Month: February 2022

Belarusians Restricted

The Department of State is imposing visa restrictions on Belarusian nationals under the “Khashoggi Ban,” a tool the Administration announced last year to counter transnational repression.  Today’s actions target multiple Belarusian nationals for their involvement in serious, extraterritorial counter-dissident activity.  The United States condemns all such activity, including the attempt to forcibly repatriate Belarusian Olympian Krystsina Tsimanouskaya during the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games last year.

The United States applauds the Belarusian Sport Solidarity Foundation’s efforts to support and protect the human rights of athletes amid the Lukashenka regime’s violent crackdown and ongoing repression of Belarusians inside and outside the country.  We stand in solidarity with Ms. Tsimanouskaya and all others who have experienced the regime’s attempts to silence criticism.

This action is part of a comprehensive effort to prevent and respond to acts of transnational repression by any government targeting journalists, activists, and dissidents for abuse, bringing together diplomatic, law enforcement, and intelligence tools to deter repressive governments and protect targeted individuals and groups, including within the United States. The Khashoggi Ban, a global visa restriction policy pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, is one important tool in this effort.

The United States reaffirms its support for the people of Belarus and once again calls on the Lukashenka regime to end its crackdown on members of civil society, independent media, the political opposition, athletes, students, legal professionals, and other Belarusians; to immediately release all political prisoners; to engage in sincere facilitated dialogue with the democratic opposition and civil society; to fulfill its international human rights obligations; to stop its coercion of vulnerable people and its retaliatory action against governments and groups that assist them; and to hold free and fair elections under international observation.  We will continue working with the international community to hold accountable those responsible for repression and human rights violations and abuses in Belarus.

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ISIS Leader Eliminated

A military operation carried out by U.S. forces last night in northwest Syria has resulted in the death of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the leader of ISIS – a significant victory in the global fight to disrupt and dismantle ISIS.

This successful operation is a credit to our brave service members and national security professionals, who undertook this mission at President Biden’s direction after months of careful planning. Throughout that process, the United States took extraordinary care to protect innocent lives and prevent noncombatant casualties. ISIS, however, once again revealed its disregard for human life, including that of women and children, when al-Qurayshi choose to detonate a suicide bomb, killing his own family.

Al-Qurayshi, also known as Hajji Abdallah, took over ISIS in October 2019 after years of serving as a senior leader in the terrorist organization. He was known for his brutal enforcement of ISIS’s vicious ideology and was a driving force behind ISIS’s violent campaigns to subjugate communities and oppress perceived enemies, including the Yazidis, a religious minority in Iraq. He coordinated the group’s global terror operations during a period in which ISIS expanded its geographic presence and attacks in Africa.

This operation was part of a larger mission by the members of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS to deny ISIS’s territorial control in Iraq and Syria, counter ISIS’s messaging and financing, and stabilize areas that have been liberated from ISIS to prevent the group from resurging. Al-Qurayshi’s death strikes a significant blow against ISIS. Now the United States and our partners in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS will continue the effort. Our goal is the enduring defeat of ISIS and that fight continues.

Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States, delivered a blunt message on Taiwan Thursday  proclaiming: “If, …the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States…keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States…in the military conflict.” Qin did not use the word “potential” when referring to military conflict. China has laid down the gauntlet. Will anyone pick it up? How the US and other free nations respond to Chinese aggression in the coming years will determine if the world is drawn into a major conflagration among nuclear powers. The rhetoric is intensifying lately as fast as China is deploying new offensive weapons.

Power politics is by far the prevailing paradigm that explains how the world operates. While some nation-states, especially the democratic West, prefer to use international institutions and diplomacy as the primary means to settle differences, it often is not possible when belligerent authoritarian leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping threaten or conduct warfare against other countries. Xi and the CCP leadership do not appear interested in a serious dialogue to calm the security environment in Asia. Some analysts in Washington now believe the US is much closer to a war with China than it is to a conflict with Russia. All three nations possess nuclear weapons. It could end very badly in either case.  

One of the main characteristics of the international system is that no country can fully know or trust the intentions of another nation-state. Treaties can be broken and verbal assurances by national leaders  retracted or ignored. Without trust and understanding there is little space left to prevent a new arms race from engulfing the major powers. This past week information out of China confirmed that it was able to use a mechanical arm on one of its new satellites to grab one of its “dead” devices and move it into another orbit several hundred miles away. American satellites tend to be geostationary and difficult to move, in other words, “sitting ducks.” In response to the new Chinese capability, the Pentagon is speeding up its space warfare program which was slated to have a similar satellite killing capability by 2025.

