security Service said “The most interesting thing is that all the equipment was placed in Dnipropetrovsk region, but remotely controlled from the Russian Federation.” 

More than 7,000 cell phones inside Russia are part of Putin’s ongoing disinformation campaign and includes apps such as Telegram, WhatsApp, Facebook, and Viber. The SSU points out in a recent report that one bot farm can create over 10,000 fake social media accounts in a month using Russian domains forbidden in Ukraine, while also conducting attacks on systems of critical infrastructure facilities, sending malware phishing emails and executing distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks on government information resources. Farid Safarov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of energy for digital development, digital transformation, and digitization, estimated that the number of cyberattacks against Ukraine’s energy sector during the first 40 days of the ongoing war exceeded 200,000. Hurka points out that during the week of April 4 alone, there were “approximately 20,000 cybersecurity incidents.” Over 50 of the recorded attacks were directed at Ukraine’s electric supply. In 2021, there were only two such recorded attempts by foreign entities. These attacks aimed to damage high-voltage electrical substations, computers, and networking equipment. 

In response, the Ukrainian government’s Ministry of Digital Transformation and the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy recently created an all volunteer “Internet Army,” which includes an international IT legion of more than 310,000 Ukrainian and foreign IT professionals willing to go to war against Russian’s cyber forces. To join the army, a volunteer goes on Telegram or Discord channels where tasks are assigned. One also can use Viber, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Reddit to help pressure Russian outlets and urge companies to withdraw doing business in Russia. While kinetic warfare rages on the ground in Ukraine, an invisible army is hard at work opposing Putin’s special military operation in cyber space.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. and teaches at a major university

The Biden defense budget ignores the reality of the soaring military threat facing America, warns Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), Lead Republican of the House Armed Services Committee.

The Alabama Republican He emphasized that “Many of us here, regardless of party, believe we should respond with increased investment in the men and women of our armed forces, and the modernization of our conventional and strategic deterrent. Unfortunately, the President doesn’t see things the same way. For the second year in a row, the President sent us a budget that fails to keep pace with China or Russia. And, yet again, it fails to keep pace with inflation. Despite predictions from leading economists that record high inflation will endure, the White House directed the Pentagon to assume a rate of only 2.2 percent in FY23. We’re at 8 percent now. To average 2.2 percent next year, we would require months of unprecedented record low inflation. Everyone knows that’s not going to happen.  That means nearly every dollar of increase in this budget will be eaten by inflation.  Very little if anything will be left over to modernize and grow capability.”

Rogers is joined by Rob Whittman, (R-Va.), who notes that “We are at a critical juncture in our nation’s history; we must decide if the United States will retain its global primacy, or if we will concede our position to the malign intent of Communist China.”

John Donelly, writing for Roll Call, notes that “Stunning and dangerous cuts would result if the Biden defense budget is approved. Despite predictions from leading economists that record high inflation will endure, the White House directed the Pentagon to assume a rate of only 2.2 percent in FY23. We’re at 8 percent now. To average 2.2 percent next year, we would require months of unprecedented record low inflation. Everyone knows that’s not going to happen.  That means nearly every dollar of increase in this budget will be eaten by inflation.  Very little if anything will be left over to modernize and grow capability.”

The Navy would have company in the race to the bottom.  An Army Times analysis found that “Amid a major land war in Europe, the Biden administration’s fiscal 2023 budget request would temporarily shrink the active duty Army to 473,000 troops if enacted by Congress. That could leave the service at its smallest size since 1940, when it had just over 269,000 troops. Other historical lows include an authorized 476,000 in fiscal 2017 and nearly 478,000 in fiscal 1999 at the nadir of the post-Cold War drawdown.”

The Air Force Association (AFA)   outlines the issue for its service. “The President’s fiscal 2023 budget request falls far short of national defense strategy requirements and will force the Air Force to surrender critical capability while foregoing new weapons purchases. This is particularly precarious as China rapidly increases both capability and capacity, the Air Force Association said after reviewing public budget documents. The AFA called for bipartisan support for increased investment in the Air and Space Forces to ensure the two most indispensable, flexible, and lethal elements of U.S. military force are strengthened in the face of growing threats from China and increasing risk in Europe to our NATO allies in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.”

The U.S. military recently endured dramatically inadequate funding during the Obama Administration.  The Obama cuts and the Biden inadequate funding come   on top of the dramatic cuts the military suffered.  Unfortunately, since the USSR’s fall, the threats against the U.S. expanded as Putin restored his military and China become a major threat.

All this shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Candidate Biden campaigned on a a promise to cut defense spending. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, describes Biden’s proposed budget, reflects “the world he wishes for — but not the world as it is.”

Photo: Fast attack missile boats attached to a group with the navy under the PLA Eastern Theater Command steam in formation during a maritime training exercise in waters of the East China Sea on February 22, 2022. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Du Kecheng)