National security is critical to all countries and the United States is no different. We must be prepared to defend our country and support our allies. At the same time Washington also needs to improve its understanding of the “prime directive” driving others like China who oppose our way of life, just as they need to better understand us. Without war by other means, AKA talks across the negotiating table, the only space left for conflict is on the battlefield. Examining the situation today reminded me of an event I experienced in the fall of 1985 that drove home the point of how critical it is to understand “the other” and to capably predict events that will trigger foreign elite behaviors.

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Not long after the movie Amadeus came out, I served on the White House international advance team for trade talks in Beijing, China. As is customary, senior officials on both sides got together for the requisite social event in the Chinese capital. Selected high-ranked, Chinese diplomats and their American counterparts met at a theater for a showing of Amadeus. What struck me sitting among these leaders was how the entire group of Chinese officials in the audience were frozen in their seats with their eyes intently fixed on the screen during the entire movie. No one, literally, no one moved. When it was over the lights came on. Looking around I noticed the Chinese diplomats remained seated and were silently crying and wiping their eyes. Amadeus greatly impacted each of them. After discreetly inquiring, one Chinese official told me he didn’t know such beautiful music could exist in the capitalist West. He had never heard classical music in his life. He also disclosed that China did not, and would not be allowed, to produce this type of a creative show. By 1985 China had been open to the West for about six years or so. Yet even Beijing’s top-ranked leaders weren’t permitted to know about the West outside of the official propaganda produced by the CCP.

For over 70 years the CCP narrative delivered to the Chinese population, and its elite leadership, has painted a distorted picture of the West. They were taught the West is evil and that they should not believe anything coming out of a democratic state. They were brainwashed to trust no Westerner. Perhaps, worst of all, the indoctrination led those senior leaders to make very basic false assumptions about democracy itself. While we have a bit better understanding of each other today, Washington continues to be surprised by China’s technological and political accomplishments. 

As the communist giant rises like a Phoenix bird from the ashes of the Unequal Treaties period, the West must gain a better understanding of the source of Xi Jinping’s global modus operandi. He intends to make the return of Taiwan his legacy and to put China on a new path toward global hegemony. All one needs to do is look at a Chinese language world map where Beijing remains dead center. Understanding does not mean agreement with China’s goals or methods for achieving them. However, if we are to maintain the rules-based, international order that has produced an era of relative peace and prosperity in the world, we need to understand what drives Chinese behavior. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department. She lived for as time in China.

During the buildup to an international crisis, such as the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are overlooked undertones that create a more complex and nuanced environment than is presented in the daily news cycle. When it comes to Russian-Ukrainian relations, Turkey is one such confounding factor. While the world is watching and waiting to see if Vladimir Putin creates a conflict in Ukraine, Ankara is playing an active, although less visible, role as one of Moscow’s Black Sea neighbors. Which side it supports, however, is a separate and complicated question.

Seven years after Russia first invaded the Donbass region Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense released video of a TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) striking a separatist D-30 howitzer in eastern Ukraine. The strike was the country’s first confirmed use of the now ubiquitous TB2, a Bayraktar-manufactured drone that the Turkish military has used effectively in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh, which is an area of ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Baykar company chief technology officer is President Erdoğan’s son-in-law. 

According to a recently released Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) report, the Turkish-Ukrainian defense relationship is both understudied and potentially an important facet of how Russian political elites view North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support for non-member Ukraine, and its potential to be “used to justify an invasion to assuage Moscow’s concerns about a US-allied military presence along its borders.” The TB2 probably will not alter Putin’s long-term plans but it does reinforce the bureaucratic mistrust between political leaders in Ankara and Moscow. 

Turkey stood apart from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Since that time Turkish political leaders have paid close attention to its larger neighbor in an attempt to manage and deepened the relationship with Moscow. Since the 2016 failed coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan liberal institutions in Turkey have deteriorated and an authoritarian state has emerged. Erdoğan pushed away from the West and improved Turkey’s bilateral relationship with Russia. Putin was the first leader post-coup to call the Turkish president. Russia later sold Turkey its S-400 air and missile defense system. The United States warned Turkey of the threat the missiles posed to the F-35 fighter jet program in Turkey. According to the FPRI report, “Turkey was a Tier 3 member of the Joint Strike Fighter consortium and was slated to coproduce 100 F-35As and had explored purchasing a smaller number of F-35Bs for use by the Navy.” Ankara ignored the warnings and was expelled from the program and refused permission to purchase any F-35Bs. 

Erdoğan then made two juxtaposed decisions. Turkey signaled it would cooperate with Russia on 5th generation fighter technologies and also look into buying three squadrons of a Flanker variant for shorter term operational needs. At the same time, it also sought out Ukraine as a critical supplier of unmanned systems and turbofan engines for jet powered drones and aircraft for its indigenous defense programs. The Ukrainian-Turkish defense industry relationship remains intact today as each state produces items the other does not. Although it forces Erdoğan into a balancing act with Putin, the two leaders retain bilateral relations despite this issue.

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The Turkish-Ukrainian relationship pushes the Biden Administration into a tough position. Putin now can point to a NATO member state, Turkey, and demonstrate its military involvement and support for the leadership in Kiev as a justification for any across-the-border actions its takes against Ukraine. Erdoğan is attempting to force the Biden Administration into supporting its short-term fighter requirements in return for less military arms cooperation with Russia. Turkey walks a thin line in balancing its relationship with Moscow. This is especially so, according to the FPRI report, “Ankara can pursue a variation of this “fence sitting” policy [and] continue to export defense items to Kyiv, while simultaneously engaging Moscow, and resisting any US calls to independently support any coercive actions against Russia.” Aaron Stein, of FPRI, says that “Turkey is more likely to operate within the alliance, but resist calls to join US or EU calls to impose sanctions in response to an invasion.” 

The Turkish-made Stand-Off Munition, or SOM cruise missile, can be carried by Turkey’s newest drone: the Akinci. The risk it runs is a confrontation with Russian demands that NATO countries refrain from introducing long range missiles in Ukraine. The Biden Administration has “no interest in coercing its NATO ally from halting cooperation with Ukraine,” according to FPRI, but it is worth considering how third-party arms sales could negatively impact US interests in Europe. In the end, President Erdoğan relies on Turkey’s NATO membership to manage its relationship with Vladimir Putin. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

We have entered an American era when only a small group of privileged elites enjoy adequate representation.

Politicians ignore many voters. Union leaders act contrary to their members’ interest. Academics treat parents with contempt.

Many Americans have long suspected this was developing, but recent events have solidified their concerns. In particular, several stunning events have made it undeniably clear that the barons of government, labor and academia hold average Americans in utter contempt.

The concept of giving illegal aliens $450,000 in “damages” for being separated from the young people they defied the law and unlawfully crossed the border with is absurd, particularly when there is a significant possibility that those youth were transported for purposes of sex trafficking.

The very concept is extremely insulting, especially when the family of servicemembers killed in combat receive just $400,000. 

There is an increasing trend, supported largely in progressive-run cities, counties and states, to not cooperate with federal officials in dealing with the crime wave due to felonies committed by illegal immigrants.  Information on similar crimes committed by U.S. citizens that may have federal implications would be freely shared with Washington. In essence, illegals have been given greater rights than actual citizens.  The elected officials who subscribe to these “sanctuary city” measures have forgotten that they were elected to represent—and protect– Americans.

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Biden enjoyed the support of union leaders during his campaign.  That move was not backed by a substantial portion of rank-and-file members.  Their skepticism was well placed. In one of his first actions in office, the new President eliminated over 10,000 union jobs and cost union members about $2.2 billion in payroll.  The move shouldn’t have surprised anyone.

Energy and climate are key areas that have become a Progressive “Let them eat cake” moment, as the glitterati of politicians flew into Glasgow, Scotland on private jets and rode in stretch limousines to lecture mostly Americans on how to cut back on energy uses. Biden ignores the reality that the burden of the Paris Climate Accords, which he so vigorously supports, lays mostly on U.S. citizens, and will have relatively little impact on the environment. the President displays little regard for his constituents who can barely afford to drive to work or heat their homes due to his foolish energy policies. 

Senator John Barrasso (R-Wyo) chairman of the Committee on Environment and Public Works and member of the Committee on Foreign Relations, writing in USATODAY noted that “the climate deal punished America’s energy producers with expensive and burdensome regulations, it gave other countries U.S. taxpayer-funded subsidies and generous timelines. Countries like China got a free pass to pollute for over a decade. With abundant low-cost coal, China and India would put our manufacturers at a huge competitive disadvantage…”Forgetting whom he was elected to represent, Biden, while killing the Keystone Pipeline, nevertheless facilitated Russia’s similar project.

Elitist have used the very real threat of COVID as a wedge to wield ever greater power.  The absurd notion of suspending healthy police officers, particularly when crime is rising due to nonsensical no bail policies borders is gross arrogance. But many politicians don’t care.  After all, they can access taxpayer dollars or campaign contributions to provide private security for themselves. 

The most blatant example of elitist disregard for the average American can be seen in education. The ruling class of academic leaders, both in government, school administration and in union leadership puts students and their parents on the bottom of the list. Terry McAuliffe became the poster boy for arrogance when he proclaimed that parents had no say in their children’s curriculum, but the issue runs even deeper. Progressive and union campaigns against charter schools, and the increased diversion of funds away from actual teaching and towards other programs that have nothing to do with actual education is disgraceful.

Even Marie Antoinette would blush.

NASA’s goal of returning to the Moon achieved another milestone on January 24.

The space agency successfully conducted its second launch sequence of the system that will take U.S. astronauts back the lunar surface.

“The test demonstrated the ground launch software and ground launch sequencer, which checks the health and status of the rocket sitting on the pad,” noted a NASA release.

In the coming months, an uncrewed Artemis I mission will launch from Kennedy’s Launch Complex 39B. It will serve as the first integrated flight test of the Artemis deep space exploration systems. The first in a series of increasingly complex missions, the mission will provide a foundation for human deep space exploration and demonstrate the U.S. commitment and capability to establish a long-term presence at the Moon and beyond.

NASA’s powerful new rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), will launch astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft nearly a quarter-million miles from Earth to lunar orbit. 

The Moon plan is twofold: it’s focused on achieving the goal of an initial human landing by 2024 with acceptable technical risks, while simultaneously working toward sustainable lunar exploration in the mid- to late 2020s.

Three key elements comprise are involved.

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The first is the SLS rocket. The Space Launch System is an American super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle under development by NASA since 2011. It replaces the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles, which were cancelled by the Obama Administration along with the rest of the Constellation program, a previous program aimed to return to the moon. 

The second is the Orion spacecraft. NASA’s Orion spacecraft is built to take humans farther than they’ve ever gone before. It will serve as the exploration vehicle that will carry the crew to space, provide emergency abort capability, sustain the crew during the space travel, and provide safe re-entry from deep space return velocities.  The crew module is capable of transporting four crew members beyond the moon, providing a safe habitat from launch through landing and recovery. Inside the familiar deep-space capsule shape are advances in life support, avionics, power systems, and advanced manufacturing techniques.

The crew module is capable of transporting four crew members beyond the moon, providing a safe habitat from launch through landing and recovery. Inside the familiar deep-space capsule shape are advances in life support, avionics, power systems, and advanced manufacturing techniques.

The third is the Gateway lunar orbiting outpost. It will serve as a multi-purpose outpost orbiting the Moon that provides essential support for long-term human return to the lunar surface and serves as a staging points for deep space exploration.

When the first crewed flight test of the SLS and Orion, Artemis II, takes place, astronauts will return to the vicinity of the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years. At the end of this mission, NASA intends to have tested every hardware, software, and operational component of Artemis III except for the actual landing on the surface. 

Artemis III will be the culmination of the rigorous testing and nearly one million miles of flight demonstrations on the deep space transportation systems that NASA will accumulate during Artemis I and II. When Artemis III lands the first woman and next man on the Moon in 2024, NASA will focus on building a sustained presence on the lunar surface in preparation for long-term development on the Moon and the human exploration of Mars. 

There has been a significant amount of anxiety from some manned spaceflight advocates concerning whether the Biden Administration will continue with the effort.  The Obama-Biden Administration slashed the manned space program, prompting Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Mississippi)  to note that “It is no secret that this [space] Committee is concerned that the support within NASA for the [Space Launch System] and Orion (a manned spacecraft) is not matched by the [Obama] Administration. While this lack of commitment is somewhat puzzling, it is not at all surprising. The President has made clear that he does not believe space exploration is a priority for the nation and has allowed political appointees within the administration to manipulate the course of our human space flight program. These decisions should be made by the scientists, engineers, and program managers that have decades of experience in human space flight…The Administration has consistently requested large reductions for these programs despite the insistence of Congress that they be priorities.”